Tim Tebow: Not a Lock to Join Archie

Every underclassman who has won the Heisman Trophy and returned to school the following season since 1976 has entered the next season to answer the same question: "Can he win it again?"

Every year since then, the answer has been a resounding "no." Many factors have contributed to Archie Griffin's fame and reign as "The Only Two-Time Heisman Trophy Winner" continuing for over 30 years now.

This year, it could all change.

Tim Tebow became the first sophomore ever to win the Heisman Trophy in 2008. Tebow has a very legitimate chance to win the trophy again this year. There are many perils along to road to history however.

Here is a rundown of the top Heisman contenders and their chances to make it to NYC, as well as odds to win the most coveted individual award in American sports:

10. Colt McCoy, QB, Texas—Will need a VERY BIG game against Oklahoma, and several others, to be a legit contender. Winning 10 games is probably a MUST for his candidacy.

The fact that he is the QB at THE UT will certainly help, but, much like Tebow, must depend on his defense to do enough for them to win games.

Odds of being a finalist (a top-five finish): 11 percent
Odds of winning: 1 percent

9. Graham Harrell, QB, Texas Tech—Will put up monstrous numbers, but will also need some help from his defense to win enough games for people to pay attention. Good bowl game and victory over Oklahoma would have people paying attention, but many worry he is just another Sunny Cumbie or Kliff Kingsbury.

The fellow listed just ahead of him on this list will also hurt his chances, as will the caliber of quality Heisman contenders in the same region of the country in which he plays.

Odds of being a finalist: 15 percent
Odds of winning: 1 percent

8. Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech—Essentially same situation as Harrell, with a twist. Crabtree could be a finalist without needing all the wins like Harrell, given everyone's fascination with him and Heisman WR contenders. (see: Larry Fitzgerald)

Fantastic receiver, but same questrion: Is it the system?

Odds of being a finalist: 20 percent
Odds of winning: 4 percent

7. Jeremy Maclin, WR/KR, Missouri—Quite possibly the most entertaining player in the country, and by far the most electrifying that does not play QB. He will need to reproduce last year's numbers with a few more touchdowns, and probably needs a Mizzou victory over the Sooners to become a finalist.

However, even in a loss, with a lot of big time plays, he could sneak onto some ballots.

He also will have to share votes with other Big XII contenders, and his teammate, who is better known, and probably would have won last year with a victory over OU.

Odds of being a finalist: 35 percent
Odds of winning: 5 percent

6. Armanti Edwards, QB, Appalachian St.—Perhaps the most exciting college football player since Michael Vick. Unbelievable athlete who has a huge victory under his belt already. Has virtually no chance to win, but I think this is about where he truly ranks.

Definitely the best non-FBS player in the country. Still has one more year of eligibility left and could return his senior year to compete for the award. A big game, especially a win, against LSU in Baton Rouge could go a long way in voters' minds.

Odds of being a finalist: 10 percent
Odds of winning: 0 percent

5. Tim Tebow, QB, Florida—The Human Wrecking Ball returns to try and win the SEC, another national title, and another Heisman. I think ultimately the schedule, the banging, and more handoffs to Percy Harvin in the red zone doom his chances. Also huge games by other contenders in big games won't help.

Odds of being a finalist: 85 percent
Odds of winning: 10 percent

4. (tie) Chase Daniel, QB, Missouri/Sam Bradford, QB, Okalhoma—Will be winner-take-all in Big XII, and with a big game, winner may even become front-runner for Heisman.

Ultimately, the Southwest and West splitting their votes. All the BIG XII stars are too much to overcome in somewhat of a popularity contest.

Odds of being a finalist: Daniel: 65 percent,  Bradford: 45 percent
Odds of winning: Daniel: 10 percent, Bradford: 8 percent

3. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia—Truly a wild card. Could easily run away with the award with a good year and a 10 or 11 win UGA team. However, just like UGA, he will fail to live up to expectations as they are one year away, and the schedule is daunting.

Will be frontrunner in 2009, assuming this year's winner does not return. Look out everyone else, UGA will be VERY VERY scary in 2009.

Odds of being a finalist: 65 percent
Odds of winning: 16 percent

2. Pat White, QB, WVU—Best player in the country, and has been for three years, if not for injury. Amazing with the ball in his hands. Plays a lot of inferior competition, which will hurt his candidacy, as will so much adulation being poured upon Noel Devine.

Ultimately, if he stays healthy and WVU wins, he's your winner. Not sure we can trust both of those to happen. Without a doubt, if those things happen, and barring HUGE games from the No. 1 player on the list, WVU will have its first Heisman winner.

Odds of being a finalist: 70 percent
Odds of winning: 20 percent

1. Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State—Has huge momentum coming into the season after his performance late in the season. The media, especially in the Midwest and East, love Big Ten RBs. Big games against USC, Wisconsin, Penn State, Illnois, and Michigan will go a long way in cementing him as the frontrunner.

Was unstoppable late last season, (even by LSU) while injured. You have got to believe with over 1,600 yards and 15 TDs last year with and injured hand, shoulder, and ankle, he'll be ultra productive this year. Plenty of time on TV will help his case as well. Make it eight Heismans for Ohio State.

Odds of being a finalist: 79 percent
Odds of winning: 25 percent