Can an Undefeated BYU Play for the National Championship?

Many people are claiming that BYU can sweep the field and finish with a 12-0 record this year.  Although your writer does not think BYU will even win the Mountain West, lets assume, for argument sake, that the Cougars will finish the season undefeated.  It would naturally follow that not only would BYU be a lock on a BCS bowl berth but that they would also be knocking on the door of the National Championship Game.  Why do so few mention this?  Is it absolutely beyond the realm of the possible that a team that starts out in the top 15 (12 according to Rivals) and then goes undefeated does not have a shot at the national championship?  Should BYU do the improbable and run the table, there are several stars which seem to be lining up in favor of the blue and white sneaking into the big game.

We all know that BYU does not have to be no. 1 to get into the title game, being silly old number 2 will do just as well.  So who stands in their way, should they go undefeated?  Let’s look at the usual suspects:  USC, Ohio State, Oklahoma and any team that wins the SEC.  These are all teams that could go to the championship game even with one loss.  I will arbitrarily rule out teams from the ACC and the Big East because none of them can finish undefeated and teams from these two conferences can not make it to the title game if they have one loss.

So let’s look at this more carefully.  Right away we can see that USC and Ohio State play each other.  It is inconceivable that should OSU lose they could still be voted into the championship game especially if it meant a rematch with USC.  So I say that if OSU loses at USC and USC eventually goes undefeated, even an 11-1 OSU is out of the picture as far as the national championship game is concerned. With one loss, OSU could conceivably claw their way back into the title game (if it is not against USC) however, with two title game losses in a row, one has to believe, (maybe I should say wants to believe) that Ohio State will not be given another chance this year unless they sport an unblemished record.

What if the Buckeyes beat the Trojans then both teams win out the rest of the season.  This could imply a rematch which, with the popularity of these two teams is not out of the question.  So I would say that in such a case BYU could get bumped out of the picture if USC loses early to OSU but then wins the remainder of their games.  BYU loses out to an 11-1 USC but not to an 11-1 Ohio State.

Next up is Oklahoma. Oklahoma is another powerhouse that could easily make it to the big game even with one loss, especially if that loss comes mid-season to the Longhorns and the Sooners recover to win the Big 12 crown.  OU could definitely be a roadblock for BYU, and if OU has only one loss it would have to come extremely late (in the Big 12 title game) to leave a crack for BYU to slip past OU.  None of the teams of the Big 12 North will go undefeated in the regular season so they will not be in contention for the championship.

Finally we come to the SEC.  BYU would need to hope that, like last year, the winner of the SEC has 2 losses if they want to slip by a 2nd ranked SEC team.  Presumably, an undefeated and 3^rdranked BYU might be able to leap over a two loss SEC team in the final BCS computer tallies based on two fewer losses.  Still, I tend to expect to see an SEC team in the championship game so if BYU is to make it into the game it probably will not be at this conferences expense.

Other Aspects in BYU’s Favor

Programs in Flux

This year in particular there are a handful of elite programs that are in transition, Michigan, Notre Dame and LSU to name a few.  Although these teams seem unlikely to be able to challenge for the national title, they are certainly in position to wreak some havoc on opponents who do have a chance at number one.  Particularly, these teams could play a role in eliminating one of the big boys by handing them one of their two losses (and effectively knocking them out of the race).  For example, Michigan has plenty of time to get its act together before playing Ohio State.  Notre Dame could likewise play the spoiler against USC.  Texas, though also not expected to be in the title game, could certainly do some damage to some large foes in the Big 12.  Speaking of which, although those in Lubbock believe they have a chance at ultimate glory, the Red Raiders seem unlikely to be able to string together 13 straight wins. Still, Tech is certainly capable of beating any team on any given day and they could be the ones to provide Oklahoma with one of the two losses necessary to knock the Sooners from contention.  Meanwhile, BYU needs to sit back and hope the SEC beats up on each other to the point no one is left standing.

BYU’s Winning Streak

At 10 games, BYU has the longest winning streak in the nation.  BYU would be enjoying a 22 game winning streak at the end of the regular season.  Their competitors for the spot in the championship game would have lost at least 2 games in that stretch.  The computers will certainly ignore a streak spanning over two seasons but will the voters?

BYU has to take care of business first, but should they escape the year unscathed, this season may present a rare chance to go for all the glory.  If the Cougars are to go undefeated they will probably need to see two losses on the part of the PAC champ, 2 losses on the BIG 12 champ and one loss for Ohio State.