Ben Gordon: By the Numbers

This article is an original publication of Dabullz.com

With the Chicago Bulls signing of Luol Deng Tuesday to a deal, fans are left wondering, what about Ben Gordon?  Past rumors have suggested that the Bulls’ ownership will not be willing to go into the luxury tax.  The Chicago newspapers are reporting that Ben Gordon’s agent, Raymond Brothers, is demanding that Gordon receive as much as Deng because he has been the Bulls top scorer the past three seasons.  Today, on Waddle and Silvy, John Paxson stated that he can now make Ben Gordon a more cost certain offer based on their budget sheets now that the Deng deal is done.  So what might Ben Gordon’s contract numbers look like?  Here is a look, by the numbers.

First, we must look at Luol Deng’s contract.  Luol Deng signed a deal worth $71 million over 6 years, with the possibility of being worth $80 million after incentives.  If the NBA rules that Luol Deng is unlikely to reach the criteria for his incentives, his first year salary will count as $9,372,937.29.  If the NBA rules that Deng is likely to reach the criteria for his incentives, his first year salary will count as $10,561,056.11.

Next, the Bulls total salary situation should be looked at.  Adding Deng’s first year salary to the rest of our contracts, assuming he does not meet the criteria for his incentives, the Bulls will be at approximately $63,491,910.  Adding Deng’s first year salary to the rest of our contracts, assuming he does meet the criteria for his incentives, the Bulls will be at approximately $64,680,029.  (Salary numbers are assuming the Bulls do not retain JamesOn Curry).

The luxury tax figure for the 2008-2009 NBA season will be $71,150,000.  This means, assuming Deng is not determined by the NBA to be likely to achieve the criteria for his incentives, the Bulls would have $7,658,090 left to offer Gordon in the first year of his contract.  This means the Bulls would be able to offer Gordon approximately $58.1 million over 6 years and be able to stay under the luxury tax.  Assuming Deng is determined by the NBA to be likely to achieve the crieteria for his incentives, the Bulls would have $6,469,971 to offer Gordon.  This means the Bulls would be able to offer Gordon approximately $49 million over 6 years.  Ben Gordon will not agree to that deal considering he turned down an offer worth more over a period of only 5 years last summer.

It is unlikely that any of the Luol Deng likely to achieve incentive criteria numbers will have to be used.  The NBA determines if a player is likely to achieve his incentives based on the previous season.  Since all of Luol Deng’s performance incentives are team oriented, he is unlikely to be labeled as likely to achieve criteria for the incentives because of the Bulls season in 2007-2008.

The next big number to look at is $6,404,749.  That is the amount of Ben Gordon’s qualifying offer.  A first year offer of $6,404,749 equates to a deal worth $48.5 million over 6 years.  Therefore, any deal less than $48.5 million causes Ben Gordon to make less money than he would if he takes the qualifying offer next year, so any offer of less than $48.5 million will be absolutely unacceptable.

If the Bulls are serious about retaining Ben Gordon, their leading scorer for the past three seasons, they will have to go into the luxury tax, unless Gordon gives the Bulls a bargain or John Paxson makes a money saving trade.  Going into the luxury tax is a bit of a costly move.  Not only will the Bulls have to pay double for every dollar they are over the luxury tax threshold, but they will also lose their share in the pot of tax dollars at the end of the season.

It should be expected for the Bulls to go into the luxury tax, just for one season, to retain their leading scorer for the past three seasons.  The Bulls have been the most profitable team in the NBA since Jordan retired, despite only making the playoff three times and only winning one playoff series.  Since the NBA introduced the luxury tax, the Bulls have received $9.2 million from other teams being taxed.  Bulls ownership should just pretend that they are paying this years luxury tax with money they received in the past as the result of the luxury tax.

Ben Gordon’s agent, Raymond Brothers, have said that Ben Gordon should get what Luol Deng received because Gordon has been the Bulls leading scorer the past three seasons.  Is it crazy for Ben Gordon to demand $80 million?  Not exactly, if Gordon is willing to go out of his way to earn his $80 million through incentives.  NBA teams can offer incentives up to 25% of players salary for a season.  So if Ben Gordon signed that $58.1 million over six year deal, the Bulls could pad it up to $72.6 million with incentives.  Not quite the $80 million Gordon is looking for, but definitely an improvement over $58.1 million.

$72.6 million is the most the Bulls will be able to offer Gordon without hitting the luxury tax.  Could the Bulls do anything to make this offer more attractive?  They could try offering Gordon a signing bonus.  NBA teams are allowed to give players up to a 20% signing bonus.  In such a scenario, Gordon would still have a base contract worth $58.1, and a potential $14.5 million in incentives, but he would receive $17.4 million from the Bulls, making the deal much more attractive to Gordon.  While he receives $17.4 million as the result of his signing bonus next year, he would still count against the salary cap as approximately $7.66 million.

The Bulls could potentially make an attractive offer to Gordon using incentives and/or a signing bonus.  However, the Bulls may need to go into the luxury tax just a little if Gordon wants more total garaunteed money throughout his contract.

All salary figures are from ShamSports.com.

For more articles from Andrew Wamboldt, visit Dabullz.com.