Jon Fitch - How Can He Beat Georges St. Pierre?

As all MMA fans should know, anything can happen in a fight. Who could have predicted the unheralded Gabriel Gonzaga knocking out top 5 heavyweight Mirko Cro Cop via head kick, the latter’s signature strike? Or that unknown African fighter Sokoudjou would KO 23:1 favorite “Lil Nog” at PRIDE 33? Indeed, 2007 was regarded as the year of the upset, with several big names falling to sizable underdogs in multiple organizations.

The unpredictability of MMA is one aspect that makes the sport so exciting to watch. All it takes is one small mistake or a well-timed punch to end a fight, no matter what the scorecards may say. Yet there is one adage that has withstood the test of time, and is the weapon of choice for gambling aficionados: styles make fights.

When trying to predict the winner of a fight, it is essential (naturally enough) to size up the combatants to see how they fare against each other: who has the better wrestling, striking, jiu-jitsu, and cardio; the edge in experience; recent winning streaks, etc. The less tangible aspects such as heart, mental status, chin, and preparation also need to be accounted for if one is to choose the winner. Often at the highest level in pro sports, it is the mental edge that enables one athlete to overcome a similarly-skilled opponent.

That brings me to the point of this editorial: how can welterweight contender Jon Fitch beat the champion Georges St. Pierre, when the two face off on August 9 at UFC 87 in Minneapolis, Minnesota? For those who are unfamiliar with Fitch, he has quietly been trudging his way through the UFC welterweight division, picking up eight straight victories. This brings his win streak to a total of 15 bouts, with his last loss coming six years ago.

Along the way, Fitch has beaten notable fighters such as Diego Sanchez, Thiago Alves, Josh Burkman, and Roan Carneiro. However, GSP will be far and away his toughest test yet. The welterweight champ is coming off his first successful title defense in which he avenged a loss to Matt Serra. The French-Canadian phenom has no plans of relinquishing his belt anytime soon.

So how exactly does the 30-year old Fitch stack up against 27-year old GSP? For starters, Fitch will have a slight size advantage over GSP; however the champ is rather large for a 170 lb. fighter himself, so I don’t think size will affect the result of this match-up. Wrestling is the proverbial bread-and-butter of these two warriors, and it is here where I believe GSP has a notable advantage.

The champion was able to withstand the wrestling onslaught of competitors such as Josh Koscheck, Matt Hughes, Frank Trigg, and Sean Sherk; and then proceeded to beat them at their own game. He should be able to do the same to the challenger, whose wrestling skills are not up to par with his teammate at the American Kickboxing Academy, the aforementioned Koscheck.

Fitch will be extremely hard-pressed to score a takedown on GSP, and was put on his back by the much smaller Diego Sanchez himself. Fitch may have been captain of his wrestling squad at Purdue, but credentials don’t mean everything, as GSP admirably showed against 4x All-American and national champion Josh Koscheck when they fought.

What about the jiu-jitsu department? Fitch just received his black-belt from Dave Camarillo, while GSP is currently a brown belt. Just like in wrestling though, credentials aren’t all-decisive, and I think they have about equal jiu-jitsu. We haven’t seen much of either man’s guard, but I doubt that Fitch will be able to sweep GSP or sub the champ off his back. For his part, GSP has excellent ground and pound, top control, and submissions, and therefore should outlast Fitch on the ground for a decision or finish him in the later rounds.

One category that many critics are overlooking is the stand-up game. I believe that GSP’s skills might be slightly overrated here, while the striking of Fitch is neglected. The challenger can throw combos and has a good straight left, as he showed in the Carneiro fight. He will need to be aggressive and pressure GSP standing up, before he gets taken down. Flying knees will work to Fitch’s advantage in this fight, as eventually GSP will probably look for the takedown.

If Fitch finishes the fight, I think it will be by KO or TKO on the feet, and such a probability cannot be ignored, because the challenger can strike if need be. In his last contest, Fitch was very cautious against a dangerous and underrated Chris Wilson, and did not want to risk losing his title shot. This is why it is unfair to judge his striking potential from that fight alone. He has been training his stand-up diligently at AKA for five years now, and definitely has the capacity to hurt GSP with his punches.

As for the intangibles, Fitch is very tough to break down mentally, and is riding that 15-fight winning streak (though I must say GSP would probably beat all those guys too). Cardio and experience should not be a detriment to either fighter, though this will be Fitch’s first time in the spotlight. GSP has been accused of being shaky upstairs in the past, and often gets really nervous before fights. He has visited a sports psychologist and appears to have worked out any kinks in his mental armor. Both athletes should be well prepared to do battle.

If GSP gets comfortable and confident in a fight, he can steamroll through pretty much anybody. That is why Fitch will need to be aggressive early on, in the hope of forcing a mistake and then pouncing on the fallen champ. Fitch needs to threaten GSP with his striking in order to make him think twice about shooting for a takedown. Otherwise, GSP will just wrestle his way to a victory, combining top control with ground and pound to soften up Fitch for a potential stoppage.

Fitch likes to out-grind his opponents, beating them down physically and mentally, eventually going for the finish when an opportunity presents itself. The problem though, is that GSP could prove to be a nightmare opponent stylistically for him. I’m not sure if Fitch is a magician in his spare time, but he will have to pull something magical from his hat in order to win.

Matt Serra was able to overcome GSP when the champ was a 9:1 favorite. However, a controversial strike to the back of the head began the series of events that led to Serra scoring a TKO victory in the first round. Fitch may not be so fortunate, and if he does manage to win, what will his reward will be? A rematch down the road, with a possible rubber match. It is hard enough to beat GSP once, let alone twice in a best-of-three series.

So we return to my initial question: can Fitch beat GSP, in a five-round fight no less? Of course he can, the man is a very talented and hard-working pro fighter, who is currently ranked as the no. 2 welterweight in the world. GSP is only a 3:1 favorite, so it wouldn’t be a huge upset if he lost. And like I noted earlier, anything can happen in a fight. However, there is a big difference between being able to beat somebody and actually doing it.

It is a lesson that Jon Fitch may have to learn the hard way.