Before Tyson Gay dramatically went down with injury in the heats of the 200 meters at the US Olympic Trials in early July, the event promised to be an enthralling duel between himself and the Jamaican marvel Usain Bolt at the Beijing Olympics.

With Gay now out of the running, the 200 meters looks to be Bolt’s for the taking. Here’s how I see the event unfolding.

Gold: Usain Bolt (Jamaica)—With the three fastest times this year including a breathtaking run of 19.67 seconds in Athens, Bolt looks far and away the standout competitor in this event. It would be a huge shock if he was to get beaten in the final.

He should be in front or very close to the lead coming into the straight and his long strides will make him impossible to catch.

Silver: Wallace Spearmon (USA)—Spearmon is the fourth fastest runner of all time in this event with a personal best of 19.65 seconds, and probably has the best closing speed of anyone in the race. However, his bend running remains a big problem.

If he is in contact with the leaders coming off the bend, Spearmon should be able to overrun everyone except Bolt and grab the silver medal, but if he is too far behind at the halfway mark, he will find it difficult to run down his compatriots Walter Dix and Shawn Crawford for the remaining podium positions.

Bronze: Walter Dix (USA)—Dix ran brilliantly at the US Trials, winning the 200 meters in 19.86 seconds. He also has a personal best time of 19.69 seconds, making him the seventh fastest man in history over 200 meters.

Dix hasn’t run since the Trials, so his form is an unknown. However, if he races up to his potential in Beijing, expect to see Dix on the podium and challenging for gold. His success will also depend on how he is able to recover after running in the 100 meters earlier in the schedule.

Fourth: Shawn Crawford (USA)—The reigning Olympic champion is back to peak form this year after a few lean seasons by his standards. At the Trials he was beaten by Dix on the line, and showed that he is still a brilliant bend runner in the 200 meters.

The other competitors can’t afford to give Crawford too much of a head start over the first half of the race, as he will be difficult to catch if given the opportunity. He should contend with the other Americans for a medal.

Fifth: Jaysuma Saidy Ndure (Norway)—Ndure put his name into serious contention for this event when he ran a blistering 19.89 seconds to win the 200 meters at the World Athletics Final at the end of last season.

He hasn’t really competed in many 200 meter races this year, so his form is somewhat unknown. However, he has had some great results of the 100 meter distance recently, indicating that Ndure is in peak form coming into Beijing and could challenge for a medal.

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