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MMA Math: Does It Really Work?

Matt ScottCorrespondent IJuly 29, 2008

As most hardcore MMA fans will try and tell you, "MMA Math" is not applicable to the sport, as there are too many variables. For those of you unaware of the myth, it has to do with using fighters' previous victories and defeats in comparison in an attempt to predict the outcome of a match.

I would like to explore a different kind of MMA Math, one that has to do with the records of their previous opponents that they defeated. As I will demonstrate, the fighter with the best record is not always the one who wins the fights, but it is the fighter who holds wins over opponents with the best records (if that makes any sense). Let me try to explain.

Now bear in mind, I won't be using the fighters entire professional record. I am only interested in their record from fights inside the UFC.

Take UFC 86 for example.

Patrick Côté vs. Ricardo Almeida

The fighters that Cote has defeated inside the octagon had a combined UFC record of 6-2. (Winner)

Almedia's previous opponents had a combined UFC record of 2-2.

 

Joe Stevenson vs. Gleison Tibau

Stevenson: 11-5 (Winner)

Tibau: 1-1

 

Josh Koscheck vs. Chris Lytle

Koscheck: 14-5 (Winner)

Lytle: 0-4

 

Tyson Griffin vs. Marcus Aurelio

Griffin: 6-2 (Winner)

Aurelio: 0-1

 

Quinton Jackson vs. Forrest Griffin

Jackson: 17-3

Griffin: 4-5 (Winner)

 

...okay, so it can't predict every fight, but it really does have an extremely high success rate. Just thought I'd let you all in on it.

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