Yesterday, I explained the theory behind using performance in close games in one season to pick potential risers and fallers in the next season.
Basically, it works off the assumption that if you get a lot of breaks one year, you won’t get them again the next year and vice versa. I also outlined the candidates for risers in 2008.
Today is time for the other side of the story—the potential fallers.
For these purposes, a “close game” is defined as a game where the final score is eight points or less—in other words, one touchdown and conversion could tie or swing the game.
Teams that made the main list had at least three more wins than losses; teams on the watch list had two more wins than losses and played at least four close games.
Only BCS conference teams (including Notre Dame) were analyzed.
Arizona State Sun Devils, 10-3 overall, 3-0 in close games
Arizona State was a surprise in Dennis Erickson’s first year. It was picked to finish sixth in the conference, but instead the Sun Devils won 10 games and had a conference record identical to USC’s mark.
Since Erickson generally has a great second year and he will have a senior returning to start under center, it would seem unlikely that ASU will fall off too much, but you never know.
Boston College Eagles, 11-3 overall, 3-0 in close games
Boston College was one of the milder surprises of 2007. The Eagles were picked second in the ACC’s Atlantic Division, but they ended up winning the division and even spent a little time at No. 2 in the polls.
Having the best quarterback in the conference definitely helped make that possible.
Matt Ryan especially helped in the close games, none more memorable than the win over Virginia Tech. He is gone now, and so are some other key players.
The expectations have fallen with BC now projected fourth in its division, and a regression to a normal (near .500) success rate in close games would help make that prediction come true.
Kansas Jayhawks, 12-1 overall, 4-1 in close games
Kansas was definitely one of the big surprise teams of 2007. I would tend to doubt that anyone, even Mark Mangino, would have expected a 12-1 season.
With them accounting for 25 percent of the Jayhawks’ total wins, close games were a big part of Kansas’ success last season.
Most people expect the Jayhawks to come back down to earth, similar to how Rutgers did in 2007 after its dream 2006 season. It’s hard to argue with that considering how almost no one gets that many breaks two years in a row.
Kentucky Wildcats, 8-5 overall, 4-1 in close games
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