Come to Think of it...Forget Goats and Bartman - Cubs Season Adds Up

As the discussion turned toward the seriousness of the current Cubs-Brewers series, my thoughts wandered to what could have been, what might have been, what was supposed to be.

From early to mid June, the Cubs were sitting at or around 19 games over .500 and leading the division by five and one half games at their high water mark. Supposedly on their way to an easy division title. 

So...were they truly that much better back then, only to have since come crashing back to earth for reasons unknown? Bad karma? Curses? Or was there something else at play here?

I say the latter. For when analyzing what truly has occurred since then, I notice four key aspects of Cubs baseball that changed.  And these changes more logically explain why the Cubs are now fighting for the division instead of running away with it.

1) First of all, the Cubs started out with a schedule that was heavily front-loaded with home games.  They played 34 of their first 57 games at Wrigley Field, where they have won better than 70% of their games.

Since early June, they have played more games on the road than at home, where they have not played well at all, winning barely more than 40% of their games.

2) Next, the level of competition has increased since then. They played all of their games against the weak NL West in the first half of the schedule, leaving no games against the likes of San Diego or San Francisco for the remainder of the year. The Cubs played very well against the West, going 23-10.

3) Also, interleague play started. As has been the case throughout baseball in the past, and certainly exemplified by their dominance in the All-Star games, the American league is the tougher league. The Cubs played to a losing record against the junior circuit, going 6-9 versus the AL.

4) Finally, in a strange scheduling quirk, the Cubs played the Pittsburgh Pirates twelve times before the end of May. And they won nine of those games.

So, while you might blame injuries to Soriano and Reed Johnson, I say there is a perfectly reasonable explanation for why the Cubs looked like world beaters early on and have since sort of fizzled.

Not that there haven't been other factors at play. Certainly, injuries affect all teams, to varying degrees, and those do take a toll on a team. And being the hunted, instead of the hunter, can bring about added stress.

But to think that the Cubs were once this team that was head and shoulders above everyone else just simply isn't true. In fact, it all adds up when you analyze it. 

All of which means that it's going to be no cake walk again this year for our Cubbies. Which is alright. I mean, it's the destination that matters, not the route taken along the journey.

Enjoy the ride.  It may get a bit bumpy along the way, but hey, nothing worthwhile is ever easy they tell me.  Come to think of it, it all makes sense if you just give it some thought.