Fantasy Football IDP Focus

Derrick Johnson to move to ROLB

In a bit of a surprise move, Herm Edwards has shifted around his linebackers. Fourth year man Derrick Johnson moved to the ROLB spot (commonly the weak side in KC). Donnie Edwards moved to the LOLB positional (strong side) with Napoleon Harris remaining the starting Mike.

Statistically, this bodes well for the former Longhorn who should improve on the 94 tackle 4 Sack 2 INT 3 FF 6 PD statline he posted last year.

Oddly enough, the big free agent acquisition by the Chiefs, Demorrio Williams, was taking second team reps. Williams, who signed a five-year deal with Kansas City in the off season, figured to challenge Napoleon Harris for his starting job and at least be in rotation for snaps.

Fantasy Impact: This move elevates Johnson into low end LB2 status. Already one of the better play makers in the league from the strong side, this move should see increased total across the board. Knock Donnie Edwards down slightly as he will not see as many free looks from the left. Similarly, Demorrio Williams takes a hit in value as he likely takes over for Donnie Edwards next year on the strong side. While Napoleon Harris’ hold on the mike spot is a tenuous one, I think you have to view the recent moves as a slight vote of confidence.

Thomas Davis moves to the WILL position
As per the Charlotte Observer

In a move that fantasy owners and Panther fans have clamoured for in the past few seasons, Thomas Davis will finally get his shot to produces from the weak side, moving the LB competition to his old strong side position where Na’il Diggs and Landon Johnson are expected to compete for the job.

Davis, a converted safety drafted in the first round in 2005, will be expected to use his speed to make plays. Playing the SAM spot last year, he will surely build on his 87 tackle 3 Sack 1 INT 2 FF 5 PD statline from one year ago.

Insiders lean towards Landon Johnson (formerly of the Bengals) to win out the SAM spot over Na’il Diggs. Johnson signed a 3 year $10 million dollar deal in the offseason to join the Panthers. With the loss of Kris Jenkins and Mike Rucker, I don’t see the SAM spot for Carolina being as productive as it was last year. I believe that was a product of Davis’ speed and a superior defensive line.

Fantasy Impact: Davis elevates into a solid LB3 option with this move. Move him up your draft boards accordingly. Believe it or not, this also gives a boost to Jon Beason. He was originally drafted as a weak side LB and moved into the middle thanks to a Dan Morgan injury. With Morgan gone, many believed that a top half pick spent on an LB (who turned out to be Dan Connor of Penn State) could signal a trip back to the weak side for Beason. With Davis’ move to WILL, Beason’s job at the MIKE gets solidified. The losers in this (fantasy-wise) are the guys competing for a job; Landon Johnson and Na’il Diggs. The winner of this battle won’t come close to replicating Davis’ production at SAM. Connor takes a slight knock as well as his foreseeable future has him backing up Beason and grooming to play SAM.

Denver Mike battle looming?

It appears as though Niko Koutouvides, brought in to take the Broncos MIKE job after DJ Williams vacated the spot with his move back to WILL, will have some competition this year in camp.

The favorite: Niko Koutouvides. Signed from Seattle where he spent four years playing behind perennial pro bowler Lofa Tatupu. Niko is a sure tackle and has good instincts but is not terribly fast.

The number one contender: Nate Webster. Last year’s starting SAM linebacker for the Broncos. Had a strong start to his season while DJ Williams found his game and saw his production dip when DJ excelled. A faster LB than Niko K and will be better in coverage but has poor instincts and regularly fails to recognize play action and misdirection. Head Coach Mike Shanahan has been quoted as saying that Webster’s “workouts and leadership give him a real shot at the job. It’s his natural spot and apparently, he’s bulked up a bit too.”

The Longshots: Spencer Larsen, drafted in the sixth round this year out of Arizona and Jordan Beck, a special teams ace for the Broncos last year. Don’t expect either of these guys to take the job out of training camp. Larsen or Beck gets a look due to injury or poor play. If I’m a betting man, I take Larsen as insurance to a Nate Webster MIKE job win.

My thoughts:I don’t like Nate Webster as a MIKE as the job is as much of a mental one as it is physical. Facing the likes of Larry Johnson, LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren McFadden regularly means that your MIKE can’t be getting burned every other play. I think that you have to take the sure tackling, good instincts guys in Niko Koutouvides. He won’t blow you away with athleticism but he will stop the gap until the Broncos can draft a difference maker to man the middle.

Fantasy Impact: Like the Denver RB situation, the water gets murkier. If you can get Webster (and maybe even Larsen) to hedge your bet on Niko K, I’d do it. The reward for the gamble is the Denver Mike job, historically a great producer with DJ Williams and Al Wilson being the latest to man the job, each with good success. If roster space is tight and you need to pick a winner in the dark, take Niko K. I think he wins the job based on smart play rather than blind speed. Bump Nate Webster and Spencer Larsen up a bit because of potential and Niko K down a bit because of uncertainty.