NBA Offseason Review: Western Conference Part I

With the Warriors' signing of Andris Biedrins to a long-term deal and Sasha Vujacic's agreement with the Lakers, the NBA offseason seems to be headed for a quiet period, at least compared to the frenzy of activity throughout the first three weeks of July.  From the bottom of last season's standings to the top, here are some thoughts on the offseason as well 2008-2009.

(Note: the rankings are not where they are expected to finish this year, but rather the 2007-2008 final standings).

Part I will deal with teams 15-11 and Part II will discuss the top 10 teams in the loaded West.

West 2007-2008 Lottery Teams: The Bottom Feeders

15. OKC (insert name here)

Key returning player(s): Kevin Durant

Key draft picks: Michael Westbrook (Number four overall)

Key Trades: None

Key Signings: None

Key Losses: None

Aside from Westbrook, this is OKC's offseason: "Detroit acquires the draft rights to Walter Sharpe and Trant Plastaid from Seattle in exchange for the draft rights to D.J. White" (nba.com). With the first pick in the 2009 NBA Draft... (Although karma might make the ping pong balls bounce down to the fourth spot).

14. Memphis Grizzlies

Key returning player(s): Rudy Gay

Key Draft Picks: See below

Key Trades: Traded Mike Miller, Brian Cardinal, Jason Collins, and Kevin Love to Minnesota for Marko Jaric, Antoine Walker, Greg Buckner, and O.J. Mayo. Traded Donte Greene and a 2009 second round pick to Houston for Portland's Darrell Arthur in a three-team deal.

Key Signings: Marc Gasol

Key losses: None

Memphis at least made an honest effort to improve.  Kevin Love is a solid player, and may be the better player overall than Mayo. The jury will be out on this trade for a few years, but it's almost certain that Mayo will sell more tickets than Love will, especially in the short-term. 

Memphis chose not to use its sizeable cap space this offseason, and it's doubtful that the team will improve much, especially since they traded Mike Miller in the Mayo trade and got back Antoine Walker and Marko Jaric. Expect flashes of brilliance from Mayo and Gay between bouts of early in the shot clock three-point-itis from OJ and 'Toine.

Also expect a top five to top 10 draft pick. However, give the Grizzlies credit for at least trying to build for the future, while trying to energize their fan base. Marc Gasol could turn out to be the next Pau, and Darrell Arthur could be a steal. If they can snatch a marquee free agent in the next few years, they could be a low-seed playoff team.

13. Minnesota Timberwolves

Key returning player(s): Al Jefferson

Key draft picks: See below

Key trades: OJ Mayo for Kevin Love and Mike Miller (see Memphis above). Traded Mario Chalmers to Miami for two future second round picks and cash. Traded a conditional second round pick to Philadelphia for Rodney Carney, Calvin Booth, and a first round pick.

Key signings: None (Unless Sebastian Telfair gets his act together).

Key Losses: None

Minnesota could regret trading Mayo if he becomes a star, and as discussed above, Mayo is a better box office ticket than Love. Mike Miller, though, makes the trade favor Minnesota personnel-wise, and if Love turns out to be a double-double machine at center and a good passer, then the Wolves will be very happy.

Minnesota also essentially stole a first-rounder and two players from the Sixers when Philly dumped salary to sign Elton Brand.

With Miller, Jefferson, and Love (and addition by subtraction in getting rid of Walker), Minnesota will probably improve 5-10 games from last season. Unfortunately, even 15 games puts them at 37-45, which could be 10+ games out of the playoffs. The Wolves will probably stay where they were in the West standings despite their improvement.

Mid-to-Low-Lottery Teams:

12. LA Clippers

Key Returning Players: Chris Kaman

Key Draft Picks: Eric Gordon (Number six overall)

Key Trades: Traded a conditional second round pick to Denver for Marcus Camby

Key Signings: Baron Davis (GS)

Key Losses: Elton Brand (PHI), Corey Maggette (GS)

Depending on how much Boom Dizzle elevates his teammates with his play, and Marcus Camby stays healthy and focused on defense, the Clippers could potentially be a playoff team. However, this is unlikely after the loss of Brand and the somewhat underrated Maggette.

However, if Camby (shamelessly stolen from Denver—what were Nuggets thinking?) can be used as trade bait later on, the Clippers could have a solid team in the future.

In the short-term, if Davis and Camby are on the bench for any significant stretch due to injuries, it could be a long season in LA. But if chemistry can be developed and if Davis plays like he did for the Warriors, the Clippers could end up challenging for the eighth seed. Like the Warriors, this team is hard to predict, and will probably settle just outside the playoffs in the ninth, 10th, or 11th spot.

11. Sacramento Kings

Key Returning Players: Kevin Martin, Ron Artest, Brad Miller

Key Draft Picks: Jason Thompson (No. 12 Overall)

Key Trades: None

Key Signings: Beno Udrih (re-sign); Bobby Brown could be an interesting energy bench player, but won't light the regular-season league on fire.

Key Losses: None

Depending on what they do with Ron Artest, the Kings could either improve to a 9th seed or start a fire-sale of assets and rebuild.  Kevin Martin is a young star, but the Kings did not help themselves much in the offseason.  Sacramento did keep Udrih from helping a contender like the Spurs or Lakers, but Jason Thompson will probably not help immediately. 

To make matters worse, Miller will be suspended for the first five games of the season for violating the NBA's drug policy. This could set the tone for the rest of the season, or fire up the players to compete harder without a starter in the lineup.  Either way, the Kings, even with Artest, are probably stuck in what used to be Warrior-land (low lottery).