In a previous article I documented the scoring performance trend for the USC Trojans football team over the entire Pete Carroll era stretching from 2001 to 2007. The trend is impressive in multiple respects and deserves accolades. Many Trojan fans have fretted, however, as the offense has averaged a more pedestrian level of 30.46 and 32.62 points per game the past two seasons. A more complete game by game look at the scoring trend yields the following trend:
A polynomial fit through the trend has a nice upward spike towards the end of 2007 when all the players were finally healthy. There were a couple of noted stretches over two most recent seasons, however, when the Trojans failed to approach the overall average of 36.24 points per game for the Pete Carroll era.
Of course, multiple reasons exist when teams struggle to score points. In the previous article I outlined the rather large effect that a decline in turnovers forced by the defense has had on the scoring situation. Fewer turnovers equates to poorer field position and a greater number of long field drives. Without a turnover, USC receives the football via a punt instead of starting near mid-field where the Trojans started so many drives in the past thanks to their stellar defense or occasionally strong special teams play.
Through an intermediary I sent the gist of the turnover analysis to Head Coach Pete Carroll and he was kind enough to look at the document and relay back two comments. Number one: he agreed that the analysis was correct and it accurately reflected the large effect that turnovers and positive field position can have on scoring. Most teams , for example, have a 10% chance (or less) of scoring when starting backed up near their own end zone. Move the ball out to mid-field and the scoring probability jumps well over 50% for most any team.
Secondly, however, Coach Carroll commented that also "big plays" on offense are down for the USC Trojans compared to the past few years, excluding the 2001 season of course. This insight I suspect is much easier to digest and more obvious for fans that have watched the Trojan offense the past two seasons.
Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart were more exciting to watch at QB than the reliable and efficient John David Booty. Reggie Bush was a human highlight reel that recent running backs such as Chauncey Washington and others did not match. And the wide receivers in 2007 did nothing to make fans forget Mike Williams, Dwayne Jarrett, or Steve Smith. 2008 may of course be a whole different story.
Big plays are an important lens for viewing any offense. According to an unpublished NFL report "big plays" are one of four metrics that tend to correlate with winning. The four metrics mentioned are:
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