Is Hendrick Motorsports Back? Or Was It Ever Gone?

Sunday’s race marked the first time this year the Hendrick organization has had the dominant cars in the race. Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. were fast from the first practice onwards, and the winner was never truly in doubt (even though the tires were). This weekend saw several claim “They’re back.” But, did they ever actually “leave?” How bad has their performance been this year?

In 2007, it seemed as though the only thing that could stop Hendrick Motorsports was…well…nothing. They had won 18 of the 36 races, secured the top two spots in the championship (Jimmie Johnson first, Jeff Gordon second), had the outright pace and strategy to have won 20 or more races (luck factored into that), and had signed the sport’s most popular driver (Dale Jr.) away from his family’s team. Plus, the organization’s COT program was far and away the best (Joe Gibbs Racing couldn’t keep up with them late in the year). The entire group looked poised to dominate NASCAR’s top series for many more years to come.

However, in battling for a championship in 2007, the Hendrick group (especially the 24 and 48 teams) fell behind the other teams (especially Joe Gibbs Racing) in the COT program, which would ultimately hurt them in the early part of the season.

Many asked, after the early portion of the season, “What’s wrong with Hendrick? Where did they ‘go?’ Why are they not winning races? Will they come back to the form they had last year?”

However, did they really “leave?” Or were they simply the victim of a few bad breaks that made their performance look worse than it actually had.

On paper, the Gibbs team (and the Toyota package) is the strongest this year, with eight wins in the Cup Series. Hendrick currently sits on three (two coming from fuel mileage races).The Gibbs team looks to have their number.

However, things may not be as clear as the results say they are. Yes, the Gibbs team has eight wins (I’m only focusing on the Sprint Cup Series, not the Nationwide Series), but seven have come from Kyle Busch. Denny Hamlin and Tony Stewart have one win between them, and both have fallen into hot water in order to qualify for this year’s Chase for the Sprint Cup. The JGR “dominance” is more a product of Kyle Busch and the 18 car/team their performance this year.

Plus, while the Hendrick was, indeed, behind JGR on performance, many of their poor results have come from bad luck, not poor performance.

Jimmie Johnson had a car fast enough to at least finish in the top five at Daytona (in both races), Charlotte, and New Hampshire. However, in both Daytona races, he spun out (once from a tire failure in February, the other from contact in July) and finished 27th and 23rd in those races. He ran up front at Talladega, but got shuffled out of the lead pack late and finished 13th. He had an engine failure at Charlotte and finished 39th. He was caught out by the rain in New Hampshire while running in the top five, but did manage to finish ninth. Had he finished where he had been running in those races, his standing would be higher than fifth and would have at least one more win to his credit.

Jeff Gordon was also fast in both Daytona races, but dropped out in February due to suspension failure and finished 39th, and was spun out while running second in July, and finished 30th. He was going to finish in the top five in Las Vegas, but was involved in a crash with Matt Kenseth with two laps left and wound up 35th. He had a car to win at Talladega and was running second with two laps left, when he got shuffled out of the lead group and was involved the last-lap “Big One,” finishing 19th. He ran in the top five throughout the New Hampshire race, but was hurt by the rain and finished 11th. Had those races gone in his favor, Jeff would also be higher than his sixth place standing and with at least one win on his record this year.

Dale Jr. may very well have won the Daytona 500, but a mistake in strategy (not pitting under a late caution) cost him dearly, as he came home ninth. He was a victim of NASCAR’s “Watergate” in Fontana, where water had been seeping through the tracks cracks and onto the surface, which caused two wrecks early on. He would have won in Richmond (after Denny Hamlin’s tire problems) had Kyle Busch not spun him out, which saw him finish 15th. Likewise, he might have won in Charlotte had he not cut a tire and brushed the wall (although fifth was a nice comeback in that race). If not for those races, Jr. might be leading the standings at the moment, with a handful of wins to his name.

There have been some races this year where the Hendrick team has looked very average. Jimmie Johnson was never fast in Las Vegas and was pretty ordinary at Richmond and Darlington. Jeff was mediocre in Michigan and Pocono, and abysmal in Texas. Dale Jr. only had a mid-pack car at Texas (despite his pole) and fell back in Chicagoland. However, their end results are far from an accurate depiction of how they have performed this year. Hendrick Motorsports never actually “left,” they were just victims of their own success in 2007.