Could Juan Pablo Montoya Win the Allstate 400 at the Brickyard?

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Get this. Juan Pablo Montoya has an average start, mid-race position and finish of second at the Brickyard. At least he does in his lone NASCAR race there. Of course he’s won the Indy 500, in a former, open-wheeled life. So maybe we should give his single season NASCAR stats more credit they would seem to deserve.

Indy should be a good track for Montoya. Besides his history of success there, the track is flat and fast, traits that play into JPM’s fantastic car control. He could win this race, if the car and the team are up to it. And that, I doubt.

Tony Stewart, 2007’s Indy winner has the best Loop Stats for Indy. The Loop Data cover the last three Allstate 400s, only. Smoke has the top Driver Rating at 121.4 and has led 109 laps and has a stat best 76 Fastest Laps. But going back, beyond the three Loop stat years, Tony has two wins and four top fives, six top tens and a pole. His average finish is 7.6. He drives for Joe Gibbs Racing, which fields, maybe the best cars in Cup this year. He looks like a favorite.

Friday at Indy, Stewart-Haas Racing showed off the #14 Office Depot/Old Spice Chevrolet that Stewart himself will drive in 2009. Tony was excited. He also talked about all the things that the team has yet to do in preparation for Daytona in February. As good as he is, I just think that the distractions of his new venture cancel many of his apparent pluses for any race this year. I can’t pick Stewart to win.

The list of drivers I like at Indy is short. There is, I think, a reason that all but two of the winners of this race have been NASCAR Cup Series champs at some point in their careers. It takes a special driver to win the Brickyard. You don’t get the big, three wide packs of the plate tracks - and no “big one” wrecks that thin the field of quality contenders. You sometimes get flukey seeming winners at Daytona and Talladega. Not at Indy. Long green flag runs also separate the quality.

Kevin Harvick is one of only two Brickyard winners to have never been a Cup champ. His Ave Finish is 7.7. He’s run 432 Loop laps in the top fifteen - 90% and a stat best. Three top fives and five top tens go with a second best Ave Running Position of 8.1. Happy is the third best Driver Rated at 108.7. Harvick could win again.

Matt Kenseth could win his first. The #17 team has been coming on of late. Matt has the fourth best DR of 102.9 He’s good at Indy, with four top fives and five top tens. He runs up front as his Ave Running Position of 8.5 and 404 Laps in the top fifteen show.

Mark Martin has been telling anyone with a pen or microphone that he WILL win this weekend at the Brickyard. And he has a history at the track that shows he could pull it off. He suffers from the same weakness as Montoya though. Can his team measure up? If it can, Mark’s five top fives, nine top tens and fifth best Driver Rating of 102.9 says he has the stuff.

Beyond the Loop top five, the Hendrick threesome of Jimmy Johnson, Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt Jr are contenders. So are 2008’s strongmen, Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards. Greg Biffle, Jeff Burton and Brian Vickers could do it too.

But Matt Kenseth is my choice. He’s paid the dues and has the pedigree, to join the exclusive company of Brickyard 400 winners. If you have to go outside of the establishment, take Carl Edwards.

Photo credit: BethAnne Heisler - ON PIT ROW