As I've been following the Mats Sundin saga over the last month, everyone seems to have their own opinion about what decision he will make, and why. Reading all of these thing, I'm left wondering what Mats may be thinking about and how he will come to his decision, whenever that happens.
What are the criteria that are important in his decision about where to play next season? What are the relative weights he will put on them?
A valuable tool to help make a complex decision is a decision matrix... Put your criteria in the columns, your options in the rows, assign relative scores, multiply by some weights, add it all up and -- voila! -- your highest scoring alternative is the way to go (although experience shows it isn't always so easy). So here is my take on how this process might go.
[Mats: Feel free to make use of this, no cost to you. If it helps to speed up your decision, that would be swell.]
The Options
To simplify things, I've reduced it down to the three main alternatives that seem to be realistic and getting the vast majority of the coverage: the Montreal Canadiens, the Toronto Maple Leafs or the Vancouver Canucks. Other options like retirement or playing in Europe, while they are quite possible, are much too difficult to speculate about in this format, so I'll leave them out.
The Criteria
I decided upon the following five criteria, and assigned weights to them, totalling 10.
1) Desire to Win the Cup : This one is pretty obvious. (Weight = 3)
2) Money : I don't think this is a huge one for Mats, as long as he is not grossly underpaid, like taking $3 million to go play in Detroit or something silly like that, it probably does not matter too much if he is making $7 million or $10 million. (Weight = 2)
3) Enjoyment: Hey, after all, it is a game after all. This takes into consideration things like teammates and line-mates, travel schedule, point production and the team's "system", etc. My feeling is that this is Mats' most important criteria. (Weight = 4)
4) Loyalty to the Leafs and the Feelings of "Leaf Nation" : This is a touchy one, but my take on it is that after the way things went this past year at the trade deadline (and considering the same could happen next season), I don't think this will weight too heavily. I can't understand why there are some Leaf fans who seem to think that Mats owes them something... but if I were Mats, I would not care too much how that type of fan feels. (Weight = 1)
5) Stupid things that Mike Gillis says on the radio: Like playing in the Olympics in the same city that you play (Weight = 0).
OK, let's forget number 5. So, only four criteria then.
The Scores
For each criteria, I am giving each alternative a base score from 0 to 10, and multiplying by the weight to get a weighted score, which will be added to get the total for each team. I will try as much as possible to use quantitative measures to justify the scores.
For the chance to win the Cup, we can look at the current betting odds for the 3 teams to win the cup. Currently, the Habs are 8:1, Canucks 31:1 and Leafs, 66:1. Roughly, the betting world is saying that the Habs are 4 times more likely than the 'Nucks and 8 times more likely than the Leafs to win it all. Translating this to our scale, I award for chance to win the cup:
Montreal:8, Vancouver:2, Toronto: 1.
Money is pretty easy, although it's not clear if Montreal has offered 7 or 8 million, I'll go on the low side (if for no other reason, due to higher taxes in Quebec!):
Vancouver:10, Montreal:7, Toronto:7.
Enjoyment: Well, being quantitative gets a bit tougher here. This criteria is partially tied to the first one, because, hey, winning is always fun. So the Habs have the early advantage. Also, scoring goals is fun. Again, the Habs scored the most last year at 261, compared to 231 and 213 for the Leafs and Canucks, respectively).
Also to the Habs advantage is their speedy system and the quality wingers that could flank Sundin if he chooses to play there. Travel schedule hurts the Canucks here, but at least there are plenty of other Swedes to hang out with, make meatballs, crank the Abba, go shopping at Ikea, or whatever.
As for Toronto, obviously he has friends there already, but at the same time, it did not look to me like he was enjoying himself a lot towards the end of last season. In the end, there is no huge winner here, but the edge goes to the Canadiens.
Montreal: 6, Toronto:5, Vancouver:4.
Last, but not -- oh wait, it is least -- loyalty to the Leafs and the feelings of "Leafs Nation". Obviously, going with the Leafs gives a perfect score here, and there is some sentiment that signing with the Habs is unforgivable.
Toronto: 10, Vancouver: 5, Montreal: 1.
The Matrix ("What'll it be? The red pill, or the blue one?")
So, for the final (weighted) tally, I get:
Montreal: 3x8 + 2x7 + 4x6 + 1x1 = 63 pts
Toronto: 3x1 + 2x7 + 4x5 + 1x10 = 47 pts
Vancouver: 3x2 + 2x10 + 4x4 + 1x5 = 47 pts
Assuming that all of this is correct (and why wouldn't it be?), the decision matrix clearly has Mats choosing to take the bleu, blanc, et rouge pill.
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2 months ago
regardless of all your math, I do not think that Sundin will end up in Montreal. It'll either be Toronto or Vancouver, and I think Mats loyalty to the Leafs' Nation is a lot more significant than one might think, therefore, if he decides to play, Sundin will be a Leaf.
from 2 months ago
Actually, I agree in a way... I think that the importance of loyalty to Toronto really is the hardest part to read here, since there have been strongly opposing signals at times about that. At times, you would think he would never consider playing for another team, and at other time, you get the impression he may be dying to get out of Toronto. Your statement is a bit funny if you read it: "it'll be either Toronto or Vancouver,... but therefore, he'll be a Leaf". :-) I actually think Vancouver is the least likely option... I mean, he has said very clearly that money is not that big a factor, which is really Vancouver's only advantage. If he just wants to hit the golf course/fishing hole early, he might as well play in Toronto.
from 2 months ago
Where was the Loyalty of the leafs when they tried to trade him???
He's a hab.
2 months ago
Mats loyalty will weigh in heavily in his decision. He probably won't go to the leafs after they dumped the rights to talk to him to Montreal, but if he plays for Montreal he will be visiting the ACC over and over again. It's likely Vancouver or nothing.. and if I could get 50-50 odds on that, I'd make the bet.
2 months ago
Great read....Looking forward to seeing Sundin in the Bleu Blanc Rouge!!!
2 months ago
i don't think he will be coming back to the nhl
from 2 months ago
I heard yesterday, that it is really unlikely that he will retire. He stated that he is looking to make his decision on August 1st and that there are still "several" teams in the mix and that retirement is uinlikely. So i beleive he definetly will be back
2 months ago
Yup sorry, don't see Montreal as an option. Quite frankly I think their performance last year was akin to Vancouver's the year before A.K.A. overachieving. Combine that with fact he would basically be a traitor to the leafs nation and have to face them umpteen times next year.... just strikes me as a no-go.
Sundin would surely make a difference to the Habs lineup but after him they still have a weaker defense and goal tending. He's stated one of his main criteria will be going to a team where he feels he can have an immediate, tangible and positive impact. Quite frankly that sounds a lot like Vancouver. They have beyond solid goaltending, excellent defense and an improved forward core from last year that will noticeably improve with him in the lineup.
from 2 months ago
You're an absolute idiot if you feel Vancouver has better defense OR goaltending than Montreal!!! Wow, what a ridiculous thing to say.
from 2 months ago
Anybody who knows anything about hockey will say that Roberto Luongo is a top 3 goalie in this league and on most nights, arguably THE best goalie in the league... Montreal has Marc Denis, Jaroslav Halak and Carey Price (who's going to be really consistently good some day, just, after a few more games under his belt)....
...the Vancouver Canucks had the 7th best Goals Against Avg in the league, the Canadiens - 13th... if that doesn't show that the Canucks have a better defense AND goalie, i don't know what does...
...i rest my case...
from 2 months ago
There is no way Vancouver is a better team than Montreal. Vancouver is better in goal, actually the best in goal with Luongo, but the rest of the team is so lame that they didn't even make the playoffs.
Vancouver is as good as the Florida Panthers were when Luongo was there : not in the playoffs.
On the other hand, Montreal not only made the playoffs, but finished 1st in the East. That with a very young team that will be even better this year because of the experience. Add Tanguay and Laraque, even better.
Vancouver doesn't have a shot at anything. Montreal could very well come out of the East, meaning a Cup Final, with or without Sundin.
from 2 months ago
nicely said watch sundin is coming west ill say i told u so.......
from 2 months ago
bias comment, sorry can I ask who was number 1 in the eastern confrence? and who beat out a team that went to the stanley cup finals for that spot? thats right, Montreal Is a way better contender than Vancouver, now let me ask you this, what happened to the last star player to go to Vancouver ? yeah not very much, and I dont think we will be seeing the Vancouver Canucks in any stanley cup finals anytime soon, along with this Mats Sundin would not travel across Canada, when his true Canadian home is here in Ontario, and what better way to celebrate Ontario's hockey heritage than to play for the Most franchised team in the NHL, The Montreal Canadiens
2 months ago
I love this article.
2 months ago
Quotes from Juky 24 :
An Assistant GM:
"They (the Canadiens) finally feel they are going to get him (Mats). They are dying to make an announcement soon."
A Scout:
"People have stopped buying that the Leafs are going hard after Mats. Everyone is startin gto assume it will be the Habs."
A Swedish Player:
"Mats is preparing tonight for something that is coming soon. Many of us wold be shocked if it made it past Monday....and even more shocked if it wasn't Montreal."
A senior NHL person:
"It is all falling into the Habs lap. The Rangers are out of it and Mats does owe it to himself to play another season. To try and bring Stanley back to Montreal for the Centennial."
2 months ago
Mats Sundin has invested his earning very wisely and money is not a major mitigating factor. I like the comment of the other swedes in Vancouver; However, one has to put the additional flight time back to Sweden into the mix.
Overall, Mats, I feel has a huge desire to play for Toronto. I think he would most like to retire a Leaf and play his final couple of years there. It should be Toronto's drive, regardless of how they want to rid themselves of their overpaid underperforming players, they shouldn't treat Mats with the similar way Dave Keon was treated - make him an open decent offer ands tell him it is their intention to have him retire as a Leaf and he will be a Leaf until such time that he decides to hang up his skates - and even beyond if he so desires. He has been there for them - they should return the level of devotion.
2 months ago
It is out of loyalty to TO and his age that he would even consider retiring. This idea that both Mont and TO are offering him 7mil is ridiculous because Mats was blown away by Vancouver's offer.
Michael seems to think Carey "Hole in the Glove" Price's goaltending is far superior to Robert "Future Vezina Winner" Luongo. Its from Roberto that Vancouver will be a contender, and having Sundin could be what they need to put them on that track. No, its Vancouver or nowhere I'm sorry to say Leafs fans because I don't think the Center of the Universe, or anywhere else, is willing to shell out that kind of dough.
2 months ago
if it had been mats' only desire to win the cup, why wouldn't he have waved his no trade clause at the deadline? to be perfectly honest, the man is decidedly rich (see richard's comment, two before mine), and he's had all kinds of glory playing for sweden over the course of his career.
the thing that habs and canucks fans can't see is that the reason he's been so dedicated to toronto is because he's lived here for over a decade, and feels the pain we all share. so my guess is that he'll come back to play for seven mil, and will retire in may with the dignity and respect he so clearly deserves.
from 2 months ago
Because he didn't want to be a rental... he's said that.
So he feels the pain and likes it? If he goes and plays for the Habs or Canucks, maybe wins a cup (at a minimum, has a better season than the last few in Toronto), you are implying that he is giving up his dignity and respect? I don't understand that mentality, and my opinion is that Sundin wouldn't care much about the opinions of people who feel that way.
2 months ago
You guys are delusional. If Mats actually wanted to stay in Toronto, he would have allowed himself to be rented out in order to better the young talent around him. But he didn't, so I think he's going to retire. I'm a habs fan. I think he'd fit in to Montreal very well but I don't think that will happen. I ONLY see him retiring. Sorry Laffs fans, now you have nothing.
2 months ago
Where was the loyalty of the Leafs when they tried to trade him I wonder??
I don't think Mats cares about the leafs for what they tried to pukll on him.
He's going to be a Hab fan...
2 months ago
by Michael
from 3 days ago
"You're an absolute idiot if you feel Vancouver has better defense OR goaltending than Montreal!!! Wow, what a ridiculous thing to say."
I may or may not be an idiot for numerous reasons but if you think Montreal's defense and ESPECIALLY goaltending are superior to Vancouver's you are either heavily medicated or should be for mental disorders.
Other than Van's top 6, which is only 1-2 good players away from being pretty damn good (Hello Mats) they have all the other pieces to go deep. One of the best goalies in the world? Check. Top quality defense core with even more depth than last year? Check. Tough fourth line to punish opponents? Check. Excellent shutdown third line with speed that can also score? Check. Sedin/Sedin/Bernier for your second line?(who wouldn't be happy with that as your second line?) Check. Now we just need one or two players to add to Demitra on our first line (why yes you do look nice in that canuck jersey Mr. Sundin) and that would = one solid team.
2 months ago
Any one who is stupid enough to think Sundin will play for montreal needs to get the head checked. Sundin will not ruin his career to play in montreal and look like a traitor. There is a 70 % chance he will play for Canucks, 25% he will play for TO and a 5 % he will play for the habs. Anyone who says montreal has better defence and goaltending the Canucks are not true hockey fans. Vancouver is an overall better team then Montreal. Montreal plays in a division with no chalenge i mean comon your playing ottawa, toronto,buffalo and boston 8 times last year and you think your the best team. If you don't beat teams in the north east your pathetic. The canucks are facing talented teams like the wild,flames,avs,and oilers 8 times every year. The canucks are the better team and sundin will come here.
2 months ago
Mats Sundin will sign with the Habs. The offense is best in the league and the Defense has mixed skills and Strength, Komisarek was one of the top in the league for hits, Markov is sometimes compared to Lidstrom, Hammer, Bouillon are solid defensively, Dandenault can play F or D, Tanguay is better than Ryder, the Kostitsyns should have a great season with 20+ goals, the goalies will have a competitive environment, one will emerge number 1 and the effort to win games should help the club, add in Kovalev, Plekanec, Higgins offense, the strength of Laraque, character of Begin and we have one solid team. Look at the lines if Sundin signs!
Tanguay- Sundin - Kovalev
S.Kostitsyn - Plekanec - A.Kostitsyn
Higgins - Koivu - Latendresse
Begin - Lapierre/Chipchura - Laraque/Kostopuolos
Markov - Komisarek
Bouillon - Hamrlik
Gorges - Dandenault
O'Byrne
Price
Halak
Denis
That's 3 First Lines and a gritty hard hitting line. We have at least 3 solid defencemen who will perform and in goal it all depends on the competition. Having Sundin on our roster is going to get us into the finals guaranteed.
about 1 month ago
Sundin will NOT sign with the frogz. How many times do I have to say this......."Mats doesn't give a HOOT about the cup, LIKE AT ALL" He's a swede. period. He's got olympic gold, and that's all that matters to him in regards to championships. Outside of North America, NO ONE CARES ABOUT THE STANLEY CUP.
Oh, and last tiem I checked, how would the habs sign sundin? With what? Peanuts? They just signed Tanguay...
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