Chaser Or Racer: NASCAR's Race To The Chase (Indianapolis))

            For the 14th straight year., NASCAR’s top division heads to the much hallowed Indianapolis Motor Speedway for the annual Brickyard 400 (okay, I know its technically called the Allstate 400 at the Brickyard, but it will always be the Brickyard 400 for me). The much needed week off gave drivers and teams a chance to escape from the pressure surrounding them, especially the drivers trying to clinch spots in The Chase. The Chicagoland race two weeks ago proved to be a high for drivers Greg Biffle and Kevin Harvick, who both scored top five finishes and cracked the top ten in standings (Biffle is seventh while Harvick is ninth). However, while neither driver is currently in my “danger zone” (tenth through sixteenth), I’m still not picking either one to make The Chase right now. Each has been very inconsistent and can easily fall out of the top twelve after Indy (seventh place Greg Biffle is only 62 points to the good). With that, here are the drivers currently in tenth through sixteenth and their chances of cracking the top twelve.

10th place Tony Stewart: The series’ return to Indy will be a welcome site for Smoke. This race has always been the most important to him (even more so than the Daytona 500) because of his prior races as an Indycar driver. He’s always been fast here and remains driven and focused to win here, despite his two wins in this race. Don’t be surprised if he breaks through with a win this weekend, and vaults himself out of hot water to make The Chase. If there’s one race where Tony can kick start his season, this one is it. If he can win this race again, he’ll be in a very good spot to make The Chase. If not, he may need to start worrying.

11th place Kasey Kahne: Another driver who came from open wheel racing (he ran in USAC for several years), Kahne needs one more shot of momentum to help him and his team. They seemed to have it in May, when he won the Sprint All-Star Race and Coca-Cola 600 on consecutive weekends, and June, when he won at Pocono and finished second at Michigan. However, that momentum they had is starting to taper off a little but and he’s slipped to eleventh. All the same, I wouldn’t be too worried about him just yet. He was in a similar situation to this in 2006, and had a great stretch run to make that year’s playoffs. Look for him to regain some momentum this weekend.

12th place Denny Hamlin: In his three years as a Cup driver, this is the first time Hamlin has been on the bubble to make NASCAR’s playoffs (a nice accomplishment considering his relative inexperience at the Cup level). Much of the reason Hamlin finds himself in this spot is bad luck. He got caught up in the big wreck at Dover, got caught out by the rain at New Hampshire, and had ignition problems in Chicagoland. He and his team are not only talented enough to make The Chase, but are also capable of putting together a championship run. I firmly believe he’ll be a force to deal with after the Richmond race in September. Plus, even if he is still on the bubble heading into that Richmond race, his performance there in March (he led more than 380 laps before a tire failure) says he’ll be very strong there. I see no reason to be worried about this camp.

13th place Clint Bowyer: The lowest ranked of the Richard Childress Racing cars, Bowyer has been on a steady slide downward since the start of June. That slide has now seen him drop out of the top twelve. To this point, he and the 07 team have been one of the most inconsistent teams in the series; they have nine top tens, but also have eight finishes lower than twentieth. It seems that one week this team runs very strong, and the next week seems lost. Will they regroup and qualify for this year’s Chase? It won’t be surprising, but neither would them missing the Chase, at this point at least.

14th Brian Vickers: If not for a blown engine coming to the checkered flag, Vickers might have finished in the top five at Chicagoland. This team continues to improve with every passing race and are on the cusp of getting a win. However, like Bowyer, they’ve been inconsistent this year, but have shown several times to have the pace to win. If a little bit of good luck can be found, this team can make a serious run into the top twelve, and could be an underdog in this year’s championship. However, before they can do that, they’ve got to crack the top twelve. The speed is there, Vickers and the team just have to close the deal.

15th place David Ragan: Ragan continued his own improved season with an eighth place finish at Chicagoland. Unfortunately, the drivers ahead of him in standings finished ahead of him in the race. So, even though a top ten will usually gain you some ground, Ragan actually lost a little. Still, he and the team are only 133 points out of seventh. He’ll have to continue to run in the top ten to gain ground on the drivers ahead of him. However, that is certainly possible and this bunch could be another underdog in The Chase, assuming they can put it all together and qualify for it.

16th place Ryan Newman: Newman and the Penske team continue to hang on by the smallest of threads in this Race to the Chase. Their tenth place run at Chicagoland was certainly a nice finish for them, but was due to strategy instead of outright pace, something the entire Penske organization has struggled to find (despite their two wins this year). Tenth was a nice “pick-me-up” for Newman and the team, but it won’t help them make The Chase. They’re too far behind the others in speed.

*As a side note, Martin Truex Jr., for all intents and purposes, will not make this year’s Chase. Their penalty from Daytona will be to overcome.