It's always tough to gauge incoming rookies especially in terms of your fantasy draft. This year you will not see any QBs having any kind of impact for any team ,and it is also hard to imagine any WR standing out (there definitely is not a Calvin Johnson type in this past year's draft).
While WRs seem to have the easiest transition and most productive rookie seasons, look for the best fantasy rookie to be among the RBs.
Darren McFadden by rank leads this group of rookie runners, but will he be the most productive this season? He is certainly the most talented, but is he any every down back? Or will he suffer from the same growing pains that Reggie Bush is still figuring out—how to make the smooth transition from college to the pros.
With that being said I feel as though many people will hype up McFadden as they envision him as being comparable to last year's rookie sensation, Adrian Peterson. I highly doubt McFadden will near the stats AP enjoyed in his first full season, but you will see Run DMC selected way earlier than he probably should be (and thus the first rookie RB taken in most drafts).
Plus, the Raiders seem set on handing over most of the RB duties to Justin Fargas, who impressed the coaches last year when he emerged as the every day RB over Lamont Jordan and Dominic Rhodes. So, McFadden will have to show why he deserves to steal carries from the already established Fargas.
While I still know McFadden is more than capable of having an electrifying impact his first year, I see others having more initial success than him.
I view Jonathan Stewart as a late round steal. He was in fact a late round steal in the actual NFL draft, and can also slip to your fantasy team in the ladder rounds of your own draft. He is a very physical runner who dominated defenses, especially his last season in college playing for the Ducks of Oregon. He had a toe injury that led to his falling draft status but the Panthers are optimistic all things will be a go for their rookie RB once the season rolls around.
With the departure of DeShaun Foster, the only competition for Stewart will be DeAngelo Williams. Williams has struggled in his own right in his attempt to gain starter's status. He has been dubbed a change of pace back, and hasn't really progressed as much as Carolina had hoped he would. If Stewart can beat out Williams for the bulk of the carries, he will be a legit number two RB in all formats, especially since he will get most of the calls around the goal line.
Other Rookie runners that you may want to take a flier on include Matt Forte of the Bears and Kevin Smith of the Lions.
The Bears are fresh off their divorce with troubled RB Cedric Benson and always have been a team that stresses the run. They recently signed Kevin Jones, but his health status is still up in the air, and the Chicago coaching staff has already been impressed with Forte's overall game.
Kevin Smith also finds himself in a favorable situation. Smith was an absolute workhorse in college for UCF and he could be the back of the future for the Lions. His only competition right now is Tatum Bell.
If Tatum Bell is your only main threat at playing time then Kevin Smith is sitting pretty. Bell has failed to finish a full season as a starter for the Broncos and Lions in consecutive seasons, so don't count on him holding off Smith for long, if at all.
Rashard Mendenhall is also a nice handcuff for Willie Parker owners, as he will likely get the bulk of goal line carries. If Willie Parker gets injured like last year, Mendenhall will turn into a stud.
comments (7) write a comment »
write a new comment
2 months ago
Just a note: Dominic Rhodes was released by the Raiders a couple months back and has resigned with the Colts.
That does affect the playing time that Mike Hart might have been getting as backup to Addai. Also, I think you should have Steve Slaton on this list. He is in Houston, and if you are a RB on their roster, you have a good chance of getting some carries, and I believe Slaton may end getting a bulk of those.
from 2 months ago
that is a very good point about slaton although he has more veterans ahead of him on the depth chart with ahman green and chris brown but both are nothing special at this point in their careers and are injuries waiting to happen...
2 months ago
"While WRs seem to have the easiest transition and most productive rookie seasons, look for the best fantasy rookie to be among the RBs."
WR is one of the more complicated positions to play in the NFL and very few rookies ever make an impact. there is usually a solid 2 year learning curve, conversely RB is by far the easiest for college players to adjust to. So it is quite obvious year in RBs will make the most impact
2 months ago
How can you say Jonathan Stewart was a real NFL late round steal? He was drafted 13th overall and that was while in a cast recovering from toe surgery
from 2 months ago
ok maybe not too late but he was considered a very high pick after mcfadden. his stock dropped due to his injury and the panthers got lucky to get him there
2 months ago
A lot of people think Jonathan Stewart will be injury prone, I don't, though. The only time in his tenure at Oregon where he had serious injuries was early on when he didn't know how to run in a college style game. He was used to being able to plow over the defenders; that didn't really translate over to the NCAA. After his sophomore season he learned how to run not only with power, but also great elusiveness. He will emerge as one of the best running backs in this draft, that much I am sure of.
2 months ago
I am looking for Jonathan Stewart to be the most impressive rookie RB this year. Carolina is just dying to put the full load on him, and I think he can handle it. Barring some amazing stuff from Darren McFadden or an incredible workload falling upon Matt Forte, I think Stewart will produce much like Marshawn Lynch did in 2007 and look the best. I know Lynch was behind Adrian Peterson last year, but I think a Lynch-like campaign might earn the top spot in this rookie class.
write a new comment