This recent series with the Yankees was disastrous in many ways. The bats, at least Minnesota's bats, never lit up the way they have in the past. The pitching wasn't the best it has ever been, either.
The normally fundamentally-sound defense that the Twins are known for has also been lacking.
While defensive blunders have been a regular occurrence for a few weeks now, this series in Yankee Stadium really pointed them out to the world.
In fact, there were so many mistakes on the defensive side of the ball this series; you almost can't fault the pitching at all. Wednesday afternoon's game is a perfect example of this. Key mishaps were made by Casilla, Punto, Mauer, Harris, and others.
That provoked the thought: "Just how good are these Twins pitchers, really?"
There is a popular statistic out there called 'Fielding Independent Pitching." That's perfect! The Baseball Prospectus definition of FIP goes like this:
Tom Tango's Fielding Independent Pitching. Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. ...FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded.
Let's go through the current five starters and see what kind of defense they have benefited from.
Livan Hernandez
ERA - 5.29
FIP - 4.51
Hernandez isn't having the best season of his career by a long shot. In fact, he is having one of the worst, historically. He is giving up an average of 12.5 hits in every nine innings he pitches, to go along with 5.9 runs. The only way in the world to describe how he has 10 wins is to look at the offense.
Or, the defense?
Could it be that outstanding defense that has kept more runs from crossing the plate than what Hernandez would normally allow? From what this statistic says, no. If you narrow Hernandez's ERA down to only what he is responsible for, and take out the defense, he is a much better pitcher.
It could be flawed in Hernandez's case, though, simply because he gives up so many hits. You cannot expect a defense to be totally perfect all the time. If Hernandez keeps giving up over 12 hits every nine innings, the defense will be bound to make a mistake or two. I still think it shows that Hernandez has been the beneficiary of some poor Twins defense, though.
Scott Baker
ERA - 3.26
FIP - 3.92
Things are a little different when you look at Baker. This ace is giving up only an average of 8.3 hits per nine innings. The defense doesn't have to worry when Baker is on the mound as much as they do when Hernandez is.
From this statistic you can tell that without the defense, Baker would allow more runs. It is obvious that he has some solid defense behind him for the majority of the time he has spent pitching.
Baker is the only true ace of the ballclub. He has shown that he can be a phenomenal pitcher at times, but had one or two bad outings that has bloated his earned run average.
Nick Blackburn
ERA - 3.83
FIP - 3.95
Blackburn has pitched a ton of innings already this season, and is giving up just under 10.5 hits per nine innings. That average is the second-highest in the rotation, but he still manages to get out of jams. When you look at his game log, you see that he consistently gives up a lot of hits, but manages to escape the game with a respectable line.
A perfect example of that was on Apr. 19 against the Indians. Blackburn gave up eight hits through seven-and-two-thirds innings, but didn't surrender a run. There was still a lot of pressure on the defense during that game, though, because they were constantly faced with balls in play and runners on base.
These two numbers, Blackburn's ERA and FIP, are the closest of anyone in this rotation. It could possibly be because he controls a lot of what happens when he pitches. He rarely walks batters, and rarely gives up a home run. He also has a decent K/9IP ratio. However, I believe the case is that Blackburn receives his fair share of both good and bad defense.
Glen Perkins
ERA - 3.84
FIP - 4.53
Perkins gives up just under 10.5 hits per nine innings of pitching. Just like Blackburn, Perkins also limits the number of runners who cross the plate. Again, when you look at his game log, you find that he gives up loads of hits but limits the number of runs he surrenders.
Looking back at Blackburn, Perkins could put more strain on the defense simply because he constantly has either a runner on base or a ball in play.
From the two numbers above, you can gather that Perkins is a worse pitcher without his defense. The Twins' defense steps up and holds its own when Perkins is on the mound, despite the constant strain he puts on them.
Blackburn and Slowey are remarkably similar pitchers, it is just that Perkins is worse when the defense is not factored into the equation.
Kevin Slowey
ERA - 4.41
FIP - 4.08
Slowey and Baker are somewhat alike as pitchers. Slowey has a higher ERA, but he allows 8.7 hits per nine innings. That is obviously under one hit an inning. Slowey has also had surprising control this year. He is almost a clone of himself from 2007. Last year, Slowey averaged just under 1.5 walks per nine innings of pitching, while this year he is currently at just above 1.5.
Slowey's FIP and ERA are very close, but aren't the closest in this rotation. Like Hernandez, these numbers imply that Slowey has been receiving less-than-stellar defense that has raised his ERA to a little higher than it should be.
Three out of five of these pitchers are better when the defense is calculated. The other two, Hernandez and Slowey, find their ERAs lower when the defense is not included in the math.
I think this simply means that Minnesota's defense has been sporadically good and bad. They are good one night for a certain pitcher, but poor the next for another pitcher.
Could this be influenced by whom the pitcher is? Are the Twins playing favorites? I couldn't tell you for sure, but I seriously doubt it. It is curious, though, why only three of the five starters are the beneficiaries of good defense the majority of the time.
What are your thoughts on this? Please feel free to discuss this, or anything else that would fill your mind on this pleasant off-day.
Tomorrow I will compare the defense of the 2007 Minnesota Twins and the current team. Be sure to come back and see what I find out!
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2 months ago
Interesting Math there Andrew! Is it that they are having a bad day or is that they are really playing favorites. Hard to say, though your analysis clears up some doubts.
2 months ago
Nice article. Clearly well researched.
Although the cut throat nature of statistics is the be-and-and-end-all for some, I don't necessarily believe that stats can fully represent a player. It's more just a form guide I reckon. Not a measure of talent.
Sports fans all over the world judge using their hearts, but we always feel like we must justify our feelings with stats. This is the opposite of what we're supposed to do - look at stats and then judge a player on whether he's good and bad - isn't it?
Sorry for the diversion from the original topic! Great article!
from 2 months ago
Absolutely agree. I love stats, but mostly just to back up what I already think about a player. It's like recruiting someone. Do you look to who has the most killer stats, or to who displays the best leadership and looks like has the best chance to succeed at the next level.
For example, high school pitchers. Let's say someone can whip the ball at 95 mhp. He has a spectacular line, say, something like 1.18 ERA, 0.692 WHIP. You can also go way deeper into more sabermetric stats. From what you find, he is clearly good and will be a superstar, right?
Not necessarily. That high schooler isn't facing the kind of batters he will face in the pros, most of his opponents can't bring their bat around fast enough to have a prayer to get a hit off him. Once he faces major league hitting, he will be just another below average pitcher.
There is also the mechanics to consider. If a pitcher is throwing absolutely crazy-like, he probably has a huge change of injuring himself before he is any good.
Thanks for the discussion/comment and the kind words, Steven!
from 2 months ago
Excellent analogy.
2 months ago
Great article as usual Andrew, clearly well thought out! My guess is that the apparent drop in defensive prowess is due to the youth of our outfield. Every OF position is different from last year and each player is still learning. Delmon Young has made a few great plays, but a lot of boneheaded ones too. The same is true for Gomez and to a lesser extent Span.
Casilla and Buscher are young too, so they are prone to off nights more frequently than, say, Mauer or Morneau.
I'd be really interested to see how the pitchers working speed plays into FIP, since a quicker working pitcher will keep his D on its toes better than, say, Livan Hernandez. Too bad there isn't really a stat for that!
from 2 months ago
Any stat that involves a measurement of quick pitching is amazing in my book. Thanks for the comment and kind words, Dan!
2 months ago
I doubt that the Twins would EVER play favorites. Especially when it comes down to winning and losing and 1st and 2nd place.
Great statistics.. and good research.
But I highly recommend not even believing that they would ever play favorites. I see where you would come to think that, but I highly doubt that they would do something like that. Everyone that is asked about the "clubhouse chemistry" says that everyone likes eachother, and they all get along REALLY REALLY well.
There was something said about Slowey having an "infectious personality" and a "kind heart to everyone" so I don't think that too many- to none of the defensive players would do that to him or Livo.
but good statistics, like I said. :)
from 2 months ago
Thanks for the nice comment! I completely agree. The thought of favoritism never even crossed my mind until these statistics remotely suggested it.
I don't think there is even a remote possibility.
Thanks!
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