This recent series with the Yankees was disastrous in many ways. The bats, at least Minnesota's bats, never lit up the way they have in the past. The pitching wasn't the best it has ever been, either.
The normally fundamentally-sound defense that the Twins are known for has also been lacking.
While defensive blunders have been a regular occurrence for a few weeks now, this series in Yankee Stadium really pointed them out to the world.
In fact, there were so many mistakes on the defensive side of the ball this series; you almost can't fault the pitching at all. Wednesday afternoon's game is a perfect example of this. Key mishaps were made by Casilla, Punto, Mauer, Harris, and others.
That provoked the thought: "Just how good are these Twins pitchers, really?"
There is a popular statistic out there called 'Fielding Independent Pitching." That's perfect! The Baseball Prospectus definition of FIP goes like this:
Tom Tango's Fielding Independent Pitching. Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. ...FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded.
Let's go through the current five starters and see what kind of defense they have benefited from.
Livan Hernandez
ERA - 5.29
FIP - 4.51
Hernandez isn't having the best season of his career by a long shot. In fact, he is having one of the worst, historically. He is giving up an average of 12.5 hits in every nine innings he pitches, to go along with 5.9 runs. The only way in the world to describe how he has 10 wins is to look at the offense.
Or, the defense?
Could it be that outstanding defense that has kept more runs from crossing the plate than what Hernandez would normally allow? From what this statistic says, no. If you narrow Hernandez's ERA down to only what he is responsible for, and take out the defense, he is a much better pitcher.
It could be flawed in Hernandez's case, though, simply because he gives up so many hits. You cannot expect a defense to be totally perfect all the time. If Hernandez keeps giving up over 12 hits every nine innings, the defense will be bound to make a mistake or two. I still think it shows that Hernandez has been the beneficiary of some poor Twins defense, though.
Scott Baker
ERA - 3.26
FIP - 3.92
Things are a little different when you look at Baker. This ace is giving up only an average of 8.3 hits per nine innings. The defense doesn't have to worry when Baker is on the mound as much as they do when Hernandez is.
From this statistic you can tell that without the defense, Baker would allow more runs. It is obvious that he has some solid defense behind him for the majority of the time he has spent pitching.
Baker is the only true ace of the ballclub. He has shown that he can be a phenomenal pitcher at times, but had one or two bad outings that has bloated his earned run average.
8 comments Last one added 11 months ago — Leave a Comment
Saraswathi Siriginia 11 months ago
Interesting Math there Andrew! Is it that they are having a bad day or is that they are really playing favorites. Hard to say, though your analysis clears up some doubts.
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Steven Ho 11 months ago
Nice article. Clearly well researched.
Although the cut throat nature of statistics is the be-and-and-end-all for some, I don't necessarily believe that stats can fully represent a player. It's more just a form guide I reckon. Not a measure of talent.
Sports fans all over the world judge using their hearts, but we always feel like we must justify our feelings with stats. This is the opposite of what we're supposed to do - look at stats and then judge a player on whether he's good and bad - isn't it?
Sorry for the diversion from the original topic! Great article!
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Andrew Kneeland 11 months ago
Absolutely agree. I love stats, but mostly just to back up what I already think about a player. It's like recruiting someone. Do you look to who has the most killer stats, or to who displays the best leadership and looks like has the best chance to succeed at the next level.
For example, high school pitchers. Let's say someone can whip the ball at 95 mhp. He has a spectacular line, say, something like 1.18 ERA, 0.692 WHIP. You can also go way deeper into more sabermetric stats. From what you find, he is clearly good and will be a superstar, right?
Not necessarily. That high schooler isn't facing the kind of batters he will face in the pros, most of his opponents can't bring their bat around fast enough to have a prayer to get a hit off him. Once he faces major league hitting, he will be just another below average pitcher.
There is also the mechanics to consider. If a pitcher is throwing absolutely crazy-like, he probably has a huge change of injuring himself before he is any good.
Thanks for the discussion/comment and the kind words, Steven!
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Steven Ho 11 months ago
Excellent analogy.
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Dan Wade 11 months ago
Great article as usual Andrew, clearly well thought out! My guess is that the apparent drop in defensive prowess is due to the youth of our outfield. Every OF position is different from last year and each player is still learning. Delmon Young has made a few great plays, but a lot of boneheaded ones too. The same is true for Gomez and to a lesser extent Span.
Casilla and Buscher are young too, so they are prone to off nights more frequently than, say, Mauer or Morneau.
I'd be really interested to see how the pitchers working speed plays into FIP, since a quicker working pitcher will keep his D on its toes better than, say, Livan Hernandez. Too bad there isn't really a stat for that!
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Andrew Kneeland 11 months ago
Any stat that involves a measurement of quick pitching is amazing in my book. Thanks for the comment and kind words, Dan!
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Brandi Fick 11 months ago
I doubt that the Twins would EVER play favorites. Especially when it comes down to winning and losing and 1st and 2nd place.
Great statistics.. and good research.
But I highly recommend not even believing that they would ever play favorites. I see where you would come to think that, but I highly doubt that they would do something like that. Everyone that is asked about the "clubhouse chemistry" says that everyone likes eachother, and they all get along REALLY REALLY well.
There was something said about Slowey having an "infectious personality" and a "kind heart to everyone" so I don't think that too many- to none of the defensive players would do that to him or Livo.
but good statistics, like I said. :)
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Andrew Kneeland 11 months ago
Thanks for the nice comment! I completely agree. The thought of favoritism never even crossed my mind until these statistics remotely suggested it.
I don't think there is even a remote possibility.
Thanks!
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