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South Africa and England went into this Test Series equally matched. England had a slight edge in the batting department, while the South African bowling line up has shown explosive form in the last eight to ten months...

Of Risks and Odds in Test Cricket

by Kartikeya Date (Scribe)

0

255 reads

Sports

July 22, 2008


South Africa and England went into this Test Series equally matched. England had a slight edge in the batting department, while the South African bowling line up has shown explosive form in the last eight to ten months.

With the return of Andrew Flintoff, the English bowling attack was definitely bolstered in the Leeds Test, but this was offset somewhat by absence of the in form Ryan Sidebottom. Overall, it would be fair to say that on paper, this was a series between two well-matched sides.

The visitors' lead is somewhat surprising given England's recent Test Match results in New Zealand and then in the home series against New Zealand. Their batting line up is more settled than at any time in recent memory (even during the 2005 Ashes, Ian Bell's slot was still uncertain).

Yet, the South Africans have outbatted and outbowled them at Leeds. The visitors began the series tentatively. Graeme Smith made an ill-fated decision to field first at Lord's and spent the next two days in the field as England romped to a first innings of nearly 600.

The South African pacemen looked out of sorts on the first morning when the wicket and the conditions were at their most helpful. They survived at Lord's thanks to their batsmen and a wicket which England did not have the means to exploit. A good second spinner to assist Panesar would have come in handy for England at Lord's.

The reason why South Africa find themselves ahead today is because they have played better Test Cricket. What I mean by this is that they have shown better awareness of the demands of Test Match play. Their batsmen have been willing to graft and work hard for their runs, allowing their bowling the time it needed get it right.

It started with McKenzie and Smith who played superbly according to the situation of the game at Lord's. Smith scored his runs faster than McKenzie, but the caution was evident in his play. McKenzie seems to be temperamentally well suited to the long haul and took to the Lord's situation like a duck to water.

England have some right to feel that the rub of the green did not go their way in South Africa's first innings in the Leeds test, but how many times have we seen the side which gets it right most of the time get all the breaks? How many times have we seen Glenn McGrath for example have edges carry to lone slips, while lesser bowlers have their stray edges streak between slip and gully?

At the end of the day, this phenomenon is easily explained by way of odds. McGrath is likely to get his man more often than a less accurate bowler, because he is likely to create an edge inducing more often than a less accurate bowler.

The art in Test Cricket at the end of the day, is about judging risks. Every player who plays at the Test level is aware of basic batting technique, and all bowlers get sorted out with time. Mystery and brilliance rarely win Test Matches, and the advantage of these is always temporary.

By creating a finely balanced contest between bat and ball, where each has a stake, and where a certain basic quality is required of each, an episodic battle ensues marked by shifting risks and odds. If you look at the batting averages of the English and South African batsmen in this series, you will find that England's batsmen have scored quicker than South Africa's batsmen.

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