At UFC 87 Jon Fitch is going to challenge St. Pierre for the UFC Welterweight Championship. Fitch has an awesome record of 21 wins and only two losses. He's also coming off of an eight-fight winning streak in the UFC, winning every single fight thus far.
His most notable win was over Diego Sanchez in which he showed great heart, did not tap when Sanchez looked to have him in a deep guillotine choke, and managed to out-wrestle Sanchez and take the win on a split decision. He is a great fighter and his main strength is his wrestling, but I also think that it's going to be a problem for him in this fight.
St. Pierre's last three fights were against Matt Serra, Matt Hughes, and Josh Koscheck, two of whom are celebrated wrestlers. Not only did St. Pierre defeat all three opponents, he dominated them.
He beat Josh Koscheck by unanimous decision, and excluding some brief moments when Koscheck was on top (he never landed anything significant) the only thing he showed was good submission defense. St. Pierre completely controlled him on the ground, which is huge considering Koscheck's wrestling background.
His next fight was his rubber match with Hughes, and once again he completely dominated all aspects of the fight. He controlled Hughes on the ground in round one. Then in round two after some more of the same he transitioned from a kimura attempt to an arm bar, forcing Hughes to verbally tap.
When interviewed after the fight Hughes humbly remarked that Georges is a better fighter.
And then there was the Matt Serra rematch, where we all watched St. Pierre punish Serra on the ground for two grueling rounds.
The referee finally called a stop to the fight at four minutes and 45 seconds of round two, as St. Pierre viciously kneed Serra over and over again to the body. I expected St. Pierre to win, but like the two main events last Saturday it was not much of a fight at all.
So what I'm basically saying here is that Jon Fitch is a great fighter, but if St. Pierre dominated the past two wrestlers he faced at their own game, what chance does Fitch really have? I don't see him winning this fight on the feet. St. Pierre has only been submitted once (by Hughes). That's probably Fitch's best shot, but I still think it's unlikely.
And lastly, I doubt Fitch can win a decision. He defeated Sanchez by decision, but he mainly just held him on the ground. I doubt Fitch can simply wrestle St. Pierre to the ground and hold him there for five rounds in a row, or three for that matter.
We all remember Serra knocking out St. Pierre, so anything is possible. However, if St. Pierre shows up in the shape he's been in during his last three outings, I really don't see Fitch having much of a chance. Agree or disagree? Let me know!