Phillies vs. Mets: Who's Better?

There's been a lot of debate (and hate) going on since the middle of last year between the Phillies' fans and Mets fans.  Obviously both sides think they are "the team to beat" and no one is backing down. 

From Jimmy Rollins to Carlos Beltran, everyone has weighed in on it and now it's "our turn."  What you're about to read may sound one-sided (yes, I'm a Phillies fan), but my intent here is to construct a very fair and rational discussion.

As we all know, the Mets blew a seven-game lead in 16 days in September last year and the Phillies won the division.  In the offseason the Mets went out and traded for seemingly the best pitcher in baseball, Johan Santana, and were immediately anointed front runners in not only the NL East, but the entire National League. 

On top of that, they also acquired OF Ryan Church and C Brian Schneider from the Nationals, parting ways with the enigmatic Lastings Milledge.

Despite a quick start from Church, things didn't exactly go as planned for NY, as they started off a bit slowly. 

They saw their first basemen Carlos Delgado age five years right before their eyes, Carlos Beltran suffered through another slow April, and Jose Reyes looked like he picked up right where he left off last season, which was a bad sign. 

Sitting below .500 for most the season, rumors swirled on a daily basis about manager Willie Randolph's job. Despite the talent in the clubhouse, many sources cited the Mets' biggest issue was team chemistry. 

Some even went as far as saying that the problems were a result of a clash of diverse cultures in the clubhouse (Puerto Rico—Feliciano, Castro, Delgado, Beltran, Pagan; Dominican Republic—Martinez, Castillo, Reyes, Sanchez, Burgos, Tatis; Venezuela—Santana, Chavez; Mexico—Perez; and Cuba—El Duque).

Eventually, with a 34-35 record, trailing the division-leading Phillies by 6.5 games, Randolph was fired and replaced by Jerry Manuel.  Since the firing, the Mets have compiled a 19-11 record, including a 10-game win streak, and have moved into a tie for first place with the Phillies. 

They also have seen Pedro Martinez come off the DL, a nice turn around from Delgado and Beltran, surprising results from baseball scrapheaper Fernando Tatis, and pitcher Mike Pelfrey coming into his own.

As for the Phillies, their story has been just as uneven.  They too came out of the gates a bit slow, and despite Ryan Howard sleeping through April and their opening day starter Brett Myers being sent to the minors, they have managed to spend the last 51 days in first place. 

They have compiled the best bullpen ERA in the Majors (a huge weakness last year) and have hit a ton of homers, with three players (Howard, Utley, Burrell) on pace to eclipse 40. 

But less than stellar play by reigning NL MVP Jimmy Rollins and the inability to play "small-ball" in crucial situations have hurt the Phillies in many games this season. 

As a result, they head into the start of a three-game series tonight at Shea looking to find themselves and put some space between them and the Mets.

Now that we've gotten that out of the way, let's breakdown these two teams and see who really is the better team:

HITTING

1B: Phillies....Much more production from Howard than Delgado. Despite Delgado hitting better recently, Howard has been putting up massive numbers despite the low batting average.

Howard  .236 AVG  29 HR  87 RBI  .325 OBP  .512 SLG%

Delgado .261 AVG  18 HR  57 RBI  .343 OBP  .472 SLG%                     

2B: Phillies....Clearly Utley has outperformed Castillo and Easley (they have 50 more combined ABs) and is a much better player in any given season.  Really nothing to debate here.

Utley    .296 AVG  25 HR  70 RBI  .379 OBP  .584 SLG%  10 SB   69 Runs

Castillo .261 AVG    3 HR  26 RBI  .365 OBP  .331 SLG%  13 SB   42 Runs

Easley  .277 AVG    3 HR  24 RBI  .321 OBP  .364 SLG%    0 SB   21 Runs

SS: Mets....Jose Reyes is a very good player, Jimmy Rollins is also very good and was a great player last year.  But this season Reyes definitely gets the nod here. (Note: Rollins was on DL earlier in the season and has over 100 fewer ABs)

Rollins  .271 AVG   6 HR   32 RBI  .336 OBP  .431 SLG%  25 SB  41 Runs

Reyes  .300 AVG   10 HR  43 RBI  .364 OBP  .482 SLG%  33 SB  71 Runs

3B: Mets....David Wright is the future of this team and he is one of top third basemen in the league.  Pedro Feliz, acquired in the offseason, has been OK, but nowhere near Wright's production.

Feliz     .262 AVG  12 HR  46 RBI  .311 OBP  .434 SLG%  0 SB  36 Runs

Wright .286 AVG  19 HR  76 RBI  .386 OBP  .513 SLG%  12 SB  65 Runs

LF: Phillies....Pat Burrell is quietly having a career year and has been the Phillies' most consistent hitter throughout this season.  The Mets, with Alou on the DL most of the year (and is now out for the year), have used Fernando Tatis and Angel Pagan (out for the year) here as well, among others. 

They have gotten decent output, but nothing close to Burrell's numbers. (Alou/Pagan/Tatis have about 50 ABs less than Burrell)

Burrell   .280 AVG  25 HR  59 RBI  .406 OBP  .594 SLG%

Tatis     .295 AVG   5 HR  22 RBI  .338 OBP  .455 SLG%

Pagan   .275 AVG   0 HR  13 RBI  .346 OBP  .374 SLG%

Alou     .347 AVG   0 HR    9 RBI   .389 OBP  .388  SLG%

CF: Mets....Carlos Beltran is the better player here.  His season has been sub-par in ratio to Mets fans' expectations, but he still gets the nod over Victorino.  I will note that Jayson Werth has seen many ABs in CF this year, but we'll look at him purely in RF.  (Beltran has 50 more ABs than Victorino)

Victorino .276 AVG   5 HR  29 RBI  .345 OBP  .402 SLG%  22 SB  59 Runs

Beltran   .271 AVG  15 HR  68 RBI  .363 OBP  .477 SLG%  16 SB  69 Runs

RF: Phillies...The Phillies have basically used a platoon here with Jayson Werth and Geoff Jenkins, and the results have been mixed.  The Mets had Ryan Church playing well, but migraines have sidelined him and have forced them to use the much less productive Endy Chavez (and Marlon Anderson) in his place. 

As a result, the slight nod here goes to the Phillies. (Phillies combine here with 40 more ABs than Mets)

Werth  .268 AVG  12 HR  36 RBI  .352 OBP  .468 SLG%  11 SB  32 Runs

Jenkins .236 AVG  8 HR   26 RBI  .291 OBP  .389 SLG%    1 SB  24 Runs

Church .307 AVG  10 HR  36 RBI  .370 OBP  .512 SLG%   1 SB  40 Runs

Chavez .255 AVG  1 HR  10 RBI   .300 OBP   .302 SLG%   4 SB  22 Rins

C : TIE....Chris Coste has basically seen more ABs than Carlos Ruiz in the last two months and has been slightly above average.  Ruiz has been awful.  For the Mets, Brian Schneider has been unproductive and back-up Ramon Castro is a better hitter, but doesn't see the playing time.

Coste        .276 AVG   7 HR  22 RBI  .330 OBP  .476 SLG% 

Ruiz          .204 AVG  2 HR   20 RBI  .304 OBP  .269 SLG%

Schneider  .243 AVG   2 HR  20 RBI  .335 OBP  .294 SLG%

Castro       .289 AVG   4 HR  16 RBI  .359 OBP  .494 SLG%

PITCHING

Here's where the debate gets interesting because, up until now, it's pretty cut and dry. 

SP No. 1 (Hamels vs Santana) - TIE...The Mets will cry about this one cause they spent all that money on Santana and he's giving them Hamels' numbers.  Not that those aren't good, they aren't the numbers the Mets envisioned when they traded away their farm system for him and then signed him to all that money. 

The fact is they both are good No. 1 starters and based on this year (and in my opinion going forward), they are extremely close in talent.

Hamels    9-6   3.11 ERA  150 IP  133 SO  38 BB  WHIP 1.01

Santana   8-7   3.10 ERA   131 IP   116 SO  36 BB  WHIP 1.22

SP No. 2 (Myers vs Maine) - Mets.....While Maine has underachieved this year and has severely struggled with his command, Myers has been downright bad.  Now that he's back from the minors with potentially improved mechanics this comparison has the potential to change.

But for now, the edge has to go to Maine and the Mets.

Myers   3-9   5.84 ERA   102 IP  88 SO  44 BB  1.56 WHIP

Maine   8-7   4.22 ERA   113 IP  98 SO  54 BB  1.35 WHIP

SP No. 3 (Blanton vs Perez) - TIE....Joe Blanton was just acquired from the A's and while his numbers to date have been less than appealing, he will now move to the NL where the guideline is to drop the ERA by 1/2 a run. 

His record is more of an indication of lack of run support from the weak A's offense as well.  So looking at it that way, I have to call this one a tie as Perez has been very inconsistent and has put a ton of runners on base with walks.

Blanton (w/Oakland)  5-12   4.96 ERA  127 IP   62 SO   35 BB   1.42 WHIP

Perez                        6-6    4.36 ERA   109 IP   95 SO  63 BB   1.43 WHIP

SP No. 4  (Moyer vs Pelfrey) - TIE....you can call Jamie Moyer a lot of things, but an average starter is not one of them.  He has exceeded everyone's expectations this year, throwing gem after gem. 

Meanwhile, Mike Pelfrey, after struggling at the start of the season, has really turned it on and has put up very similar numbers.  The question will be whether Pelfrey can keep this up and be able to handle the pressure of a pennant race.

Moyer      9-6   3.90 ERA   120 IP   73 SO  34 BB  1.36 WHIP

Pelfrey     8-6  3.81 ERA    116 IP   68 SO   44 BB  1.44 WHIP

SP No. 5  (Kendrick vs Martinez or minor league call-up) - Phillies...Kyle Kendrick in his first full season has been mediocre.  He's thrown some decent games, but has also gotten lit up.  However, his numbers are still better than anyone the Mets can put out there in this spot.  

Pedro Martinez came off the DL, pitched OK in a few starts and poor in the rest (struggling after four innings), and is now hurt again.  He can't be relied on here and there is no way we can assume he's Pedro from the Red Sox.

Kendrick  8-4  4.87 ERA   109 IP  49 SO   33 BB   1.50 WHIP

Martinez  3-2   6.25 ERA   45 IP   34 SO   18 BB   1.63 WHIP

BULLPEN - Phillies...With the offseason acquisition of Brad Lidge the Phillies have given the back-end of their bullpen the stud they've needed since Billy Wagner left for NY.  Ironically, Wagner is now struggling a bit and has complained of soreness (in his arm area I presume, but you never know with him). 

The Phillies lead the Majors in bullpen ERA at 2.72 and Lidge has not blown a save this year.  The Mets' bullpen has an ERA over a run higher at 3.82 and Wagner has blown six saves already (the most since '02). 

SUMMARY...Wow, it's really close, and as a result this race will probably go down to the wire. 

I know this will sound biased but if you have read everything I wrote, looked at the numbers, and understand baseball, you will see that the Phillies are the better team and have more of an upside than the Mets from here on out. 

With the return of Myers, the addition of Blanton, and the potential for MVP Jimmy Rollins to wake up, the fightin' Phils should come out on top.

I'd love to hear your comments......