Fantasy Football: Wide-Receiver Rankings

The value of wide receivers really depends on the league you’re in and the scoring system adopted. The elite wide outs will generate as many points, in any format, as the top running backs and can be just as valuable in a flex position. The difference is that they may only get to touch the ball 10 times a game, whereas a top running back can see a handoff 20 to 25 times.

Leagues that grant points for receptions should always be viewed skeptically, but it certainly levels the playing field. If this is your league, make sure you value your wide receivers as highly, if not more highly in some cases, as the elite backs.

Many people seem to buy into the “Third-Year Theory” among wide receivers that says players seem to bust out at that point. Don’t trust that one. Just as many fall away as those that succeed. We only hear about the success stories. Trust your instincts on these players.

The Roundtable has broken it down below.

1. Randy Moss: As long as Tom Brady is throwing him the football, Moss has a chance to make plays. We didn’t see him take plays off last year, as was the case in the past. He can beat double teams and is too tall to be guarded by most corners. He’ll be tops again. Prediction: 1,300 yds/14 TD/90 receptions
2. Terrell Owens: Makes as many plays as Moss, but is inconsistent in his play. He’ll end up with near the same numbers in yards, but fewer touchdowns than Moss. Prediction: 1,300/10/110
3. Braylon Edwards: You'll get some debate in this No. 3 spot, but Edwards proved he was ready for the big time last year. The issue is his quarterback. He’ll need Derek Anderson to repeat his performance. Increased attention won’t be the issue because Edwards was already seeing that. Prediction: 1,200/9/95
4. Larry Fitzgerald: I like his emergence last season, and I like the fact that Arizona looks like they will stick with Leinart (until he’s caught in the pool with more young girls). Fitzgerald has receivers opposite him what will take the heat off. I don’t think the healthy receiving corps will limit his production at all. Prediction: 1,150/8/85.
5. Reggie Wayne: Wayne is still a top-tier receiver, but the potential return and/or loss of Marvin Harrison looms over his head. Add to that, he’s only as good as the quarterback under center. Manning’s knee is a key variable in this situation. Jim Sorgi is not going to present the same demeanor in the pocket. I dropped him from the three spot because of those concerns. Prediction: 1,200/8/75
6. Andre Johnson: His return to health will be the key for the Texans' offense. I think he’ll rebound, but just not as much as he potentially could. We don’t trust the way the offense is run in Houston. Johnson tends to be a receiver we just avoid for that reason. Prediction: 1,100/9/80
7. T.J. Houshmandzadeh: It doesn’t seem to matter who lines up on the other side, T.J. is going to put up numbers. Even without Chris Henry, the Bengals added a talented rookie in Andre Caldwell, who should be a nice addition as a slot receiver that can open things up for both T.J. and Ocho-Cinco. Prediction: 1,200/7/90
8. Marques Colston: His health was a concern early in the year because of the ankle. He lost half of one of the best running-back duos in the NFL, he wasn’t going to surprise anyone, and he STILL put up huge numbers. It can only get better. Plus, he’s in that mythical third-year as a wide receiver. Prediction: 1,200/9/75.
9. Steve Smith: A healthy Jake Delhomme will be the difference here. We’ve seen Smith’s production take a hit though. Keep in mind his health concerns. He’s missed at least one game the last two seasons, and hamstring issues plagued him in 2006. He’s elite, but not as elite as he once was. Prediction: 1,100/7/85
10. Plaxico Burress: He has a whole offseason to get healthy, a quarterback coming into his own, and, hopefully, a new contract. Burress doesn’t take plays off. Yes, he can be fragile, but he’s one of the best in the game at going up and getting passes. Prediction: 1,250/8/70

That covers the top of the top. You can see value here through the top-15 or 20. As far as drafting early, it all depends on how your draft is working and if there happens to be a run on a position. With wide receivers, it’s entirely possible to snag better ones early and still be able to fill in with solid time-share backs that can be played based on matchups.

1. Chad Johnson
2. Torry Holt
3. Anquan Boldin
4. Greg Jennings
5. Santonio Holmes

Immediately, you can see the types of names that exist just on the other side of the top 10. Boldin missed four games last season, but didn’t miss a beat on his return. He’ll only help Leinart and Fitzgerald.

Chad Johnson may not be the top guy on his own team, but he produces. Holt will be here until he decides to hang it up. You can’t beat his consistency.

Jennings’ rank largely depends on quarterback. He’s still the primary target from anyone in Green Bay. Santonio Holmes emerged last season, so don’t think he’ll turn back now.

1. Roy Williams
2. Wes Welker
3. Brandon Marshall
4. Hines Ward
5. Roddy White

Many boards will have White higher. I don’t trust Matt Ryan to get him the football. Roy Williams has been ranked behind Wes Welker, and we don’t buy that for a second. Brandon Marshall needs to stay out of trouble.

Welker will be hard-pressed to duplicate last season’s results, but is the secondary target to Moss and a great underneath receiver. Hines Ward is Hines Ward. He’s like Torry Holt, he just produces.

1. Dwayne Bowe
2. Lee Evans
3. Calvin Johnson
4. Santana Moss
5. Laveranues Coles

Dwayne Bowe is going to be a stud. Mark it down. Lee Evans is the only/best target in Buffalo, and the addition of James Hardy will help him see more balls. Johnson proved last season that his college numbers were no fluke.

Moss and Coles start to get to the point where you’re pushing it on numbers. Neither is really justified in being more than a mid-round selection.

1. Marvin Harrison
2. Chris Chambers
3. Donald Driver
4. Kevin Curtis
5. D.J. Hackett

Hackett will see more balls thrown his way with Steve Smith on the other side. Marvin Harrison’s knees and legal problems are a concern, and you have to account for them. Chris Chambers shows glimpses every year of being a top receiver. He just has to put it together.

Kevin Curtis will have a couple huge games, some really bad ones, and the rest will be ok. Donald Driver, even as the older guy, still can catch passes. He’s not as consistent as Holt or Ward, though.

The ‘Table came up with a few other pieces of useful information on receivers that might help you.

• Notice how there are no rookies in the top-30 receivers on this list. Rookie receivers are a gamble. Always remember that and carry it with you in drafts. James Hardy has the potential to be the best of the bunch. Our Rookie Rundown gave those we feel have the most keeper value and value this season.
• We don’t believe in Reggie Brown. Period. He’s talked about every year as being the big-play threat that they hope to have in Philly, and every year something happens. Stop buying it until he proves he can do it. And that means more than one game.
• Donte Stallworth will do well in Cleveland. Understood, he’s been given a myriad of chances, but this seems to be a good fit in a young, but improving, offense.
• These receivers could emerge as big fantasy surprises: Anthony Gonzalez, Vincent Jackson, Bernard Berrian, Jerry Porter (especially with Matt Jones’...ahem…legal issues), James Hardy, and Robert Meachem.
• We don’t trust: Bobby Engram, Nate Burleson, Sidney Rice, Javon Walker, Derrick Mason, and anyone catching passes in Miami.

We’ll be back with more positional breakdowns.