It's Happening Again: Can The New York Yankees Make The Playoffs, Pt. 2

Part one showed that the Yankees are, historically, in the ideal position to make a run at the playoffs. However, certain factors unique to this season may impede the Bombers' pinstriped march to the postseason:

1. The AL East is kind of good.

And by good, we don't just mean the Red Sox. No, this year the Yanks will have to keep pace with both the Sox and the Tampa Bay Rays in order to secure a top two finish. The surprising Rays have maintained their stranglehold on the division despite losing seven in a row going into the break, and have the talent to stay there.

While in '07, the Yankees merely had to play to their potential to wrap up the Wild Card, they will have to overachieve in order to make up ground on two teams equally or more talented than them. Boston and Tampa have better pitching and a deep bench, crucial factors as the season lengthens and begins to take its toll. Additionally, the rest of the East (Baltimore, Toronto) is good enough to play a spoiler role as NY tries to put together extended winning streaks.

There is simply no pushover team that the Yankees can steamroll to get their win count up. New York will have to play quality baseball night-in and night-out in order to leapfrog one of their rivals.

2. No candidates for a second-half surprise.

In 2007, there was Shelley Duncan and Andy Phillips. '06 had everybody asking, Got Melky? Bubba Crosby was the savior in '05. The Yankees have a knack for finding one or two players that unexpectedly break out with a torrid hitting streak. These are role players that get hot for a few weeks or a month, giving the Yanks the momentum they need to put a good winning streak together. But this year the best they can hope for is that Richie Sexson magically remembers the bat is supposed to make contact with the ball.

The rest of the bench is disappointing, and New York's production has come almost exclusively from the starting nine. That's fine, but if someone gets hurt or goes through a bad stretch, there is no one left to step up. This year's spark plug will likely have to come in a deadline deal for a Jason Bay or Xavier Nady. If that happens, you're looking at one of the best lineups in baseball, but if not, there could be some dry times in the runs category.

3. Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano.

As much as Jeter gets flack here for his lack of defense and leadership, there is no arguing his value when it comes to getting on base and scoring runs. Though it might not be pretty or awe-inspiring, Jeter gets over 200 hits and scores 100 runs every year.

Ninety-eight games into this season, the shortstop has 103 hits and 55 runs. That's going to have to improve dramatically for New York to have a shot. Without Jeter hitting for a high average, the Yankees are forced to rely more on power, which can come and go without warning. Remember, one bad skid in the AL East and the season is lost. Captain Clutch's offensive regression could spell major trouble.

Robbie Cano is in the same boat. Though he isn't as crucial as Jeter, he is expected to hit .320+ with 15 homers, numbers he's not going to come close to in '08. Instead of a second leadoff hitter, Cano is now just another end-of-the-lineup hitter, a break for opposing pitchers.

4. The Schedule

This has little to do with historical trends, but is significant to the Yankees' need to reach 95 wins. Of the 64 games left, 25 (or 40%) are against the top three teams in the AL. New York plays the Red Sox nine times, the Rays six, and, most importantly, the LA Angels ten times.

The Yankees are historically bad vs the Angels, and this may be the toughest version yet. Winning even half of those games is going to be a tall order. They also end the season with a three game set at Fenway. This could very well determine which of the three gets an early start on their golf game.

The Yanks have enough experience to make it a pinstripe-laden September, but the past three years haven't provided this combination of obstacles. Making the playoffs is a tall order, but certainly something that would happen just to torture the rest of the country.