It's Happening Again: Can the New York Yankees Make the Playoffs? (Part 1)

With their recent sweep of the Oakland A's, we're at that point again in the season where we look up at the standings and are startled to see the New York Yankees just a few games out of playoff position.

This is also known as the worst day of the year.

At eight games over .500, the Yanks have positioned themselves for a second-half surge.

It has become a sort of routine: Sleepwalk through the first half, clinging on to mediocrity, and then come to work a few days before the All-Star break and start earning some of that $200 million payroll.

At 53-45, New York has been consistent in its early season underachieving over the past four years, posting similar records through 98 games since 2005. During each of those years the Yankees recovered to make the playoffs.

So, does New York really have a legitimate shot at making some noise come September? If history is any indication, all signs point to yes:

1. The Yankees are in pretty much the same position, record-wise, after 98 games:

2008: 53-45

2007: 52-46

2006: 58-40

2005: 53-45

After middling first halves, New York kicked it into high gear, finishing with an average of 95.3 wins. In order to reach 95 wins this year, the Yanks would have to go 42-22 over their 64 remaining games, a feat they've come close to or accomplished the past three years.

Though the AL East is one of the toughest, that many wins makes a team a serious contender in any division.

2. New York has four solid starters for the first time in four years:

With the addition of Joba Chamberlain, the Yanks staff has a consistent fourth starter to add to a solid three of Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina, and Chien-Ming Wang.

Pettitte has been the workhorse of the staff, while Mussina is surprising everyone with an excellent year. Wang has been the ace when healthy. Add to that spot starts by the improved Darrell Rasner and Sidney Ponson, and you have a competent rotation.

In the past, the Yankees haven't had that dependability, despite some big names. Seemingly everyone in the farm system tried out for the No. 4 starter spot last year, with no one making a real impact.

In 2005-2006, aging pitchers like Randy Johnson and Kevin Brown did more damage than they were worth. Add the disastrous Kei Igawa and it's a wonder the Yanks were able to even stay afloat.

3. Bounce-back years from high-profile veterans like Jason Giambi and Johnny Damon.

Last year, the Yankees won in spite of Giambi's steroid-hangover slump, and it seemed like Johnny Damon was being pushed out of a starting spot. One year later, Giambi is beloved in NY, with his mustache, high OBP and team-leading 20 home runs.

He is once again a power threat in the middle of the lineup. Damon gives the Yankees a true leadoff hitter again, batting 50 points higher than in 2007 and reclaiming his playing time from Melky Cabrera. With these two, New York presents a lineup full of proven hitters, save for Robinson Cano.

Over the past three years, the first base position has been manned by the pitcher-friendly trio of Doug Mientkiewicz, Andy Phillips, and an aging Tino Martinez. With Giambi at first, it opens up the DH position to Hideki Matsui or the hottest hitter at the time.

4. A career year by Mariano Rivera.

Rivera has always been great, but this season he is the best closer in baseball. One could make a case for Joakim Soria or K-Rod, but the 1.22 ERA, zero blown saves, and six earned runs tell the whole story.

Mariano is on the top of his game, and that's the one thing the Rays or Red Sox can't equal.

Getting the ball to Rivera, which has been a problem in the past, is made easier thanks to good performances by Kyle Farnsworth and Edwar Ramirez.

The middle innings doomed the Yankees many times last year, but it doesn't seem to be as much of a problem now, as long as LaTroy Hawkins (5.63 ERA) isn't allowed to touch the mound.

Overall, it seems like the Yankees have a good chance at taking over the AL East once again. History is on their side, and this year's team is likely better, talent-wise, than past incarnations.

However, there are some factors that make the Yanks' 2008 run unique, and tougher as well. We'll address those next.