Dwayne Bowe, Selvin Young: Will They Become Victims of the Sophomore Slump?
The term "Sophomore Slump" has become well known around the NFL and has proven itself as more than mere superstition.
In 2005, Tampa Bay's Michael Clayton saw his reception total decline from 80 in 2004, to 32, as well as a decline in his number of yards, 1,193 to 372, and his TDs, from seven to zero.
In 2006, another Buccaneer took the honor. Cadillac Williams saw his Rookie of the Year numbers deflate in his second season, going from 1,178 yards to 798. His yards-per-carry average declined from 4.1 in 2005, to 3.5 the next year, and went from six TDs his rookie year to one in his sophomore year.
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Even Vince Young fell victim in 2007, watching his passing TDs decrease from a mediocre 12 his rookie year to a dismal nine his sophomore year, and increasing his interception total from 13 in 2006 to 17 in 2007.
Of course, there are plenty who break the mold, but that's not why we're here.
We're here to discuss my top-three candidates who could run into the dreaded "Sophomore Slump" in 2008. Usually I like to do a top five, but last year's rookie class didn't impress much right off the bat.
So without further a due, let's begin the countdown:
3. Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Indianapolis Colts
Gonzalez was fourth among rookie receivers last year in TDs and receiving yards with three and 576, respectively. He may be forced to play outside this year, thanks to the Marvin Harrison situation. Without Marv there to take pressure off the slot, Gonzalez will be hard pressed to hit the 500-yard mark again.
2. Selvin Young, RB, Denver Broncos
Most think Young is poised for a breakout this year. I disagree. Why? Two words: Ryan Torain. Broncos head coach Mike Shanahan has been praising Torain's "first-round ability" ever since he drafted him, and that may not be good news for Young.
Shanahan is not afraid to go with the unpopular pick, as he showed in 2006 when undrafted, rookie free-agent Mike Bell started for the team and racked up eight TDs, only to have his job stripped in 2007 by Travis Henry.
Selvin Young impressed last year with 729 yards on a very impressive 5.2 yards-per-carry average, but his job is by no means secure. If he loses his job to Torain, he'll be in for a slump.
1. Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Dwayne Bowe overachieved last year when he racked up 995 yards and five TDs, despite having to deal with the quarterback controversy of Brodie Croyle vs. Damon Huard vs. Herm Edwards' 12-year-old nephew.
Can he repeat those stats again this year?
I don't think so.
All signs point to him having a breakout in 2008: Branden Albert is on the line, Croyle is the "cemented" starter, and a healthy Larry Johnson is in the backfield.
But defenses know about Bowe now. He'll face more double-coverages and won't be able to duplicate his numbers in 2008. Fantasy owners beware.
Take this with a grain of salt. I don't have a crystal ball and none of these are for sure, but if you're running a fantasy league and are thinking about taking a chance on these guys, keep this in the back of your mind.

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