Greg Norman Leads the British Open Today, but Will He Choke Tomorrow?

If you're going to root for Greg Norman to win tomorrow's British Open, may I give a small suggestion: keep a bottle of Maalox and maybe a mild sedative nearby.

Because, chances are, your stomach will be churning and quivering by the 18th hole.

If you followed golf at all before the Tiger Woods boom, you know the perils of Greg Norman in major championships. Norman is so good, so talented, such a pure striker of the ball. But, his sheer power and skill aren't enough to compensate for his one major flaw: he chokes.

It's painful to even write the word "choke." In fact, sometimes Norman's failures haven't been caused purely by choking, but rather a mixture of choking and falling victim to lucky shots by his opponents. No matter how they happen, though, Norman's losses are always painful.

1986 PGA. Norman's driver gets wild on the back nine, and his once solid lead slowly withers away. Norman then watches as Bob Tway holes out from the 18th bunker for a one-stroke victory.

1987 Masters. Norman misses a 10-footer on the 18th green for the win. Minutes later, Larry Mize chips in for a birdie on the second playoff hole to take the green jacket.

1989 British Open. Norman sprays his drive into a bunker beside the 18th fairway in a four-hole playoff and never even finishes the hole. Mark Calcavecchia birdies the last and claims the Claret Jug.

And, of course, we have to bring it up: the 1996 Masters. Norman walks to the first tee with a six-stroke lead, and four hours later on the 18th green, finds himself in Nick Faldo's consoling arms.

If you've never watched a Norman final round, let me give you a quick play-by-play of what usually happens.

• Norman, at or near the lead, plays the first few holes well. This gives the impression that he'll continue his momentum and have the juice to win the tournament.
• Then, late on the back nine, Norman begins to show signs of faltering. He starts to hit sloppy shots; maybe a sloppy drive or a short missed putt, and his lead begins to shrink. The pit begins to form in your stomach.
• As the back nine begins, the inevitable moment happens when you realize that Norman is in full meltdown mode. Sometimes, he'll hit a water hazard, or bogey consecutive holes, or absolutely spray a shot well clear of the stands. That pit in your stomach grows even bigger.
• Norman then gives a lull of false hope, by birdying a hole or making a miraculously good shot. You breathe a sigh of relief.
• Then, the coup de gras happens. This final ounce of pain usually comes in one of two forms: either a complete disaster (like his shot into the water at Augusta's 16th), or a painfully unexpected blow to the heart (a la Mize's chip).

Will Norman follow this script tomorrow, at age 53, probably his last real chance to win a major championship and stun the golf world?

I can't predict for sure. Although he is playing so solidly, bombing drives of almost 400 yards and demonstrating a killer short game, I can't help but be extremely concerned about his tendency to break down in pressure situations.

A few months ago, I was writing an article about the perils of choking in key sports situations. While researching for the column, I had the pleasure of interviewing a person who was very close to Norman during the 1996 Masters (I can't reveal who for sake of anonymity).

He described what he saw in Norman on the morning of that final round: Norman was leading the tournament he loved so much and wanted so badly to win, yet didn't seem to show a care in the world. Norman was too loose, too nonchalant, and too unfocused.

Norman's friend knew that he was going to lose before he even stepped onto the golf course.

From my studies of the mechanics behind chokes, my theory is this: Norman begins the round by just focusing on playing golf and not about what's at stake. He tries to utilize the old cliche, "take it one shot at a time."

But inevitably, Norman is shell shocked during the round by the reality of his circumstances.

Norman either realizes that he's letting a major slip through his fingers by not focusing hard enough, or plays well and then suddenly awakens to the fact that a major championship is within grasp.

This sudden change of emotion is disaster for athletes.

On the other hand, though, Norman is a changed man. He has a new wife who can sympathize with his former perils, and is probably the driving force behind this middle-aged surge. Will Chris Evert force Norman to kick his game into overdrive?

And, will that overdrive help Norman to settle down and play consistently, or will it encourage the same erratic swings that have constantly denied him golf immortality? 

It's a crapshoot to predict what will happen. Norman knows full well that this is his last chance to achieve glory. He knows that his loving wife has never experienced a major win. And, he knows that virtually the entire world will be rooting for the old Shark to pull through one more time.

Will tomorrow's final round resemble the heartbreaking trainwreck of Norman's 1996 Masters collapse? Or, will it stir the same emotions as Jack Nicklaus' tear-inducing 1986 Masters triumph? Here's hoping we see the latter.

Oh, by the way, while we're talking about the 1986 Masters, do you remember who came in second that year?

Yep, none other than Greg Norman. Everyone gets so wrapped up in Nicklaus' comeback that we forget how Norman was tied for the lead standing on the 18th tee.

What happened, you ask? Norman hit a good drive down the middle. Then, staring down the flagstick and trying to make birdie for the win, Norman yanked a long iron well right of the gallery. He walked off with bogey and the first of his painful major losses a few moments later.

Wouldn't it be fitting for the player who fell victim to the greatest golf moment of our generation to close out his career with one spectacular payback?