Training camp practices are set to begin on July 26 in Miami, so now is a good time to start my annual practice of sorting through the personnel of each position to gauge the strengths and weaknesses of the Dolphins as they head into camp.
These positional previews will also give us an idea of which training camp battles will be the most heated when it comes time to decide who fills those last few roster spots.
Last year, I chose to start my previews on the defensive side of the ball because that unit was considered to be much more stable than the offense was at that point in time.
Well, it's quite a stretch to consider either the offense or defense a stable unit heading into training camp this season, but I think the offense is a better place to start this time around.
The look at the offense will begin with the most important position on the field, the quarterbacks.
What to expect: No one has any idea how this will turn out. Expectations for this group are all over the place. The only thing we know for sure is that there is a heap of uncertainty surrounding all three of the guys competing for the starting job.
I think the smartest route to take is that of giving John Beck every opportunity to prove himself before turning to Josh McCown, who has repeatedly proven that he is replacement material, at best.
I think Henne should be developed on the bench this year, at least as long as possible. Miami's offense doesn't have nearly enough talent to help anyone who lines up behind center, so things could get ugly quickly and I would not be surprised if there are several QB switches during the year.
The key is for the coaching staff to have patience with Beck when he does get a chance to play. This season isn't about winning now. The team needs to know what it has in Beck. If they feel he isn't the answer after the season, then they can concentrate on moving Henne up the depth chart.
Here's a closer look at the individual quarterbacks currently on the roster and what can be expected of them this coming season:
John Beck
There can be no beating around the bush here. Beck's rookie season was a disaster. A significant bulk of his positive production came in Week 17 garbage time against the Bengals.
There were hardly any starting QBs who played worse than Beck last season. He took too many sacks, was easily flustered in the pocket, and made too many careless decisions that led to turnovers.
Of course, this isn't a purely one-sided story. After all, he was a rookie who should never have been playing to begin with. Cam Cameron's plan was to keep Beck on the bench for the whole season, and when he was inserted into the starting lineup, it was with almost no practice reps with the first team.
Talk about a recipe for disaster. I was very happy with his mental toughness though. He never quit, even after taking a beating.
6 comments Last one added 11 months ago — Leave a Comment
Angel Navedo 11 months ago
I really can't see Beck getting the starter nod immediately. The team is Chad Henne's without a doubt. The fact that he was drafted to begin with is the most significant tell of what the team's plans are. But you know this.
McCown should start Week 1. If he proves to be the same inconsistent and alarmingly mediocre QB he's been his entire career, then he should hold on to the starting position. If Miami's season comes close to looking like it did a year ago, I'd expect McCown to be benched, and John Beck to be given one more shot. Like you said, his age and inexperience is going to be the deciding factor if he doesn't step up significantly with an opportunity. Otherwise a good read. It's nice to see how the enemy feels about their team.
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Sam L 11 months ago
Thanks for the comment, Angel.
You very well could be right. The coaching staff may want to start off the season with the experienced hand. I just think that Beck, even at this point, is the better overall option. And he's probably past the point of significant progression from the bench. He needs to see playing time, and it would help if he knew he was the starter before the season began, rather than having to abruptly transition into the starter's role once McCown inevitably fails.
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Tony Asci 11 months ago
First off I'd like to say--great article. Glad someone out there loves the 'Fins as much as I do.
I agree with you for the most part. As a life long Fish fan, I am a little leary about a long-term plan; especially since I was spoiled my whole life with THE PLAYOFFS, even when the Dolphins weren't all that good.
Be that as it may, I still must comment on your analysis of McCown. True, he's not the answer. But is he serviceable? I think so. Let's forget about everything he's done (or more importantly, NOT done) up until his time in Oakland. Lat year with the Raiders, he was an effective QB (when he was healthy). The Raiders couldn't really do anything when Culpepper took over (except against our Dolphins...oh, the irony). Then, they suddenly found a running game. In fact, I distinctly remember a buddy of mine in my fantasy league (a Raider fan) who picked up McCown before the first game of the season, and I thought, "Moron." As the weeks went by though, I couldn't help but notice that McCown was doing a good job on a crappy team...a team with no apparent run game, and he put up great numbers until he got sidelined.
In some strange, non-static way, I think that McCown IS absolutely the answer for now...he's a cost-efficient stop gap. Regardless of what young QB the Fins want to take the helm in the near future, right now they need someone to hold down the fort for a few weeks or months until Beck or Henne are ready. To think Beck will be able to come right in Week 1 and do good things is unrealistic. If he were in the same system as he was last year, I'd say give him the starting job. But being that there is a new staff and a new system in place, the veteran should have the edge, if for nothing else, the first month of the season. Think about what QB's have come into contact with Parcells and Sparano...if McCown doesn't work out, we might end up with a 47-yr. old Drew Bledsoe, or even worse--the AARP president himself--Viiny Testaverde. I'm hoping McCown staves these two old men off.
Besides, this new offense is going to be a RUN FIRST unit. Just look at our TE's and FB's. We've got run blockers all over this roster. When Ronnie Brown is back to full health (October?) the one- two- punch possibilities are going to dictate the offense, and it only requires the QB to not turn the ball over...not a tough job, right?
I think it's McCown (starter), Beck (back-up), and then Henne (clipboard/head-set guy)...
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Sam L 11 months ago
Thanks for the thoughtful comment, Tony.
However, I'm leery whenever anyone judges a player based on fantasy performance. A much better way of looking at Josh McCown's effectiveness is to look at his rate stats and advanced metrics, provided by Football Outsiders. The main stats they use are DVOA and DYAR.
From FootballOutsiders.com: "[DVOA] represents value, per play, over an average quarterback in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player's performance. Negative DVOA represents below-average offense." As a baseline, -12.5% represents replacement level.
"[DYAR] gives the value of the quarterback's performance compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage."
So now let's take a look at McCown's career numbers, with his rank among all QBs who met the minimum number of passes to qualify (DYAR is not yet available for years before 2005):
2007: DVOA (-29.1%, Rank: 48 out of 51), DYAR (-239, Rank: 48/51)
2005: DVOA (-6.8%, Rank: 24/46), DYAR (80, Rank: 26/46)
2004: DVOA (-7.6%, Rank: 26/42)
2003: DVOA (-28.7%, Rank: 41/47)
2002: DVOA (-189.6%, Not enough passes to qualify)
Career completion pct.: 57.9%
Career QB rating: 71.6
Career TD/INT ratio: 35/40
Aside from two relatively serviceable years in 2004 and 2005, McCown has been pretty awful during his career, particularly last season. I'm not sure what positives you saw from him last year, but he fumbled 11 times in 9 games and threw 11 picks as well. He threw a disarmingly high 5.8% of his passes for INTs last year. His best games last year back up my point that he plays best when the opposing team can't plan for him. His best starts were in Week 1 and then in Week 13 when he returned to the starting lineup. The seven other games he played in last season were all around terrible.
Remember, McCown's learning this new system as well. And given his poor career performances up to this point, I just don't see what kind of veteran advantage he has. It makes no sense to me to start him.
Also remember that you run when you win, not win when you run. Yes, this offense will be heavily based on the run, but the QB will need to do his fair share to win the games.
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Charlie Culp 11 months ago
I enjoyed the article, and agree with the assessment. What bothers me is that none of these individuals is what the dolphins need. Granted Ive watched the dolphins since 67 and continue to fantasize about finding another great QB, but being more realistic I d rather have a Griese and I dont see the makings in any of these guys. To be honest I thought Parcels was going to fix that first, as the team has to have a leader in building whether win or lose. I believe until that situation is resolved the dolphins will not see another banner in the stadium.
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Tony Asci 11 months ago
I am being overly optimistic...I know. Charlie pretty much hit the nail on the head with the idea that no QB on the roster looks very productive. I almost feel like this upcoming season is a wash for the Fish, as the staff is looking toward the 09-10 season to have the pieces in place to make a run at the playoffs.
As a life-long, die-hard fan, that's unacceptable, but it is what it is. Until then, I'll keep rooting for McClown...what else can I do?
I'd love to see Henne pan out, but if he gets any playing time this season, it means something terrible has happened.
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