2010 Preakness: How To Wager Against Super Saver

I won't bore you with the details as I'm sure you'll read quite a few renditions of the Preakness and it's mark as the second leg of the Triple Crown.

I'll get right to the meat and potatoes. 

Who will beat Super Saver this weekend?

Why do I say as much?  Because I am very positive that Super Saver will not win the Preakness Stakes this Saturday. 

So, if Super Saver won't win.  Who will?

Let's take a peek at the field and see what we can find:

Aikenite: This Todd Pletcher trained colt has had a lot of talk about him for a horse with little results.  Outside of his opening maiden victory, Aikenite has not crossed the finish line first in his next seven successive outings.

While he has ran in nothing but graded stakes races since his maiden, he hasn't been able to defeat many of the horses that ran in the Kentucky Derby just two weeks ago.  In fact, he couldn't run in the Kentucky Derby because he didn't earn enough Graded Stakes earnings as the other 20 horses that ran in the Kentucky Derby, even with a last ditch effort by Pletcher in the Derby Trial a week before the Kentucky Derby.

Now for the positive.  Obviously Pletcher is a firm believer in this colt's ability.  And while he hasn't done much in 2010, he did finish second in that final try to get into the Derby only to get beaten by the newly scratched Hurricane Ike. 

He'll be a value play at 20-1 or better, but it doesn't look promising that he can overcome even this field of fairly tame horses.  The bottom of exotics looks like his best chance.

Schoolyard Dreams: This improving colt has hit the board in five out of six lifetime tries.  The nice thing to see is that he started out his career in a mile and a 1/16th race as a two-year old.  Most times, we see even Kentucky Derby champions start out at six furlongs as they look to mature their horses into the longer distances of a mile or more.

What is also nice to like about this colt is that he has actually crossed the finish line ahead of Super Saver in a race ran earlier this year.  A race (Florida Derby) in which he lost by a nose to the late charging colt Odysseus. 

Since his April 3rd eleven length loss to early Kentucky Derby favorite, Eskendereya, Schoolyard has been working out like a monster with two :59 3/5ths works over differing tracks leading up to this race. 

At 15-1, this is an extremely appetizing horse that has a nice fit of enough speed with enough stamina to hang the entire mile and 3/16ths.  A definite longshot possibility.

Pleasant Prince: You have to go back to his Florida Derby second place finish to a late closing Ice Box to find something good on his form. 

His last two races in the Derby Trial and Blue Grass are very little to get excited about. 

Now for the excuses.  The Derby Trial was on a muddy track, and the Blue Grass was on Poly.  If you can scratch those two races off of his ledger, you can definitely see a vastly improving horse.  His :59 and change work at Keeneland along with his bloodlines of A.P. Indy and Pleasant Tap are also some other things to take notice of.

While he seems a huge risk for a win, it wouldn't be shocking if he finds the dirt to his favor again at Pimlico.  Don't throw this horse away in Exact and Trifecta wagering.  He could be the spoiler that many don't have on their wagerings.

Win?  It would be a huge upset in what is a rather weak field.

Northern Giant:   This colt didn't break his maiden until February 4th of this year.  And that took six tries at rather modest Special Weight conditions. 

After that win, his connections pointed him towards Graded Stakes runs in the Risen Star on February 20th, Lanes End on March 27th, and the Arkansas Derby on April 10th. 

How did he do in those challenges?  Third, Second, and Ninth.  And only in his last did he really face any type of real challenge like he will see on the Triple Crown trail.

While I hate to dismiss a colt out of Giant's Causeway that is trained by D.Wayne Lukas, this guy seems like he is really up against it.  You also can't like the tote board attention this horse has received during his entire career.  He has only been favored once in his entire career and that was when he broke his Maiden in his sixth try.

Yawanna Twist: Here we go.  A lightly raced colt that has only four lifetime efforts to date. 

Starting out his career just this past December, Yawanna popped an 85 Beyer in his win and came back to win an Allowance race against a horse who won his next out.

You also have to like his tow true preps in Graded Stakes in which he has finished a well-placed second in both tries.  While he was beaten by Kentucky Derby also-rans in American Lion and Awesome Act, he wasn't exactly pounded or made to look bad in either. 

Out of Yonaguska, this colt has the breeding to keep getting better and stronger as age passes by.  At a morning line of 30-1, this looks like a very lively longshot that is well placed in this race that could be sitting on a huge one.  I wouldn't suggest leaving this guy off of any ticket that you are looking to wager.

Jackson Bend: My Kentucky Derby pick ran an extremely dismal 12th and was never in the race. 

With that said, I'm looking for him to fire back in the Preakness and at least make a reasonable showing.  Taking into account a horrible trip in the Derby, I'm not sure that he fits all that well with these.  While he has been solidly wagered throughout his entire career, the Derby patrons had him rightly pegged at 23-1, and basically without any chance.

With a morning line of 12-1, I'd like to think he'll improve due his bad trip in Louisville, he may just be a good horse that just ins't good enough on the Triple Crown trail.  I'll pass on this one, and maybe live to regret it, but in all reality he really isn't that much better than Aikenite when all is said and done.  Looking elsewhere, but I'll keep him on the bottom of some exotics just for pride's sake.

Lookin At Lucky: The Derby favorite at least comes back to try and tackle Super Saver.  As well he should.

Finishing a disappointing sixth, this guy simply didn't give up in the Derby amid a ton of trouble and a completely disastrous start.  Breaking from the gate, this guy ended up 18th in the shuffle and twenty-two lengths back.  He was then bumped a number of times and was faced with the normal myriad of traffic trying to get back into the race.

Even with all his trouble, he did make up seven lengths on Super Saver in the Derby while Super was given yet another perfect rail trip from Calvin Borel. 

At a Morning Line of 3-1, he very much looks like the biggest challenger to Super Saver.  In reality? I think 3-1 is almost feeling like thievery in this field. He should be the favorite.

Caracortado: He'll have a strong contingent of West Coast gamblers on his side.  He started his career in blistering fashion with five straight wins.  Then he ran into Sidney's Candy, and the best West Coast three-year olds on the circuit.

How did he fare?

Not bad.  While he was solidly beaten, he managed to finish a respectable third and fourth against the strong minded Poly runner in Sidney.  He may well like the change to dirt, but the ship and past performances against a bunch of horses who didn't even make an imprint on the Kentucky Derby lead me to believe that he will likely be overbet. 

In fact, he is a Morning Line 10-1.  Without a solid Jockey and Trainer combination to back, I'm finding it hard to believe a first-time dirt horse is going to be much of a factor in this one.  Very much looking elsewhere.

Paddy O'Prado: Hard to dismiss his solid effort in the Kentucky Derby.  Looking over his past six race of his last seven lifetime starts he becomes very intriguing in this race.  He has shown that he can sit just off the pace as well as come from well behind.  With his pure tactical speed ability alone, it is tough to discard his chances of actually pulling off the victory this time around.

Negatives?  He has only one lifetime victory, and that one basically gained him entrance into the Kentucky Derby in which he ran the race of his short career.  His works before the Derby were very indicative of his performance as well.

How will he come out of the Derby is the question.  Outside of Super Saver, he is likely the most able to 'bounce' in this second race in two weeks.  With that said, he obviously possesses a lot of talent, and it wouldn't be all that shocking if he turned back this weekend and turned in a winning performance.  I'm still looking elsewhere.

First Dude: With a career best 90 Beyer and an inability to at least get the lead, this is likely the most illogical winner of the Preakness of anybody in the race. 

While he is lightly raced with only six lifetime starts, his form and all over the board type racing are keen to him being simply outmatched, even against these.  Not only that, he has proven he can't come close to beating a couple in here when he had ever chance to do so. 

With all that said, Ramon Dominguez is on board, and Dale Romans also has Paddy O'Prado in the race to pose an intriguing 1-2 punch.  I still just can't see him being all that competitive.

Dublin:   Nice.  My second pick in the Derby is back again to try and show his wares.  Now he has the outside post to try and keep clear of traffic.

Maybe not a bad spot for him, but it still is painful to see a horse somewhat falter when the real racing began in the Kentucky Derby.

It also doesn't hurt to have the new jockey in Garret Gomez on board either.  One of the most respected in the business and a definite upgrade over his Derby rider.  At an early Morning Line of 10-1, he'll be a large part of many tickets I'll have wagered on Saturday.

A look at his past three races and you see that he was severely bothered by traffic in the Derby, finished third by a neck to Derby winner Super Saver in his race before, and then was only three back in his third back race to Lookin At Lucky.

So how do we make it happen?

Upset :  Yawanna Twist or Schoolyard Dreams

Best Bet:   Lookin At Lucky

Exacta:   Yawanna Twist, Schoolyard Dreams, Lookin At Lucky, and Dublin in an Exacta Box

Trifecta and Super wagering:   I'd put Yawanna on top for the big one, and deal in some three of the others I have listed in the Place hole.  From there, don't forget about Paddy O'Prado, Jackson Bend, and the race favorite in Super Saver to seal the deal.

Happy wagering.