Martin Truex Jr. at Dale Earnhardt Inc..: Should He Stay Or Should He Go?

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Ever since Dale Earnhardt Inc. announced its intention to pick up Martin Truex Jr.’s contract option for the 2009 season, speculation on the driver’s future has increased exponentially.

Over the past 10 races, the New Jersey driver has finished in the top 20 nine times, with a 34th at Lowe’s Motor Speedway the lone exception. While Truex currently finds himself 17th in points, he has attracted interest from such teams as Richard Childress Racing and Team Penske for next season.

Truex has also been rumored to join the new Stewart-Haas Racing team for 2009, alongside Tony Stewart.

Certainly, Truex ought to feel like the subject of the Clash’s 1981 hit single, “Should I Stay Or Should I Go?” After the incident at Daytona that left the No. 1 team $100,000 lighter in the wallet and 150 points in the hole, Truex was said to be furious and looking to abandon the only Sprint Cup team he’s ever known for 2009.

However, given the other opportunities available, Truex might be wise to bide his time at DEI. Every available ride that he’s been considering has some sort of major flaw that could seriously damage his championship prospects for 2009 and beyond. So, here’s why Martin Truex Jr. should remain with Dale Earnhardt Inc. for the 2009 season:

1. Lack of owners’ points on the No. 33 car

The fourth Childress team has competed in one Sprint Cup Race this season, the Coca-Cola 600 with Ken Schrader behind the wheel. The car will be nowhere near within the top 35 in owners’ points, so Truex would have to qualify for the first five races of the season on speed.

With the Daytona 500 qualifying race rules getting more complex by the year, it’s likely that Truex would miss the opening event of the season, if not more events early on.

While Truex has a career average start of 18.8 in Sprint Cup, he’s only scored one pole in his career. The insecurity of trying to qualify for races on speed early on in the season with a start-up team is something Truex shouldn’t risk.

2. Team Penske’s consistent underperforming teams

Team Penske in NASCAR is not Team Penske in the Indy Racing League. Since 2004, when the Chase format was first implemented, the NASCAR branch of Penske’s team has only won nine races.

Compare that to 16 IRL wins and one championship in about half as many combined starts. Not only that, since their 1-2 finish at the Daytona 500 this year, the departing Ryan Newman and Kurt Busch have sunk to 16th and 18th in points, respectively, with Truex sandwiched in the middle.

Former IRL champion Sam Hornish Jr. is 33rd in the team’s third car. Even its status as one of Dodge’s top teams and consistent financial backing have not put Penske in position to win championships. A move to Penske would be a step sideways for Truex.

3. The inevitable trying first season of Stewart-Haas

At this point, both cars that will become S-H vehicles next season are teetering around the 35th place mark in owners’ points, presenting Truex with the same problem he would have at RCR.

However, at least RCR won’t have an entire team overhaul next season. As owner, Stewart expects to clear house, making his new team a hodge-podge of collected crewmen and mechanics that may take a while to build chemistry.

Even heavy Chevrolet factory support may be unreliable in the wake of the company’s massive forthcoming budget cuts.

4. Everything fits at DEI

Only by staying where he is will Truex be a team’s No. 1, figuratively and literally. He will rank above Aric Almirola and Paul Menard, and Regan Smith if the No. 01 team does not fold.

With Mark Martin’s departure for Hendrick Motorsports, the company has an extra $8 million to work with in bringing back Truex for his contract option year.

He would remain with longtime crew chief Kevin “Bono” Manion and crew members that saw him to the 2004 and 2005 Nationwide Series championships.

5. Many other, better rides will be open after 2009

The contracts of Kurt Busch, David Ragan, Matt Kenseth, Jamie McMurray, Kevin Harvick, David Gilliland, Juan Pablo Montoya, Brian Vickers, and A.J. Allmendinger are known to expire after the 2009 season.

Six of those drivers’ teams are currently in the top 20 in points, with McMurray’s a close 22nd and Gilliland not much further back in 25th. It’s also likely that some other drivers will lose their rides between now and the end of next season.

If, say, Harvick decides to follow Stewart’s path into Sprint Cup ownership, Truex could find himself a much better ride just by waiting until next year.

By allowing DEI to pick up their option on him for the 2009 season, Truex sets him up for what could potentially be a larger windfall in 2010, with better teams and bigger money.

All he needs to do is sit through one more season with the team that gave him his first opportunity in the big leagues before moving on.

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