The consensus within the F1 community is that we cannot analyse Practice session times, and that we cannot say that they will represent who will be on the pace come qualifying or race day. I myself am guilty of saying this on a number of occasions, and I will openly admit this.
I have been quoted as saying nothing can be taken from Practice session times because there are too many factors that are changing. Teams may be holding certain things back for qualifying and race day that they don’t want out in the open in practice.
But as I watched Practice session 1 of the Hockenheim GP, I got thinking about practice times, and could anything actually be taken from them at all? The research began right after practice session 2. This article is all about my findings.
Please find below each race so far this season broken down into five sections, the three practice sessions (two on Friday and one on Saturday), qualifying and the race fastest lap.
I have not taken weather into consideration because there have only really been two races where the weather has been a deciding factor, so let’s pretend for argument's sake that all sessions where dry.
I have used the full practice session data, I have used the top 10 shoot-out data for qualifying, and I have used the DHL fastest lap times for the race data.
(Sources – www.grandprix.com / www.formula1.com)
(*** - Denotes fastest time of the Race weekend.)
Australia
- Practice 1 - Kimi Raikkonen (Ferrari) 1:26.461
- Practice 2 - Lewis Hamilton (McLaren-Mercedes) 1:26.559
- Practice 3 - Robert Kubica (BMW Sauber) 1:25.613 ***
- Qualifying - Lewis Hamilton (McLaren-Mercedes) 1:26.714
- Race Fastest Lap - Heikki Kovalainen (McLaren-Mercedes) 1:27.418
Malaysia
- Practice 1 - Felipe Massa (Ferrari) 1:35.392
- Practice 2 - Lewis Hamilton (McLaren-Mercedes) 1:35.055
- Practice 3 - Nick Heidfeld (BMW Sauber) 1:35.019 ***
- Qualifying - Felipe Massa (Ferrari) 1:35.748
- Race Fastest Lap - Nick Heidfeld (BMW Sauber) 1:35.366
Bahrain
- Practice 1 - Felipe Massa (Ferrari) 1:32.233
- Practice 2 - Felipe Massa (Ferrari) 1:31.420 ***
- Practice 3 - Nico Rosberg (Williams-Toyota) 1:32.521
- Qualifying - Robert Kubica (BMW Sauber) 1:33.096
- Race Fastest Lap - Heikki Kovalainen (McLaren-Mercedes) 1:33.193
Spain
- Practice 1 - Kimi Raikkonen (Ferrari) 1:20.649 ***
- Practice 2 - Kimi Raikkonen (Ferrari) 1:21.935
- Practice 3 - Nick Heidfeld (BMW Sauber) 1:21.269
- Qualifying - Kimi Raikkonen (Ferrari) 1:21.813
- Race Fastest Lap - Kimi Raikkonen (Ferrari) 1:21.670
Turkey
- Practice 1 - Felipe Massa (Ferrari) 1:27.323
- Practice 2 - Kimi Raikkonen (Ferrari) 1:27.543
- Practice 3 - Mark Webber (Red Bull-Renault) 1:27.030
- Qualifying - Felipe Massa (Ferrari) 1:27.617
- Race Fastest Lap - Kimi Raikkonen (Ferrari) 1:26.506 ***
Monaco
- Practice 1 - Kimi Raikkonen (Ferrari) 1:15.948
- Practice 2 - Lewis Hamilton (McLaren-Mercedes) 1:15.140 ***
- Practice 3 - Heikki Kovalainen (McLaren-Mercedes) 1:16.567
- Qualifying - Felipe Massa (Ferrari) 1:15.787
- Race Fastest Lap - Kimi Raikkonen (Ferrari) 1:16.689
Today's Must Reads
Canada
- Practice 1 - Felipe Massa (Ferrari) 1:17.553
- Practice 2 - Lewis Hamilton (McLaren-Mercedes) 1:15.752 ***
- Practice 3 - Nico Rosberg (Williams-Toyota) 1:16.555
- Qualifying - Lewis Hamilton (McLaren-Mercedes) 1:17.886
- Race Fastest Lap - Kimi Raikkonen (Ferrari) 1:17.387
France
- Practice 1 - Felipe Massa (Ferrari) 1:15.306 ***
- Practice 2 - Fernando Alonso (Renault) 1:15.778
- Practice 3 - Nelson Piquet (Renault) 1:15.750
- Qualifying - Kimi Raikkonen (Ferrari) 1:16.449
- Race Fastest Lap - Kimi Raikkonen (Ferrari) 1:16.630
Britain
- Practice 1 - Felipe Massa (Ferrari) 1:19.575 ***
- Practice 2 - Heikki Kovalainen (McLaren-Mercedes) 1:19.989
- Practice 3 - Fernando Alonso (Renault) 1:20.740
- Qualifying - Heikki Kovalainen (McLaren-Mercedes) 1:21.049
- Race Fastest Lap - Kimi Raikkonen (Ferrari) 1:32.150
Only one out of the nine rounds has a fastest time that wasn’t recorded in the practice sessions. That was in Turkey, where Kimi Raikkonen went fastest of anyone over the full weekend on race day.
The rest of the data shows that the fastest times clocked of the weekend were achieved in the practice sessions, and never in qualifying. Interesting stuff, I think. Maybe the teams do go all out in the practice sessions?
On race day, factors such as tyre preservation, engine/gearbox preservation, fuel consumption, pit stop strategies and qualifying fuel loads are all taken into consideration.
With all this, maybe a fastest lap isn’t possible because the driver is not pushing as hard as he would in qualifying or practice so as not to damage his finishing place.
In qualifying, Q1, and Q2 are normally done on the optimum tyres for the surface and with the lightest fuel load possible. This is the first reason why I haven’t considered them in my investigation.
Secondly, when in the top 10 shoot-out, don’t forget that the drivers are fueled for the first stint of the race which is another reason why they might not be able to go as fast due to the extra weight.
So far this weekend (at time of writing) the times look like this:
Germany
- Practice 1 - Lewis Hamilton (McLaren-Mercedes) 1:15.537
- Practice 2 - Lewis Hamilton (McLaren-Mercedes) 1:15.025 *** (So far)
- Practice 3 - TBC
- Qualifying - TBC
- Race Fastest Lap - TBC
Taking into consideration that the fastest lap done on this track is a 1:13:780 (Kimi Raikkonen, McLaren-Mercedes, 2004) the chances of a lap being done faster than that of Lewis Hamilton’s time in session 2 are fairly slim. (Updates to follow at bottom of article in amendment as times are processed). So what does it all mean in conclusion?
Well I think that I have to retract all previous statements that have ruled out practice times. Looking at this data, it is plain to see that we can look at practice times and realise that the drivers on the pace in practising are certainly capable of fast times in the race.
Yes, I am fully aware that there are far more factors to be looked at when trying to figure out who is quick, who will win, and who will be quick in qualifying. All I am saying is the Practice sessions are a good place to start.
What do you guys think? Add Comments, Stars and POTD please.
Ben, Over and Out!
P.S. – Wasn't that a short article from me? I must be losing my touch?
Amendment 1: July 19, 2008
After the Saturday AM practice session 3, this is how it stands:
Germany
- Practice 1 - Lewis Hamilton (McLaren-Mercedes) 1:15.537
- Practice 2 - Lewis Hamilton (McLaren-Mercedes) 1:15.025 *** (So far)
- Practice 3 - Heikki Kovalainen (McLaren-Mercedes) 1:15:621
- Qualifying - TBC
- Race Fastest Lap - TBC
So far, it's a silver weekend. Good news for me, but not so much for our Tifosi, but what can we expect from now on, though?
Looking at previous stats, Q1 and Q2 will be roughly the same as the times we have been seeing on the practice sessions. We can expect times around about 1:15:00 through to about 1:15:750. We might even get a break in the norm and see a high 1:14?
One thing I will say is that we can expect the Q3 times to be slightly slower than the practice times. Let's see if I am right.
Amendment 2: July 19th, 2008
After an impressive Q1, Q2 and Q3 here is how it looks now:
Germany
- Practice 1 - Lewis Hamilton (McLaren-Mercedes) 1:15.537
- Practice 2 - Lewis Hamilton (McLaren-Mercedes) 1:15.025 ***
- Practice 3 - Heikki Kovalainen (McLaren-Mercedes) 1:15:621
- Qualifying - Lewis Hamilton (McLaren-Mercedes) 1:15:666
- Race Fastest Lap - TBC
So far so good and my predictions where spot on where I correctly predicted that the Q1 and Q2 times would just sneak under the norm and we would more than likely see some high end 1:14's, which we did.
Hamilton set the fastest time of the weekend in Q2 banging in a 1:14:603, pretty impressive stuff but like I said earlier on in the article we will only be looking at the fully fuelled Q3 times. So with that in mind I was still correct.
Shall I make a prediction for fastest lap tomorrow? Yes, why not... I am going to go with the following:
My heart says - Lewis Hamilton with a 1:15:200 simply because I want McLaren to get the clean sweep of all 5 fast times for this weekend. BUT... My head says - Kimi Raikkonen with a 1:15:100 making it 7 fastest laps in a row.
It will remain to be seen at the GP as to whether I am right or not, amendment number 3 to follow. Watch this space.
Amendment: July 20th, 2008
So there we have it, todays race was AWESOME, it had everything, so down to business, was my prediction right?
Germany
- Practice 1 - Lewis Hamilton (McLaren-Mercedes) 1:15.537
- Practice 2 - Lewis Hamilton (McLaren-Mercedes) 1:15.025 ***
- Practice 3 - Heikki Kovalainen (McLaren-Mercedes) 1:15:621
- Qualifying - Lewis Hamilton (McLaren-Mercedes) 1:15:666
- Race Fastest Lap - Nick Heidfeld (BMW-Sauber) 1:15:987
Was I right? NOPE... Clearly not, but the times where spot on with the rest of the data concluding that yes, we can look at the Practice times and take a lot from them.
While we have established that obviously we cannot say who will win the race, we certainly know what pace the front runners will be going. I will be paying a lot more attention to the friday sessions from now on.
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about 1 month ago
Short ?? are you MAAAD !!! ha ha .
Interesting stuff tho Ben , So i wasnt talking rubbish in my first test times last week , im not dumb after all eh mate?? yay . its interesting how only 1 fastest lap has come on race day , and in turkey as well , i thought kimi had a much more competetive weekend in spain , but looks can be deceiving . i knew you had summat up your sleeve .
ive just loooked tho and my Orange box isnt available until tomorrow , ive 5 starred it up to now , you know how the rest goes , just for being clever enough to trawl through those times and data .
from about 1 month ago
Well its only 1000 words ish, compared to my usual 2000 thats only half the size, it just seems longer because of the stats in the main body of the article ... Ha ha ha ... I am trying to get to the point I am trying to make quicker, honestly ! Ha ha ha !
Nah I have never said you where dumb, just my thoughts on the testing and practice times where the same, I just didnt ever think we could say "Oh yeah he was fast in practice, he is sure to win" ... I just always kicked the facts our because I thought that the teams would be tweaking too much for the times to be as fast as they could / should be ... Now we know ... Yes looks can be deceiving !
Of course I had something up my sleeve ... I always do ;)
As for the POTD, yeah I know how it goes mate ... I still got mine I think so I best go give your articles another read over hey ? ;) ... As for trawling through times and data ... Love analysis of data, its what I do as my day job really so am used to it ... Love it ... Maybe more to come ?
about 1 month ago
Excellent analysis Ben, it makes for a very interesting read and it certainly makes you think, I didnt ever used to really consider the practice times as an indication of where drivers where. I thought it was just like a tyre test that they have every couple of weeks but this one was specific to the particular circuit to fine tune the certain points on the car needed to be competitive, now I know that analysing the practice times could be very handy. Thanks Ben. Great writing, POTD as usual.
from about 1 month ago
Thanks Miles ... Yeah it was a learning experience for me ... Every day is a school day and all that hey !
Thanks for POTD mate ... Apreciate it !
about 1 month ago
Thanks for the detailed analysis Ben. It is very informative and I feel it is going to be close between McLarens and Ferraris this weekend. Its hard to pick who among the 4 will dominate??
from about 1 month ago
I agree, its going to be a good one ... Looking at the times over the 2 weekends its incredibly close ... Looks like strategy and the weather might play a big factor again ! Woo hoo ... I LOVE THIS SPORT !
about 1 month ago
HAha i was planning this same article today, but luckily read yours before I started, was going to do some correlation graphs see if i could see any patterns. Might still give it a go, but you beat to it!
Nice article ben, 5 stars!
from about 1 month ago
See I didnt think to do graphs, ha ha ... Could have been fun but hopefully I have captured what I need to in the article, thanks for the stars and POTD mate, appreciate it !
about 1 month ago
good article ben interesting stuff.... one mistake tho and i know its rare for you
you said "1:13:780 (Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari, 2004)"
but raikkonen was still at mclaren in 2004.
still 5 stars though matey, POTD aswell, nothing else has really grabbed my eye
from about 1 month ago
Ha ha ha ... Whoops ... Thats School Boy aint it, jesus I should have checked ! What an idiot I am ... I didnt even think to check that, I just got the time and the year and then BAM, mind went into auto pilot !
Thanks for that Billy, I appreciate you sorting that for me, cheers for the stars and POTD, great stuff !
about 1 month ago
Ben im ten hours late with my reply .
1st thing
i meant you know the score as in when my POTD is available you will get it Like last time , i would never expect a POTD for a POTD ,it doesnt work like that mate . i only expect them where they are due .
2nd thing
i was referring to me calling myself dumb Over the time sheets last week , i know what5 u mean tho ferrari reguarly sandbag , so its usually hard to tell , but your research / findings say different in most cases .
3rd
How the Fook does Kimi get a 1minute 13 at hockenheim , my best is a 1minute 16 on the PS3 and i have the added comfort of not killing myself , and i go flat out , in kimi's mclaren funnily enuff ( i know its different ), But it just shows you how brave these guys are . vroooooooom .
from about 1 month ago
1st - Yeah I know, no one has my POTD today, its still there, just waiting to be clicked, but thanks again for mine mate, well ... Thanks when it comes ! Ha ha.
2nd - Yes I have blew them out of the water - Ferrari are not sandbagging, they are equally as fast as McLaren, not even top dogs ! Muuuuha ha ha ha !
3rd - I dont know ... I ask myself that a lot lately ... If you look at a lot of the fastest times registered the majority come from 2004 ... I dont know what was different that year ? Tyres ? TC ? I just dont know ?
about 1 month ago
very interesting. could shape up to be a good weekend. would like to see how it pans out and changes / proves your point in this article.
from about 1 month ago
Ha ha ... Yeah I am kinda worried that this weekend proves to be the floor in my full article and everything goes wrong ... Ill just blame it on Germany if it does, ha ha !
about 1 month ago
A fine analysis Ben, you are on the dot. However, fast laps will have nothing to do with winning I suppose, sadly, or this season Kimi would have won more than his fair share of races as he hits the leaderboard in Fast Laps. Sometimes they do tend to sandbag at practice and show better pace at qualifying.
from about 1 month ago
Oh no I agree completely which is why I said the things I said at the back end of the article:
Quote - Yes I am fully aware that there are far more factors to be looked at when trying to figure out who is quick and who will win and who will be quick in qualifying. All I am saying is the Practice sessions are a good place to start.
See ... Ha ha ha ... Plus you have just missed my latest update by about 4 minutes, new amendment at the end of the article, check it out !
from about 1 month ago
hey man, I was not complaining, I find the article so very interesting and I read the article once again
from about 1 month ago
Ha ha ... Awesome ... Thanks Sara, I strive to ensure that I dont let you down !
about 1 month ago
Oh goody, I knew someone would cover it, cheers mate. I had no patience this weekend, nice recap, still think Lewis will win, but with rain a possibility, for like the 6th time, anything can happen.
from about 1 month ago
Yeah I just had to, I have had it on my mind for a couple of weeks now and yesterday I just though, f*ck it ... Lets do it, so I cracked on and it turned out good I thought, ha ha ... Yeah its been a good weekend so far but only by the odd tenth, Massa is looking very quick, Kimi just isnt there for me ... No doubt he will be up there come Q3 though, miserable git ! Ha ha ha !
about 1 month ago
Ben i know why Kimi Got that 1 minute 13 seconds in 2004 , it was before they switched to the v8's , the old v10's it was in 2004 , plus they still hit 20,000 RPM at that time .
Next thing is the Box isnt there for me to POTD it , ill keep looking to see if it appears but i havent used My POTD yet .
from about 1 month ago
Aaaaahhhhhh, good research mate, impressive stuff ... So now we know !
Cheers for the POTD mate, true to your word you are !
about 1 month ago
yeah i know , it was niggling at my mind last night , i kept thinking how did he manage that yet they are all well over a second slower than that this year , then it pinged like a lightbulb , thats the reason michael schumacher holds so many unbeaten lap records from 2004 , so in effect we will never have any new lap records on old circuits because the powers that be swapped the engines after schumi set the pace in v10's , Tw**s !!! .
And im always true to my word , i even gave daniel chalmers the one i promised him after i POTD'd The Roundtable .the box appeared after about ten seconds .
from about 1 month ago
Yeah, I didnt even think about that ... I thought it must have been something to do with tyres or TC ... Didnt even click about the engines ... Good thinking mate. Impressive stuff ! Thanks again for POTD matey.
about 1 month ago
Oh and you can amend the article again for qualifying , felipe massa got the fastest time of the day with a 1:14.921 .
from about 1 month ago
He didnt ... Lewis went quicker still in Q2 with his 1:14:603 ... Even Massa himself beat his own time into Q2 by getting a 1:14:747 ... AND Heikki beat that one to with a 1:14:855 ... Check the timesheets again matey ... I made sure of this ... I cant let any more schoolboy errors slip in. Ha ha !
about 1 month ago
Practice times it would seem do count then. Yeah sometimes I think teams do sandbag quite a lot but then at other times, and it would seem especially at Grand Prix meetings, the times are a genuine reflection.
Excellent article Ben, and an extra browny point for your patience sifting those times. Well done lad! 5 stars
from about 1 month ago
Cheers mate, appreciate that but honestly ... It was my pleasure, I love sifting through stats ... Its great, ha ha !
about 1 month ago
with the amount of fastest laps that kimi has this year, hw interesting would my idea from the RT be of awarding extra points for poles and fastest lap?
currently preparing an article looking at how the table would pan out if my scheme started this season. should be interesting.
from about 1 month ago
Ohhhhh ... Cool ... Looking forward to that ...
about 1 month ago
It's a great idea to analyze the practice sessions and see if they predict something after all. So I really love this article. Ten races are not much to base any statistics on, so for a reliable verdict, race-weekends of previous seasons should also be considered (and who's ready to do that job, ha ha),
Looking into the data you provide, to me it seems like you can't tell too much from the practice sessions indeed, apart from the fact that it's quite likely (70%) that the driver on pole had the fastest time in one of the practice-sessions. Only in 3 out of the ten races, a driver grasped pole, who had not been fastest in one of the practice sessions.
The fastest time overall in the three practice-sessions (and, apart from Turkey, of the whole weekend) does however say almost nothing about who will end on pole: in 7 of the 10 races it was NOT the fastest driver in practice who ended up on pole position. Only Raikkonen in Spain and Hamilton in Canada and Germany were fastest in practice and became no 1 in qualifying.
What I miss a bit in this analysis is that who was the winner of the race...is there a correlation between practicing fast and winning the race?
But as I said: I love this article, it helps us to get more insight and it's a solid piece of writing!
from about 1 month ago
Great comments Maria ... I was slightly rushed at the end of the article so yes maybe I could have looked into things a bit deeper and yes maybe I could have stuck in the race winner in there but thats not what I was looking at, I was basing everything purely on lap times which is why I said at the end of the article about the numerous factors needed to win the race hence not analysing it. But thanks for your comments, it was a great reply and I appreciate your comments very much. Thanks Maria.
about 1 month ago
Thanks Ben. Many factors indeed decide the race but still I guess that in most races the winner would have also been at or near the top in practice. So it is probably not even useful to try and find that correlation, the outcome will be quite predictable,
from about 1 month ago
I just might do it anyway ... Just for arguments sake ... Give me an hour, ha ha ha !
about 1 month ago
great job ben. i don't think practice does show what's going to happen in a race. it very well could, but i think that when race time comes, everything that happened before goes down the toilet.
from about 1 month ago
Yeah of course ... I didnt say that ... Check the main article out again.
Quote - Yes, I am fully aware that there are far more factors to be looked at when trying to figure out who is quick, who will win, and who will be quick in qualifying. All I am saying is the Practice sessions are a good place to start.
See ... Didnt say that it would mean anyone would win, all I am saying is that we shouldnt disregard the times posted in the practice sessions as they are a good place to start to analyse what kind of lap times we will be to expect and also who indeed is on the pace with those times.
about 1 month ago
Ok Ok Ok so you was right ,
i knew someone dipped into the 1m14's tho . ha ha .
sorry mate i only seen massa's on TV , i didnt see lewis or Heikki break the 1m14 barrier on Tv ,
Bad me for not paying attention :-) .
from about 1 month ago
I love it when I am right ... Ha ha ha ... Dont worry about it mate ...
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