UFC 113 Gamblers Guide

Randy JordanContributor IMay 6, 2010

It’s Deja Vu all over again. UFC 113 looks to be one of the years most anticipated events. The biggest reason is due to the vast amount of debating a decision that still isn’t clear. Lyoto Machida will once again defend his title against Mauricio Rua to answer the questions once and for all.

There are a lot of other excellent crowd-pleasing fights on the card so let’s take a look at the fighters and their odds.

I will go through each fighter detailing the odds of them winning and I will tell you why I think it is a good bet.

They key to remember when gambling sports, is that you don’t want to make alot of bets. Your best chance comes by only betting the best lines.

You can find more articles like this at The Beat Down Blog my website, its new but is getting better everyday.

Lyoto Machida (16-0-0) = (-185)

Coming in at close to a  2:1 favorite, Lyoto Machida certainly has the fans behind him.

If the odds started to creep over 1:1, this bet would play itself— But currently, these odds are too high for me to bet with confidence that it is a winner long term.

I will look to find a line that is more distinguishable as a winner, this bet/fight just seems to close to call.

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (18-4-0)  = (+155)

While Shogun may have thought he won the first time, coming in at +155 shows to me the betting crowd thinks he is not going home as the champion again.

I think this line is somewhat incorrect and, could drift towards out favor. If Shogun were to float up to a 2:1, then I wouldn’t hesitate to bet as you are flirting with threshold line that would make a bet profitable — But like the Machida line this isn’t good enough for a bet as it stands.

Josh Koscheck (14-4-0) = (-230)

Coming in at -230, the Josh Koscheck bet is appealing at first glance, but I don’t think it is a clear winner either.

If it were closer to  -200, I would certainly think greater of a bet, and if it was -175 or lower, you would have to make this bet.

I think this line is only going to get higher, so if you plan on betting on Koscheck no matter what, I would do it early before this line goes any higher.

Paul Daley (23-8-2)  = (+180)

Like the Koscheck line, this bet would seem appealing at first glance. I think you should hold off on this bet as it should become slightly better if the Koscheck line rises higher.

Paul Daley has strong hands but is a clear stylistic advantage and the line should reflect that. My thoughts is hold out until it becomes larger than +250, or don’t bet the fight.

Sam Stout (15-5-1) = ( -200)  

This is a fight you will want to keep your eyes on. Not only will it be exciting , you might have a chance to make some money.

I think Stout is the favorite to win this fight. I think the odds are really close to being able to bet with confidence.

If Stout were to drop any more to say -170, then I am going to bet as that seems to be a clear winner in my mind.

Jeremy Stephens (16-5-0) = (+160)

I don’t think Jeremy Stephens is going to be a winner, nor do I think this line will be.

I think Stephens should be a larger underdog than this and the betting line isn’t close to what it should be. Unless this almost doubles then I am not even thinking about betting it.

“Kimbo Slice” (4-1-0)
 = (-115)

Coming in at -115, you can tell Kimbo is a fan favorite fighter.

I don’t think he has shown in his time in the UFC that he would warrant these odds. He has shown tremendous holes in his game and hasn’t fought consistently enough for me to bet him at this line at all.

Matt Mitrione (1-0-0) = (-115)  

The bad Kimbo line makes this one look appealing.

I think I am betting this one as is — Hopefully the line will become better as more people bet on Kimbo.

If Meathead has a good game-plan he should be more that able to live up to the -115 odds, I like this bet.

Patrick Cote (13-5-0)
= (-105)  

If Cote had never blown out his knee completely, I would be jumping at this line. I still think it is somewhat appealing in a pure gambling sense.

If you think his injury didn’t hamper him, then I think this line is a steal. For me, there are too many question marks to bet on Cote until I see him after the 1.5 year layoff.

Alan Belcher (15-6-0) = (-125)

The questions surrounding Cote make Alan Belcher bet seem more appealing.

The simple fact that there are factors unaccounted for make me hesitant to bet this fight at all.

I think that Belcher while on the rise wouldn’t be able to beat the old Cote. Who knows who is going to show up that night? I think I would hold off on this line unless your confident that Cote isn’t the same fighter.

Tom Lawlor (6-2-0-1NC)
= (-600)

I have been impressed every-time I have watched Tom Lawlor.

I think that Tom Lawlor should definitely be the favorite considering the circumstances that Doerksen is a replacement fighter.

I don’t think that he is a 6:1 favorite and I don’t think this line is bettable nor will it reach the point of bettability. I am going to hold off betting this fight as I know there are better lines out there.

Joe Doerksen (44-12-0) = (+400)

I have to admit, while I think that Doerksen is going to lose this fight, the betting line seem intriguing even with him being a replacement.

Doerksen is a crafty veteran and I don’t think that can be stressed enough with the current situation.

His submission game is one to be feared, and I think that a little bet on Doerksen wouldn’t be a crime as the odds warrant it.

Marcus Davis (16-6-0)
= (-600)

While I think that Marcus Davis should be the favorite, I don’t think it should be this large as this is MMA and anything could happen.

If this were a world-class fighter than the odds would warrant -600, but while Davis is top-tier he doesn’t come close to the 6:1 favorite bettors have anointed him.

I am going to hold off betting on this line as it is way too risky.

Jonathan Goulet (22-10-0-1NC) = (+400) Normally one bad line means another should look better. That is not the case here as Goulet hasn’t fought since 2008. The last time he fought was the GSP/Serra rematch. That is a really long time between fights, and opens up too many unanswered questions to make this line bettable.

Yoshiyuki Yoshida (11-4-0) = (-300)

While I have Yoshida winning this fight, I had the two fighters being close in talent.

The odds certainly don’t reflect and even match-up, I don’t think this is a good line and won’t make it to where it is a good one to bet.

I think we should look at other fights that have more to offer.

Michael Guymon (11-3-1) = (+220)

Michael Guymon line while not interesting now certainly could reach the point of being a viable bet.

I think if the odds floated any higher than +250, it would be an attractive bet. If the line went any higher than that I would have to bet it.

This is another line you should keep your eye on.

Joey Beltran (11-3-0) =

Joey Beltran has really hard hands and loves to trade. The problem is that he is a small heavyweight and going against one of the largest fighters in Tim Hague.

While I think that Beltran is going to lose, his punchers chance could make a line like +250, be a viable option to bet.

As it currently stands I would hold off in hopes that it will go higher.

Tim Hague (10-3-0) = (-260)

Tim Hague coming at -260, isn’t the worst line that I have seen, but the fact that he is a replacement fighters raises doubts in my mind.

I think that line is too risky given his short notice for the fight. Only if the line would plummet to -180, would I consider making this bet.

I will hold off in hopes of finding a better bet.

Johny Hendricks (7-0-0) = ( -500)

Johnny Hendricks is coming in as a monster favorite at -500.

That line is insanely high in my opinion, as Hendricks isn’t that tested as a fighter.

Hendricks should certainly be the favorite with his superior wrestling and hard hands, but this high line has me thinking we could find better values on this card.

T.J. Grant (15-3-0) = ( +350)

T.J Grant coming at this line seems to be a good bet. I think that while he is most likely going to lose, the line of +350 makes this match-up really appealing.

I think I would bet this fight as Grant seems like a good value at that price. I take this bet in hopes of an upset.

Jason MacDonald (24-13-0)
= (-160)

I think that even fighting on short notice Jason MacDonald at -160 is close to a winning bet. I don’t think the line will get better, so if you were going to bet earliest would be better.

I think this is going to be a close fight, I think this is a good fight to hedge given all the information.

John Salter (4-1-0) = (+130)

Even though MacDonald line seems to be a good one, Salter seems to be a good bet also.

I think your best bet here is to hedge your bets if possible. I think you should shop around for the best lines and bet on them both.

Salter could win this fight using his superior wrestling and I think that hedging covers all bases.

Well, thats the end of the UFC 113 Gamblers Guide, tell me what you think! — And remember you can find more articles like this at The Beat Down Blog my website, its new but is getting better everyday.


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