In part one I am examining the blueline and goaltending currently on the Sharks roster. I hope to provide an analysis of the team's forwards once we find out whether they can re-sign Ryan Clowe.
The backbone of every team is its goaltending, and the Sharks are strong in this unit. Not only should Evgeni Nabokov have won the Vezina Trophy as the league's best goalie, leading the league in wins (46) and games played (77-tied with Martin Brodeur, who did win the trophy), but he was only .03 goals per game worse than Brodeur.
There are a handful of goalies I would take over Nabokov despite his career year. I believe that while Nabby deserved the award last year, Brodeur is probably still better than him if for no other reason than playoff experience. I also think that Miikka Kiprusoff is a more tested commodity, and there is no question Jean-Sebastien Giguere has the pedigree and consistent performance to surpass all his peers.
Roberto Luongo is probably better, but a less proven commodity, especially in the playoffs. The same can be said for Henrik Lundqvist. That leaves Nabby as unquestionably a top six goaltender, in the top 20% of the league's starters.
Brian Boucher saw limited action last season, playing mostly in the minors. Despite being the league's record holder for consecutive scoreless minutes in net, he struggled some a couple years back and was out of the NHL for about a year.
However, Boucher played very well in the time he did get, he is still fairly young, and he has playoff experience. This makes him a mixed result projection: could be very good, could be shaky; therefore, he must be considered average.
Moreover, the team has Thomas Greiss as an emergency #3 goalie if there's an injury. He has limited NHL experience and was considered good enough to back up Nabokov a good part of last year.
The #1 goalie needs to be the strongest, so overall this unit is outstanding. Perhaps only Anaheim has a better goaltending unit, since Jonas Hiller is at least as much a sure thing as Boucher and Giguere has an edge on Nabokov. Other teams either lack the outstanding #1 and/or have lesser back-ups.
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If net-minding is a team's backbone, the defensemen are its legs. If you have even a mediocre blueline in the West, you will be exposed as the Sharks have been the last couple years in the playoffs. All three teams they fell to had better defensemen on the whole.
So this year general manager Doug Wilson made bold moves to upgrade the unit. In the end, the team was minus two defensemen who played key roles: gritty leader Craig Rivet and young offensively skilled Matthew Carle. However, Carle could not crack the lineup on a consistent basis, and Rivet's lack of speed was getting exposed from time to time.
In their place, the unit now boasts four Stanley Cup rings. Stay-at-home defenseman Brad Lukowich has won two. His old defensemate Dan Boyle, who is among the best in the league at offensive and puck-handling skills that the team needs to play the new style favoured by coach Todd McLellan, has one. Rob Blake, still among the most dangerous power play defensemen in the game, also has one.
Meanwhile, the team was able to re-sign Christian Ehrhoff, who was key defending teams on the move last season, and is improving his physical play and puck-handling. McLellan will also be able to rely on marathon defender Marc-Edouard Vlassic, who is coming off a bit of a sophomore season let-down but still is reliable in his own end.
The unit also features two returning heavy hitters, Kyle McLaren and Douglas Murray. McLaren has struggled to stay healthy the last three years but is a solid seventh defenseman who should see some time with or without injury. Murray has improved greatly in terms of his positioning and even getting the puck out of the defensive end, and is an intimidating presence that keeps opposing forwards from skating boldly into the zone.
One thing the Sharks do not have is more depth. Currently, the next defenseman listed on the depth chart is Derek Joslin, a 21-year old fifth round pick in 2005. He is 6'1" and 210#, but has not played a single NHL game. With the team tight against its budget a key player yet to be signed, it is unlikely there will be any additions to this unit.
Thus, I project the pairings to be as follows:
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Boyle-Lukowich puts two players who know one another together with different skill sets, Lukowich can be counted on to be in positions and provide a physical presence while Boyle can be counted on to advance the puck and provide the secondary scoring when the opportunity presents itself. Luke will play on the penalty kill and Boyle the power play. This would be one of the top ten first pairs in the league.
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Blake-Vlassic puts the most experienced player with the least in this unit. Blake provides the offensive capabilities (especially on the power play) and the size to have to be accounted for. Vlassic provides the skating ability and endurance to keep the pair from getting caught flat-footed, and his steady play makes him seem more experienced than he is and a perfect choice for the penalty kill. This would be one of the top five or six second pairs in the league.
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Murray-Ehrhoff puts another hitter with another fast skater, and both have enough experience to be reliable in key situations including helping on the penalty kill. Ehrhoff will also likely see power play time, and that alone shows this would be one of the best third pairs in the league.
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As for the reserves, McLaren may be among the best defensemen not dressed, but obviously since it gets very shaky after that. Therefore, I would have to rate this level of the unit in the bottom half of the league. Fortunately, it is unlikely they will be called on much.
Overall, the Sharks are in the top five of the league in this unit as well. Obviously Anaheim and then Detroit have better bluelines. The Flames and the Rangers have comparable units. The Stars are in the same league, but I think a shade below.
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about 1 month ago
Great analysis, MJ
about 1 month ago
Very informative stuff, MJ.
I'm curious to know your thoughts on Greiss and Patzold. Do you think either can develop into an NHL starter, or at least an upper-echelon backup? Do you see it as a mistake leaving them in the AHL for another year, or is it better to get them lots of playing time instead of watching Nabokov play 65-70 games?
from about 1 month ago
Yeah, I think the team letting Patzold go means they don't think he's going to be a starter; at best, he and Greiss were guys I saw as competent backups. The best thing for any developing goalie to me is playing regularly, so I would rather see them in the AHL than sitting on the bench in the NHL. However, everyone needs NHL playing time to make play at that level.
from about 1 month ago
Should be interesting to see how Greiss turns out, anyway. Especially with the Sharks' track record of developing European goalies.
They didn't draft any Germans this year! What's up with that?
from about 1 month ago
Greiss backed up Kolzig in the Turin Olympics in 2006.
He had a rough couple starts when he had a chance, but he will most definitely become NHL caliber.
about 1 month ago
Whoops, I see that Patzold has signed with Vitjaz Podolsk... big loss or small fry?
about 1 month ago
Because McLaren isn't going to play, haven't the Sharks benn looking to trade him for something? I am surprised that they haven't done so yet considering they could probably get a decent return on him unless they are waiting for closer to the season or even the trade deadline.
from about 1 month ago
As Brian said below, he makes $2.5 mil to be a pedestrian defender. But then the Sharks are paying Ehrhoff 2.75 this year and he's not a lot better. At least he's a very good penalty killer who can hit, and he has no huge holes in his game, making him an ideal #6 or 7 defenseman. He's just being WAY overpaid for that, but who knows what'll happen if he actually manages to stay healthy.
about 1 month ago
Nobody wants McLaren, especially at his salary. I'm surprised DW didn't buy him out in order to at least salvage some meager cap space to get some for Clowe. Clowe has reneged on a gentlemens agreement with DW, which has obviously pissed off Dougie and he's clearly playing hardball with Clowe's annoying agent.
about 1 month ago
nice article MJ
about 1 month ago
Not a bad assessment but, overall, I'd rather have Nabby than Giguere - especially when the chips are down. And Brodeur just isn't as good as he used to be - of course, he used to have Scott Stevens skating in front of him.
I'd also rather have McLaren than Ehrhoff - he makes fewer mistakes. So I'd have Blake-Murray as the #2 pair and McLaren-Vlassic at #3. On the PP, I'd keep Marleau at the point (w/Blake) and pair Boyle with Vlassic as the other blue liners.
from about 1 month ago
I can understand your decision about Brodeur and actually would not trade Nabby for him even if both had only one year left for that reason. However, a more objective outside observer I believe would think he is actually safer to bet on because of his championship experience and his recent play has not fallen off. I do not understand what you mean by "when the chips are down" about Giguere, however. His playoff performances over the years exceed Nabby's--he even won a Conn Smythe. Remember Nabby hovered under a .900 save percentage until that last game against Dallas in last season's playoffs.
As for the defense, Ehrhoff also makes more plays than Mac. He's young, people, and was put in situations he was not suited for by Ron Wilson. He's gonna be fine...on the other hand, I would not have paid him $3mil/yr.
Finally, I also would put a fourth forward out there with each D-man on both PP units, but that's just how I roll.
about 1 month ago
It was a pleasure to read this great analysis! Thanks for writing!
about 1 month ago
Great read!
My biggest concern for Blake is his age.
Blake will turn 39 this season. Although he has never been questioned for his drive, desire, or enthusiasm you have to wonder if an aging Blake will become an injury hazard.
In what I would call the prime of Blake's career 94/95 - 96/97 he averaged only 30 games per season due to injury. In 94/95 - 95/96 Blake played only 30 games total!
Blake did however prove to be a strong addition to Colorado's already tough lineup averaging almost 50 points per season in just over 77 games per season.
Blake tallied only 65 points the last two seasons with the (albeit, struggling) Kings but I am left to wonder how playing in LA the past two seasons has (additionally) aged Blake?
If Blake can stay healthy and San Jose can provide a similar atmosphere to Colorado, he is good for what, 40 points? But where does this leave you if Blake has an extended stay on the injured reserve? Could this be something management is already planning for?
Rob Blake will be missed in LA and I sincerely wish him a great, likely final, season in San Jose.
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