Minnesota Twins: Previewing the Playoff Run, Part I, Team Splits

Let's take a quick look at some of the important splits of the Twins team as they come down the stretch this baseball season.

—At the All-Star break, the Twins are 53 and 42, a game-and-a-half behind the AL Central leading White Sox. They've scored 463 runs and allowed 448. Their Pythagorean Win/Loss record is 49-46. But when their record is adjusted by Baseball Prospectus, based on strength of schedule and the approximate statistical strength of the Twins', the team is 46-49.

The disparity between how the team is actually doing compared to how it theoretically should be doing, based on objective measurements of their stats, can be found in the fact that the Twins have hit .307 with an .830 OPS with runners in scoring position.  

—As a team, the Twins have hit .273 with a .743 OPS. The Twins have struggled against portsiders, hitting just .265 with a paltry .695 OPS. Matt Macri, who in his short stint with the Twins earlier this year hit .409 with a 1.000 OPS against lefties, is in AAA. 

—Platooning your team and creating a lineup using OPS are “free” ways to score more runs. I made a small adjustment to the descending OPS batting order. I put a high OBP guy in the No. 1 and No. 4 spots, and put a high-SLG guy into the No. 3 spot.

Here are my idealized lineups for the Twins.  

Against right-handed pitching:  

Joe Mauer, C 

Justin Morneau, 1B 

Craig Monroe, DH 

Nick Punto, (provisionally*) SS 

Brian Buscher, 3B 

Jason Kubel, LF 

Alexi Casilla, 2B 

Delmon Young, RF 

Denard Span, CF  

*I think Nick Punto's good numbers this year are a product of chance and small sample size. In fact, I wouldn't use Nick Punto regularly as a starter, and instead I would have Brendan Harris play SS hitting in the No. 8 spot  

Against lefties:  

Denard Span, DH* 

Matt Macri, 3B* 

Joe Mauer, C 

Adam Everett, SS* 

Justin Morneau, 1B 

Nick Punto, (ditto from above) SS 

Alexi Casilla, 2B 

Delmon Young, LF 

Michael Cuddyer, RF 

Carlos Gomez, CF 

Brendan Harris, 3B*  

*There are a lot of problems here. One, Matt Macri is in AAA. Instead of him hitting second, Brendan Harris would be used at SS in my lineup, and he'd be batting ninth. Adam Everett is also hurt, so Nick Punto is in at 3B or SS. Michael Cuddyer is also hurt, so Denard Span moves from the DH spot to RF. 

—My lineup method isn't perfect, but just looking at right/left platoon splits helps clarify making roster decisions. From what I see, dropping Lamb is a must, while Matt Macri needs to be recalled to the majors.

Denard Span should not be sent down once Cuddyer comes off the DL. The Twins might want to look at finding a right-handed power hitter to DH or play LF.  

—The Twins rank 12th in the A.L. in OPS against left-handed pitching. They rank fourth against right-handed pitching.  

—In June, the Twins were 10th in the A.L. in team OPS. In July, they were second.  

The Twins' pitching staff has allowed the second highest opposing OPS and total bases in the A.L. They have the fifth highest WHIP in the A.L. and rank 11th in strikeouts. They have also allowed the fourth highest number of runs.

Conversely, the Twins also rank fifth in A.L. in quality starts and have allowed fewer walks than any other team in the A.L.  

The result has the Twins ranking 10th in ERA and fifth in wins.  

—The team leader in ERA is Joe Nathan, who is the best pitcher in the bullpen. The leader among the Twins' starters is Scott Baker.  

—The highest ERA amongst the Twins' starters is Livan Hernandez. The highest ERA amongst the relievers is Boof Bonser, who was demoted to the bullpen after an unsuccessful start in the rotation.  

—Livan Hernandez leads the team in innings pitched (IP). Brian Bass leads all relievers in IP. Bass has the second worst ERA among all relievers.  

—Matt Tolbert, Carlos Gomez, Mike Lamb, Craig Monroe, Brian Bass, and Livan Hernandez all appear to be the weak links in the Twins' roster. Lamb, Hernandez, and Bass would be the guys I would cut to make room for better players.  

Based on the above numbers, I have come to the conclusion that the Twins are a flawed team, and they won't be able to maintain their current winning percentage without making some changes to their personnel.