Baseball Digest Daily is reporting that the Oakland Athletics have traded Joe Blanton to the Philadelphia Phillies for minor leaguers Adrian Cardenas, Matt Spencer, and Josh Outman.
This is a trade that I truly cannot understand from the Oakland Athletics' perspective. Not because of the haul they received, but, rather, because of the value of Blanton.
That is, Blanton is clearly having the worst season of his major-league career, which one would think would limit his current value. All that being said, let's look at this deal more closely to discover what both teams were acquiring and giving up.
Obviously, Joe Blanton is the most valuable current piece of this trade. The 27-year-old innings eater has an affordable contract, and he has been a fairly solid pitcher throughout his major-league career. That even includes this season, which has seen his strikeout total dip to the lowest level of his career.
However, despite a higher walk rate than 2007, Blanton still posts one of the lowest walk rates (6.4 percent per plate appearance) in the league, and is well above league average overall.
Blanton also brings durability to the table. He has pitched in 32 or more games in each of his three MLB seasons, and he is well on his way to a fourth straight. In today's game, that is a dying breed.
Even Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus rated Blanton as a "green", entering this season, all but assuring readers that Blanton would not miss a start in 2008.
The shift to the National League should not really help Blanton, as he moves to a team with a far inferior defense in a far less-favorable park. That is not to say we should expect a Barry Zito-like collapse, but I don't anticipate Blanton making a whole lot of noise in the National League.
Blanton will slide into the Phillies' rotation as the No. 2 starter, but will perform more like a No. 3 or No. 4. Phillies fans have to hope that the front office does not get some strange idea that this trade allows them to move Brett Myers to the bullpen, unless he struggles again.
The most intriguing player the Athletics received is second basemen/shortstop Adrian Cardenas. According to the Athletics' press release, Cardenas was "named the Phillies' No. 2 prospect by Baseball America prior to the 2008 season." Not yet 21-years old, Cardenas has put together a quality minor-league career in rising to No. 2 in a fairly weak Phillies prospect pool.
Entering the 2007 season, John Sickels rated Cardenas as a B-minus prospect, claiming that his "quick bat" could result in a quick climb through the minors.
Today's Must Reads
Apparently, the quick bat impressed Sickels some more, as Cardenas jumped up to a B-level prospect entering the 2008 season and, like Baseball America's rating, sat as the No. 2 prospect in the Phillies organization—only one of four to be rated higher then a C-plus.
Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein was slightly less optimistic, rating Cardenas as a three-star prospect, the third best in the Phillies' organization. Here is what Goldstein has to say about Cardenas:
The Good: Cardenas has good bat speed and outstanding hand-eye coordination, using his strong wrists to whip the bat through the hitting zone, leading to consistent hard contact with gap power to all fields. He has a good approach and solid pitch recognition, and gets high grades for his makeup. He shows decent speed once he gets underway.
The Bad: Drafted as a shortstop with the knowledge that he'd have to move, Cardenas continued to struggle with the glove on the right side of the infield in 2007, and need to improve his reads off the bat and his work around the bag. He's a little on the smallish side, and doesn't project for more than average power.
If someone gave this same description to me seven or eight years ago, I would have guessed they were talking about Marcus Giles. Two names appearing on Cardenas' similarity score, who remind me of Marcus Giles: Frank Catalanotto and Jose Vidro. I'd say if the A's get the prime years of any one of those three players, they will be pleased with this piece of the acquisition.
The second piece the Athletics acquired is 23-year-old lefty Josh Outman. Having been sent back to AA this season, Outman needs to refine his control, while further working on missing bats. Both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus rated Outman as the Phillies' fourth-best prospect entering the 2008 season. Kevin Goldstein had the following to say about Outman:
The Good: Outman has excellent velocity for a southpaw, sitting at 91-93 mph with his fastball, and touching 95. His secondary stuff is solid, as he gets decent two-plane break on his slurvy breaking ball and has a deceptive changeup. His unique delivery makes his pitches difficult to pick up out of his hand, and scouts like his competitive fire.
The Bad: Outman's mechanics come with good and bad. While the combination of his arm angle and release point make it difficult to throw anything straight, he also has problems throwing strikes with any consistency. He tends to work high in the strike zone, and AA hitters made him pay the price.
Like all Phillies prospects, there isn't a whole lot to love right now. With Outman's future likely as a reliever, working high in the strike zone is not something that will result in a lasting career. At least not in high-pressure situations.
Being slightly more optimistic, John Sickels rates Outman as the Phillies' third-best prospect for the 2008 season. In doing so, raising Outman's rating from a B-minus in 2007 to an even B in 2008, the same level as highly-touted prospect (and fellow Reading teammate) Carlos Carrasco.
All that being said, there isn't a whole lot to currently get excited about with Outman. He's young, he's a lefty, and can throw relatively hard. So, maybe Will Ohman?
Lastly, they picked up left-handed outfielder Matt Spencer (no relation to Kevin Spencer). The 22-year old has been moved to High-A Clearwater in the Phillies' organization, despite not really having the statistics to back it up.
John Sickels rated Spencer as a C-plus prospect entering this season, which makes it difficult to grasp what kind of value he holds. That is, the Phillies' system is weak. Could some of the grades be overly generous in a, "They couldn't possibly be that bad" sort of way?
Well, they are. I managed to dig up Baseball America's rating for Spencer. He is sitting nicely at No. 28. As the 113th pick of the draft, it is somewhat telling of the Phillies' current scouting department that Spencer could only climb into the top 30 on this list. Even though, according to Baseball Prospectus, Spencer was one of the 11 best value picks in the 2007 draft.
Dealing Blanton all but closes the book on Billy Beane's infamous 2002 Moneyball draft. The Phillies did well in not giving away any assets that have any immediate potential within the organization.
However, when a team does such, they also traditionally do not acquire a true game-changing talent in return. My initial reaction is to state that the Phils won this deal in a landslide. Even upon further inspection, it's tough to see what the A's are doing.
Combine this with the Rich Harden deal of two weeks ago, and it appears Billy Beane and the Athletics are more concerned with quantity then quality. Of course, we have all learned to never close the book on a Billy Beane move. No one can be certain what else is in the works, or what lies ahead for the players Beane has moved.
Sometime, however, Billy's "stuff" (edited) just doesn't stick.
comments (32) write a comment »
write a new comment
about 1 month ago
Good article.
I think Beane's collecting "stuff" in quantity, throwing it against the wall and seeing what sticks. Some people have argued that that's what Tampa's done and look how its worked out for them this year.
As it is, I think Beane's going to be more active this winter with the glut of prospects he's traded for than he will be the rest of this year. Beane's cashing in 2008 and every win over .500 the A's finish with will be gravy.
I can't say I'm the least bit surprised by this trade and would have a stronger reaction against it if Gallagher and Murton weren't as impressive against the Angels as they were last week. I'm not done chucking bombs at Billy Beane, but for now I've got to keep my powder dry.
from about 1 month ago
Hey Greg,
Thanks for reading and commenting!
I'm not sure Tampa has been throwing stuff on the wall in the same sense. They have been stock piling prospects, but not through trades. And Tampa seems fine to allow prospects without a future within the organization to leave town.
That being said, I have a funny feeling Beane and the Oakland brass are looking to stockpile high draft picks whom they hope will be ready (or at least close enough to warrant excitement) in time for their new ballpark.
Picture this...The A's draft a Longoria type in 2009 and a Price type in 2010. The new park opens in 2011, when Inoa is 18 going on 19. Revenues from having a new ballpark will be enough to keep the A's afloat in 2011, but for 2012, the plan is to utilize the hyped young prospects. Complimenting them with an assortment of what will THEN be 'veteran' prospects.
It's an exciting time in Oakland.
from about 1 month ago
I think the biggest deal is Beane trading for prospects period.
about 1 month ago
I guess Toronto wanted too much for Burnett. I assume this is it for the Phils at the deadline, since they have little to let go of in the system. Blanton should do fine with the Phillies, as the National League hasnt seen his stuff.
from about 1 month ago
I think Toronto believes there aren't out of contention. I also think that they believe Burnett will stick around for 2009 and keep this rotation as one of the bigs' best.
about 1 month ago
I really could not disagree with this article more. It is very well written but your opinion in the end could not be more wrong. You think that trading the "#2" prospect in your organization for an innings eater is worth it?
The Phillies need an overhaul of their rotation. You said it yourself, Blanton will fill the #2 spot in the rotation but pitch like a #3 or #4. Innings eaters are never worth top prospects.
If you wanted to make an argument that this deal swings the Phillies way for the 2008 season you might have an argument, although I still don't think Blanton is worth it. Teams like the Mets, Marlins and Braves are going to feast on this guys mediocre pitches.
The Phillies needed a lot more than they got in Blanton and traded away at least one really top notch prospect, the A's clearly won this deal, doing what they do best; breeding pitchers to be traded.
from about 1 month ago
From what I've read, the fact that Cardenas was their #2 prospect is more of a reflection of how bad the Phils' farm system is than how good Cardenas is. The consensus on Cardenas seems to be "average offense, average glove, good speed". Not to mention, last I checked second base was pretty well handled for the foreseeable future.
from about 1 month ago
Harris,
Aaron expresses what I was trying to state in that Cardenas will top out as a Marcus Giles type-at least that is his current projection, IMO. While not terrible, Cardenas is only a top prospect because of the organization he belongs too. He's probably around 120-160 in terms of prospects across all of baseball. Hardly terrible, but not worth a whole lot in the long run.
from about 1 month ago
Cardenas was reranked by Baseball America as just outside the top 25. He was also going to probably move to a corner outfielder spot because of Utley, so his road to the majors wasn't blocked.
about 1 month ago
As a Phillies fan, when I saw the names go off the bottomline; frankly I was mad.
I've been able to see Cardenas play numerous times and the kid's going to be a player. He's going to hit for average, and he continues to develop through the FSL. Lou Marson may be the best positional prospect in the organization but Cardenas is literally right behind him. However, I think Oakland has plenty of infield prospects; don't they? Cardenas may actually be future trade bait.
Outman was converted into the pen this year with the hopes of him being put on the "fast track" to the Bigs. Besides Romero, the Phillies have struggled to find a lefty specialist. RJ Swindle wasn't the answer.
He had a funky delivery coming out of college and seems to be still adapting to a traditional one. I think that he's still a starter seeing him in Reading and he'll be back in a rotation soon.
Spencer is just filler. Good college bat.
The Phillies like getting below slot talent traditionally. Except for this year's draft, it's usually 4-year college players that get drafted.
from about 1 month ago
Hey Joe,
Thanks for a more personal reflection.
Cardenas is so young that no one is willing to close the book on him just yet, but no one is going to mistake him for a Phillips, Utley, Cano, etc in the making. He will presumably be an outstanding utility infielder, or an average starting second basemen.
I do agree that this was for future considerations though.
from about 1 month ago
Eh I really don't think he's an Utley, Cano, Phillips, etc.
But he's a starter in the making. I'd say a Freddy Sanchez with an occasional HR.
from about 1 month ago
Joe,
That's fair. I tabbed him as a slightly better Freddy Sanchez as a Marcus Giles. While that is superior to league average, the trade market on that type of player is fairly low, as is the free agent market.
about 1 month ago
I don't know how the phillies win this deal over the A's. It wasnt looking like blanton's trade value would improve much in the second half of the season, and even then Beane didn't want to risk it. If Blanton's trade value was the same in the upcoming offseason as it was now, Beane wouldn't be able to get the value he did from the Phillies because they wouldnt be making a push for the postseason. Beane knew the Phillies were desparate for a durable starting pitcher who would eat innings (opposite of Eaton) so he exploited it. I've got a feeling that players like Spencer and Outman are gonna be of the Moneyball variety and surprise us sooner or later.
from about 1 month ago
So Blanton goes out and reverts his numbers back to career averages and his value doesn't go up? A team like the Yankees suffers an injury to one of their starters and they aren't more aggressively pursuing a guy like Blanton?
There was risk involved in holding onto Blanton, yes, but his value is essentially as low as it has ever been. Unless there is an injury that Blanton and the A's are hiding, giving up 3 fringe prospects for a starter a club will have under its control at an affordable price for 2 years is an excellent swap.
Compare Blanton to the pitchers on the free agent market. Dollars and talent-think Carlos Silva.
about 1 month ago
great article. I think he will help a bit, but not enough. They still need another great pitcher in their rotation if they hope the make it to the world series
from about 1 month ago
Alan,
Thanks for reading.
The NL is definitely getting fairly exciting.
about 1 month ago
Good article, good analysis.
from about 1 month ago
Matt,
Thanks for reading.
about 1 month ago
I don't think this move is solely on Billy Beane's shoulders. I think that owner Lou Wolff may have pressured this move so that he wouldn't have to pay Blanton more money to stay in Oakland.
Wolff is notorious for being a cheap owner, and I don't even think he cares about his baseball team. Blanton does have a lot of upside for the Phils, and Oakland basically gave him away. Blanton would have gone for much more had he been traded to a team with a much stronger farm system.
I think this and the trade of Rich Harden (and the non-signing of Danny Haren) spell the beginning of the great Oakland firesale. Mark Ellis has been a consistent offensive performer for the A's, and there could be a team out there who could use his bat in the lineup.
from about 1 month ago
Jonathon,
I don't think any A's moves are directly on the shoulders of a GM. In fact, I don't think any major league moves are ever directly on the shouldres of any one GM. Not only do they have scouts and various other directors, but they have many other front office executives to answer to. Whether it be marketing, financial, etc.
That being said, it is fairly safe to assume that the worst case scenario was that Beane was told to 'get rid of Blanton'. Beane did so.
I commented on this to someone else, but I think the Athletics (who may not be named the Athletics when they move to Freemont), are essentially starting over. Inoa will be the face of the franchise and they are looking to build a strong farm system for 2011 and beyond.
about 1 month ago
Beane can't just rely on luck that Blanton might have a resurgent second half of the season and have better trade value in the offseason. Taking the 'what ifs' out of the equasion, the trade deadline makes Blanton's value as high as it's going to get. Plus, Blanton only has a few starts before the deadline, so his value isnt going to go up by much. Beane is playing off the Phillie's desparation, so you know that there must be more than meets the eye to this trade besides Cardenas. Like you said, Blanton is cheap and under team control, so Beane can be patient and find a deal he likes. Maybe he sees something we dont.
from about 1 month ago
Ben,
"Luck"?
It would be 'unlucky' for Blanton to continue at this horrendous rate. Consider that his FIP is the second lowest of his major league career. This shows me that he isn't actually having the worst season of his career, although there are some red flags-which leads me to believe Oakland is seeing something we aren't.
All that being said, its tough to believe this is as much as there is out there for Blanton considering the money teams spend on FA pitchers such as Carlos Silva.
from about 1 month ago
They won't be sucessful as long as a guy like Wolff is owner. Trust me, we've delt with guys like Wolff here in KC with David Glass. He was so concerned with turning a profit that he didn't hire the right scouts and had a terrible GM in Allard Baird. The results were terrible drafts, terrible farm system, and a terrible Major League team. Glass was also involved with almost every move the Royals made over the years. That being said, Allard Baird was still the worst GM in MLB history. He made draft picks that were obviously bad picks. Players were picked for signability.
Nowadays, Glass has loosened the reigns for GM Dayton Moore. The results have been a positive outlook and rising young team with loads of talent. Glass' loose checkbook have helped the team out quite a bit.
By the time the A's move to Fremont, they may have a decent squad. But if they're going into rebuilding as recent moves suggest, then we may have to wait a while for the A's to be a major contender again.
about 1 month ago
Yea I'm not sure this was the move the Phillies needed/wanted considering both the Cubs and the Brewers picked up an ace and the Phils just picked up an innings eater. This guy will receive some run support with the Phils which he didn't receive with the A's but he is just that, a #2 or #3. This is not the move that will get the Phils over the hump in the playoffs.
MLB Baseball Handicappers
about 1 month ago
Sometimes that player that flies under the radar just needs a change of scenery to get things going again. If he is can eat up innings and keep balls in the yard, I can live with that. He seems healthy, I'm just praying that he gets the run support.
I can't argue with the deal.
about 1 month ago
i meant Beane would be lucky if he had kept blanton and he pitched like we know he can in the second half, bringing up his trade value for the offseason. But if blanton continues like he is right now, his trade value will decrease even more in the offseason and bring even less of a return because the season would be over and the phillies wouldnt be as rushed to get pitching.
What im trying to say is that its better to trade a struggling player at the deadline because teams desparate for a pitcher will be less picky than they would be in the offseason
about 1 month ago
I think the trade helps the Phillies bullpen the most. While their bullpen is one of the best in the league, it is chronically overused. I fear (hopefully) that this bunch will collapse much like the Mets bullpen did last season. So in that respect Blanton will be helpful.
But he doesn't have "great" stuff. He's an innings eater yes, but don't expect this guy to be the savior.
I wasn't really familiar with the Phils farm system before this trade, other than the fact that it is not very good. After I realized that these 3 guys were among the best in their system, it seems like the Phils overpaid.
from about 1 month ago
I'd have to go check the stats again, but as of a week or two ago, the Phillies starting pitchers had thrown the most innings of any team in the National League. I don't know if that's changed since then, but the Phillies need for an "innings eater" was really that important.
I agree with you that the Phillies over paid. Cardenas and Outman were two of the best the Phillies have.
about 1 month ago
In a couple years you will all be praising Billy Beane for this trade..As a Phillies fan i was frustrated to see them give up Outman..I knew Cardenas was gonna be going because he is blocked by Utley and he doesnt have the arm for 3rd where the Phils need help badly...Spencer was just drafted last year but hasnt put up good numbers but knowing the A's organization they could turn him into a decent player...Outman was the toughest to let go as I said cuz he would have been up here either next year or the year after with the way he pitches and would have been great bullpen help and he is a lefty something the Phillies need in their bullpen...only way this becomes a good trade is if Blanton turns his season around and helps the Phils get in the playoffs and to the World Series otherwise the Phils may be looking at this trade and asking themselves wat they did wrong
about 1 month ago
I can't complain much with this trade. Cardenas is a nice prospect, but he's obviously blocked by Utley, and probably not quite good enough to convert to another position. Blanton can be a quality innings eater, which is exactly what Eaton is not. Adding him to a rotation of similar-minded, tough pitchers--Moyer, Kendrick and Hamels, who all hold the opposition from scoring a lot--makes sense with an offense that should get six runs a game just for showing up. Plus, Blanton is young and won't be a free agent after this year. Great article.
about 1 month ago
hey ya'll keep your eyes on matt spencer!! He is a hell of a ball player and is sure to make the A's proud and the Phillies will be kicking their selves in the ass!
write a new comment