Here are the baseball stories that you won’t find on the sports-media headlines because...well, probably because Ted Thompson, Brett Favre, and Aaron Rodgers aren’t involved.
The A’s Can Catch the Angels
Many people point to the Harden trade as a signal that Billy Beane has thrown in the towel for the 2008 season.
I see it differently. So should you.
Beane astutely understood that Rich Harden’s market value had reached its peak after a blistering first half. Over 13 starts, he had a 2.34 ERA and struck out 92 batters in 77 innings. For comparison, Harden had made 13 starts combined, during the 2006 and 2007 seasons.
Injuries were the only thing holding Harden from becoming a top-10 starter in baseball. The A’s brass must have been anticipating this moment to deal for years.
Much like he unloaded Mark Mulder for Danny Haren, Kiko Calero, and Daric Barton in the winter of 2004, Billy Beane received a package of prospects for the long haul. Consider Sean Gallagher the Danny Haren of this bundle.
Just 22-years old, Gallagher sports an impressive 4.25 ERA in his debut season. Looking back at Danny Haren’s first season in the majors, we see that he had a 5.08 ERA in 72-2/3 innings when he was just 22-years old. We all know how he turned out.
Another piece of the Harden trade, Matt Murton, has already proved he can hit in the bigs, despite falling out of the Cubs' good graces. Murton’s career .810 OPS should serve well in left field, and he will push Jack Cust to the designated-hitter role, where he belongs.
It will be a tough road to the playoffs, as he A’s find themselves six games back behind the Angels and 6.5 games back in the Wild Card.
However, the A’s have a lot to be excited about.
The A’s have allowed the fewest runs in the majors and 31 fewer than the next best team. So if they had a surplus of anything, it was quality pitching. Their huge run differential (+65) and their Pythagorean W-L record indicate that the A’s should be four games better rather than 51-44.
The Angels, on the other hand, have played way over their heads, with a Pythagorean W-L of 50-45 and have a run differential of just +21.
Chalk it up to a spell of unluckiness that the A’s aren’t ahead of the Angels right now. Don’t be surprised if they switch spots in the near future. I know Billy won’t be.
Not a Dominant Team in Baseball
If you listened to New York sports radio for a few minutes these days, you’d probably think that the Mets are on pace to win 115 games and the Yankees were destined to be delegated to the Independent League.
- B/R Ticket Guide
Not so. In fact, the Mets are merely one game ahead of the Yankees and faring no better than the Brewers or the A’s.
There’s no parity in baseball you say?
The Yankees have the same record as the Marlins, who have spent less on their roster than the Yankees have on Giambi this year. The second highest payroll belongs to the Mets, and they have a worse record than the second lowest spending team, the Tampa Bay Rays.
No team in baseball is projected to win 100 games this year, and the NL West’s division leader isn’t above .500. Not only that, in five out of the six divisions, the lead is less than two games.
The tight competition should make teams yearn for four Wild Card spots in October. And as we all know, there’s only ONE OCTOBER!
Derek Jeter Is Having His Worst Season
Hank Steinbrenner’s mouth has started several controversies this year, but let me mention something he probably refuses to admit: Jeter has been mediocre this season.
Why hasn't anyone brought up the fact that a player who is making $21.6 million this year has a worse OPS than Ryan Theriot?
Derek Jeter is batting .284 /.345/.395 (or a .740 OPS) while the league average is .745. He’s never batted below .290 in a season.
It’s his worst hitting first-half performance since he sported a .730 OPS in the first half of the 1996 season, his first full season in the majors. To make matters worse, fellow New York shortstop Jose Reyes is posting better numbers across the board than “Jetes”.
Don’t think Jeter’s contributions can be measured solely by his bat? Well, Eric Hinske’s six stolen bases thwarts Derek Jeter’s total. Yes, Eric Hinske.
For all the troubles the third-place Yankees have had this season, you’d think that Jeter’s ineptitude would be talked about more often.
Jeter’s Not Alone
A.L. shortstops have been absolutely terrible this year. Sure, Miguel Tejada, Nomar Garciaparra, and Alex Rodriguez are no longer star shortstops in the American League, but their replacements are pathetic.
Consider these factoids.
All-Star Michael Young is the only A.L. regular shortstop with a batting average higher than .285. The five regular shortstops in the AL East have a combined 13 HRs or the same as J.J. Hardy of the Milwaukee Brewers. Freddie Bynum and Tony Pena Jr. have amassed 293 at-bats this season.
I still cannot wrap my head around the fact that teams continue to allow Freddie Bynum and Tony Pena Jr. to step into the batters box. I’m serious. I’ve thought about this for a long time.
A.L. Shortstops Are Not Alone
The American League may have snagged their 12th straight All-Star Game victory, but they should feel very lucky.
American League hitting, as a whole, hasn’t been this bad in about 15 years. Runs, hits, and home-run rates are all much lower than they have been. A.L. teams haven’t hit this badly (9.1 hits per game) since 1992 when they compiled a paltry 8.9 H/G. They also haven’t had this low of a home-run rate (0.96) since 1993, when A.L. teams hit 0.92 home runs a game.
Is better pitching to blame?
New Era of Elite Starting Pitchers
Even though the All-Star Game is not the best measuring stick for the best players in the game, it does serve as a barometer of whom the fans, coaches, and players feel deserves a spot.
This All-Star Game may be the sign of younger things to come. For the first time, the names John Smoltz, Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, and Curt Schilling were not on the roll for the All-Star Game—ironic, given the Hall of Fame ceremony before the game.
Just to illustrate how young the starters elected to the All-Star Game are, none of the top-20 active wins leaders were in this All-Star Game, and only Roy Halladay and Carlos Zambrano are listed in the top 50.
The Infamous Omar Minaya Trade
Just before the All-Star break in 2002, the Montreal Expos found themselves in the middle of the NL Wild-Card race. Knowing that it may be the last time they might have the chance to make the playoffs, then-GM Omar Minaya executed a steal of a trade with the Cleveland Indians.
Minaya sent a few minor-league prospects along with Lee Stevens for one of the game's top pitchers, Bartolo Colon.
And by steal, I mean for Indians GM Mark Shapiro. The Expos finished a game out of the Wild Card that year. Oh, and those prospects were Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee and Brandon Phillips.
The Upton Brothers Are Actually Identical Twins
You might not find this as cool as I do, but here you go anyway. B.J. Upton’s OPS is .787. His younger brother Justin has a .786 OPS. Maybe Justin hasn’t developed his old-man strength yet?
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4 months ago
1 & 2: Now Blanton's gone ... Angels dominate ALW and clinch with killer rotation.
3: Jeter is only a bit off his career numbers because A-Rod sat for a month ... but hell, he's 12 years past '96.
4: Keep thinking. Infield position performances ebb and flow over a decade. 2nd base is the hot spot now, next decade it'll be shortstop again. A lot depends on High School coaches.
5: The AL had more steroid users and Viagra ain't making up for the loss. Pitching hasn't gotten better, it's gotten back to normal.
6: 20 years ago none of the pitchers named were All Stars. Amazing how things change eh?
7: Minaya is a second rate GM, always has been, but the Indians haven't done anything with thier "steal" either ... so it's a wash so far.
8: Never heard of the Uptons or OPS, I'll have to "look it up".
from 4 months ago
I am unsure how you have never heard of wither Upton brother. They were both full of hype.
from 4 months ago
You've never heard of B.J. or Justin Upton? Justin Upton was almost as big as Joba Chamberlain came up... Not to mention is 455 ft. homerun
from 4 months ago
Joba who?
4 months ago
LJ
1&2- Joe Blanton has a 4.96 ERA and is 5-12. I hate to point to win-loss records because its a poor measure of true performance, but since you've never heard of OPS I will have stoop to your level of misleading traditional statistics. FYI, Oakland's rotation has a better ERA than the Angels even with Blanton's horrid season.
You may say, "Hey idiot, Rich Harden left!"
Well, to that I say Justin Duchscherer has an ERA half that of Jered Weaver and Jon Garland. Who fills Harden's spot? Gallagher, the 22-year old rook they got from the Cubs. He only let 5 runners on base and struck out 7 in his 7 inning debut for the A's. You may need to check your premises about who has the better rotation, much less that the Angels will dominate.
3- I think it's funny that you defend Jeter by pointing to ARod. That's a laughable rebuttal. "I got a C on my test because the guy behind me was absent from class!" The only stat that ARod brings to Jeter is runs. That's not a stat about Derek Jeter. That's a stat about the people behind Jeter. I don't care about runs or ARod when it comes to Jeter. He's had his best years without ARod.
That's beside the point. Only a bit off, you say? He's hitting 31 points below his career average. That's not "a bit off." He's not getting on base nearly as much as has in his career (.395 vs .459). At this rate he won't even hit 10 home runs in the full season when he's hit 10 home runs five times in his career BEFORE the All Star Break. All I'm saying is, if Arod were hitting 30+ points off his career numbers, you'd know about it. (And Arod's never done that in a Yankee uniform).
4. I don't understand your point. Are you saying that I'm wrong that the AL shortstops are terrible this year? I don't know how you can possibly believe that. Not one word of my post did I mention second basemen. Besides, the NL shortstops (Hanley, Reyes, Rollins, Tejada) are doing just fine. This isn't about "ebb and flow." This is about how bad AL Shortstops are.
5. What??? That has to be one of the most unfound claims I've heard in a while. Find me something that proves that the AL juiced more than the NL as if players don't switch around the leagues and that the AL is this exclusive drug ring league. I mean, just off the top of my head, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mark McGwire, and Sammy Sosa all hit their older primes with National League teams. Not that they have tested positive or anything...
6. I don't know what this means. I think you're proving my point that it's a new era? I think?
7. And by "haven't done anything" do you mean... what exactly? The Indians went to the ALCS last year with Lee and Sizemore. In 2005, they won 93 games with the 22-year old Sizemore leading off for them and Lee posted a 18-5 record with a 3.79 ERA.
The Nationals/Expos haven't finished higher than 4th in the NL East since the trade. Bartolo Colon pitched 17 games for them in 2002 and then traded him for El Duque, Jeff Leifer, and Rocky Biddle, . End of story.
8. Why did I type all that above when you discredit yourself like this?
This is how well-known these guys are:
http://www.reduxpictures.com/blog/wp-content/2008/03/mueller-espn2-copy.jpg
4 months ago
My only note on this fantastic read is that Ryan Theriot shouldn't be considered a joke of a comparison. He could have made the all-star team in almost any year prior to Hanley. Point is he deserves to be in that group you just mentioned in your rebuttal.
All in all though, a great article.
from 4 months ago
Tony, thanks for the compliments. While I like what Theriot's doing this year, I need to see more from him to include him in that group. I mean, he's hit 7 home runs in 297 career games. Good average this year and that's about it. He's not really making up for his lack of power in the field either. I consider him a very serviceable shortstop but not elite. The reason I included him was because a lesser known player who doesn't really have a star career.
4 months ago
I'll admit that Theriot doesn't have power numbers, but he's leading the NL starting shortstops in OBP and batting average and he also has less errors than Ramirez and Reyes. I'm not sure what more you want from the kid, lol.
Oh, and just so you know that I'm not just some idiot like the other guy, I drafted Justin Upton haha.
4 months ago
Haha. No, I'd never group you two together. Thanks for the comments.
4 months ago
As an avid Orioles fan I can tell you, we are no more happy with Bynum than you are. We've been through five different starting shortstops this year and none has been any better than the next. We've been trying to get other guys into the batters box besides him, but no one in the O's organization seems capable of playing shortstop. No one. And good article, I think these will be very interesting points to follow for the rest of the season
from 4 months ago
That makes me feel better. Are you guys actively looking to trade for a replacement? I know Jack Wilson's available but I'm not sure he's much more than a stopgap. May I suggest trading Brian Roberts for some middle infield prospects?
4 months ago
Haha I've been hearing about how we should trade Roberts ever since Tejada left. I'd love to keep him around, but unless Andy McPhail can find some other means of accquiring a shortstop, trading him might be our only option. I am not sure how aggresively they are pursuing a trade, especially since they didnt expect to even be this close in the AL East race at this point, but I cannot imagine them not addressing this problem in the offseason. It's just too glaring a hole in the lineup, especially in the always competitive AL East. Now if they played in the NL West...
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