Kansas Jayhawks Football: Is the Honeymoon Over?

Mark Mangino's contract has just been extended to 2012 with a nice raise, making him (most likely) the third highest-paid coach in the Big 12 behind Bob Stoops and Mack Brown.

Was it a good deal?  On paper, it looks that way.  The Jayhawks went 12-1 last year, losing only to No. 3 Missouri.

But if you dig a little deeper, it looks like the Jayhawks' record was a product of the system—the system of cupcake scheduling.

Last year, the Jayhawks played Central Michigan, SE Louisiana, Toledo, and Florida International for their non-conference games.  None of these teams put up much of a fight, losing collectively 214-23 to Kansas.

Having seven home games (plus one neutral site game) didn't hurt the Jayhawks either.

They squeaked by No. 24 Kansas State 30-24 before taking on "powerhouse" Baylor and spanking them into submission, 58-10.

Kansas then beat a plethora of unranked teams: Colorado 19-14, Texas A&M 19-11, Nebraska 76-39, Oklahoma State 43-28, and Iowa State 45-7.

Then along came Mizzou—and out went that perfect record.

You can look at this two different ways.

An 11-1 regular season record is nothing to sneeze at, since it is so difficult to go an entire season undefeated.

On the other hand, when the only top 20 team you played in the regular season beats you, it does take a little lustre off the polish, doesn't it?

Hawai'i was undefeated last year, but once they faced a "legit" team, they got spanked in the Sugar Bowl by Georgia.  Can we not say that Kansas is another one of those teams?

Not really, when you consider that the Jayhawks did beat Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl.  Convincingly.

So has the honeymoon just started, or is it already over?

The Jayhawks do return most of their starters, but they have to replace two solid receivers (Marcus Henry and Derrick Fine) and leading rusher Brandon McAnderson.  They also lost DB Aqib Talib, a true superstar, so there is some level of concern in the secondary.

But the real wrench in this whole equation is their schedule.

This year's schedule is a bit more daunting.  Make that a lot more daunting.

While they do get three cupcakes in Florida International, Louisiana Tech, and Sam Houston State—all at home—they have to travel to some humid weather and play at South Florida.

It is here where the walls will come crumbling down.  Mark this a loss.

In the last four years, Kansas has only once won their first road game of the season.  They lost to Northwestern, Texas Tech, and Toledo before beating a mediocre Kansas State team by six points last year.

No such luck again this year.

South Florida has a stifling defense, and a much-improved Mike Ford in the backfield should help keep the pressure off Matt Grothe.

Their conference opener is at Iowa State, and that looks like a guaranteed win.  They then host Colorado, which is a trap game—Oklahoma looms the following week.

Colorado may give them a big fight, and while I'm not calling for a Jayhawks loss, it's going to be a close game like last year's 19-14 win.  Colorado will be improved this year, and after beating Oklahoma last year, they have some confidence.

The next six games are just brutal.  The Jayhawks travel to Oklahoma (loss), host Texas Tech (too close to call), host Kansas State (win), visit Nebraska (possible upset but probable win), host Texas (loss), and then get a bye before playing at a neutral site against Mizzou (loss).

There could easily be four or five losses in that stretch, and it looks like three for sure: Oklahoma, Texas, and Mizzou.

Throw in the non-conference loss against South Florida, and you have a four-loss season—and no BCS games in sight.

While the Jayhawks do get seven home games again (plus Mizzou at Kansas City), this year it's Norman, not Stillwater, and Lincoln, not Manhattan, on their road trips.  That's a big difference.

And the Blackshirts of Nebraska might seem a little hell-bent on revenge after that 76-39 thrashing they got last year.

The cards are on the table: If Kansas wants to prove they were not a fluke last year, they have to beat two of the big three teams of the Big 12.

Texas, Oklahoma, and Mizzou are waiting.  Can Mangino pull another rabbit out of his hat?

Or was last year just smoke and mirrors?