College Football: Why Big Ten Expansion Could Fail

While Big East fans tremble, SEC fans brace themselves, and the rest of college football waits to see what the Big Ten will do, there are no guarantees that their proposed expansion will succeed.

Even though a Chicago research firm's report indicated that expansion will be profitable, they can't guarantee anything.

Why the "Crown Jewel" Will Make Big Ten Expansion Work

Getting Notre Dame to join the Big Ten as the 12th team is what Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany, and every Big Ten athletic director, wants for Christmas. If Notre Dame accepted an invitation this whole guessing-game would come to an abrupt end, and everyone could stop worrying about the big domino falling.

If Notre Dame joined, the Big Ten would be able to play in a conference championship game. More than this, they'f feel their mission was complete.

However, this scenario is very unlikely to take place. Although Notre Dame's basketball coach Mike Brey told the Chicago Tribune in 2003 that athletic director Kevin White told him Notre Dame had just joined the Big Ten, the Irish backed out at the last minute. 

And if you believe what current Notre Dame AD Jack Swarbrick said as recently as last month, it doesn't appear as though the Irish have any intentions to ever come that close again.

Will Splitting the Pie in More Than 11 Slices Work?

In order for expansion to be successful, it has to work financially. When Delany started selling the idea, Big Ten presidents and athletic directors didn't hold back their reservations about sharing revenues with extra members.

Some were so concerned about shared revenue, that they proposed any new member (other than Notre Dame, of course) be charged an entrance fee to join the conference.

Last year shared revenues, from television, bowl-game money, and the Big Ten Network, provided each member with $22 million. This figure was twice as large as what the SEC paid its members, and three times what Big East members received.

If the Big Ten adds three, or even five new teams, the conference has to generate a lot more revenue, and this could be difficult. It's highly probable Delany could feel it would be near impossible to sustain or exceed the present level of shared revenue.

Will the Big Ten Network Sell?

The Big Ten Network (BTN), Delany's experiment and pet project, is working—it's been the reason Big Ten teams receive so much more than any other conference.

The BTN, a joint venture with Fox Cable, is currently in 40 million households, and has the capability to reach 70 million.

If the Big Ten asks three or four Big East teams to join, they have to be fairly certain that folks in places like Hartford, Conn., or Newark, N.J., will be interested in the network.

Assuming that folks located in areas that have been forever entrenched in pro sports, will relate to and accept the BTN is a gamble. It may not go over well in other parts of the country.

Will a Big Ten Championship Game Be Successful?

One of the reasons the Big Ten has been exploring expansion has to do with a conference championship game. The NCAA mandates a conference needs to have 12 teams before they can stage their own championship game.

Penn State head coach Joe Paterno started the push, and other coaches joined the bandwagon. Paterno claimed the conference wasn't prepared for BCS bowl games, because their regular season ended too early.

Of course, that can easily be fixed by taking a bye week, in the middle of the season, but the financial aspect of a conference championship seems appealing.

Once again, Delany is presented with a gamble. Will a Big Ten Championship be a mega success like the SEC has found, or will it be a ratings disaster like the one held by the ACC? Oh, the ACC plays a football championship game!

How Would a Big Ten Championship Game Affect the OSU-Mich Game?

Ohio State-Michigan! The greatest rivalry in college football. One of the greatest rivalries in sports. What would happen to its relevance if the conference played a championship game one week later?

More specifically, what would happen to the rivalry if Ohio State played Michigan in a conference championship game one week after they played their regular season game?

This is a question that the Big Ten needs to consider.

Would Old Rivalries Be Discontinued?

What about other rivalries? Would they be discontinued with a new two division Big Ten? 

Though Michigan-Ohio State is "the rivalry" there are plenty of other inter- and intra- state rivalries that have lasted a long time. What will happen to these games?

Will the Conference Be Spreading Itself Too Thin?

When Big East hired gun/consultant and former NFL commissioner Paul Tagliabue made a point last week by claiming no one in Long Island would rush home from their tennis match to turn on the Rutgers-Minnesota game, he angered Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano but he made a legitimate point.

Every potential member from the Big East would be thrilled when they played Michigan and Ohio State, but would they care about the other games?

Basketball

Going to a 14- or 16-team basketball conference could be a stretch. It's worked for the Big East. Most of their schools are located close to each other and they've been playing  for a long time.

What would a match up like USF-Penn St, or Rutgers-Northwestern do for Big Ten basketball ratings?

Is Big Ten Expansion a Forgone Conclusion at This Time?

Delany has been called many things but one thing he has never been called is ignorant. Delany knows that expansion is not as easy as inviting your neighbor over for coffee and cake.

Delany has seen the conference grow to 11 teams (with the addition of Penn State), and he's seen the BTN take off—it's certainly enough to make his legacy as commissioner a good one.

Is he interested in taking the Big Ten to the level of a "super conference?"  Even if he's set on such a plan, he knows that it may not be the way to go at this time. 

Right now, the Big Ten has a couple of options in relation of possible expansion: They can hope for Notre Dame's participation, add a different 12th team, add three or five more teams, or they can decide to stay right where they are.

Whatever Delany and the Big Ten decides, the rest of the college football world is hoping a decision is made as soon as possible.