Fantasy Football: The Rookie Rundown

Ah, rookies. It’s the classic case of hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. Every year we see one or two players that truly break out and become stars right out of the gate. It has become a matter of which ones.

Some of the best advice here is not to go out and look for it. Last year, there were a couple players that could be pointed to as being high-impact players. These were guys that were basically going to win the job the second they got to camp. It’s why many people were high on Adrian Peterson to start the season.

That’s not necessarily the case this year.

Sure, there’s Darren McFadden. But McFadden is going to be mired in an Oakland offense that will be led by a first-year starter. People are already questioning JaMarcus Russell and his weight, his ability to read defenses, and his decision making. Peterson didn’t start off with Tavaris Jackson under center, but ended up there after establishing himself slightly.

But with this in mind, there are rookies that can help you later in drafts or should be taken as handcuffs to starters. Let’s go by position.

Running Back

McFadden will go earlier than any of the players mentioned here. He will get the bulk of the carries and provide decent fantasy value. I don’t see another Peterson here, especially when the Raiders will have Justin Fargas waiting and have Michael Bush once he gets healthy. Just know that there are other options.

The remaining rookies will have most of their value in backing up your starters. Jamaal Charles needs to be handcuffed to Larry Johnson. Charles will be a good plug-in option as a rookie if/when Johnson gets hurt.

Rashard Mendenhall needs to be considered a huge threat to Willie Parker. This could easily end up a time-share situation, and that would create some solid value for Mendenhall. His major impact could be in taking down the value of Parker. Think of this as a classic Maurice Jones-Drew/Fred Taylor situation, with Mendenhall as Jones-Drew.

Jonathan Stewart will play the same type of role for DeAngelo Williams. Williams’ value has never been high because he has never been given the full load. That will give Stewart immediate opportunity to both prove he can complement Williams and take over full-time. Great keeper-league value here.

Potential starting running backs from the rookies include Matt Forte and Kevin Smith. I wouldn’t want to rely on either as the primary back on my team, but they will make decent No. 2 or flex options in most leagues.

Expect Felix Jones to play the role of Julius Jones again for Marion Barber. Barber will be the primary guy, but Jones gives another dimension and could be a decent flex play as the season moves on.

Others to watch: Ray Rice, Steve Slaton, Ryan Torain

Wide Receivers

This is by far the hardest position to predict. There are very few wideouts that come into the season and can perform well as rookies. You can count the ones in the last 10 years on one hand. Receivers need time to develop and deal with the physicality of the NFL game. It’s nothing like they’ve seen in college.

But here are the ones that could make the most impact. In keeper leagues, they make the best selections in later rounds.

Dexter Jackson is my favorite in the class. He’ll be surrounded by veterans in Tampa and has the speed to be a deep threat once they decide on a quarterback. The most highly touted has been DeSean Jackson. He found ways of getting open at Cal, and will need to translate that to the NFL game in order to give the Eagles the big-play receiver they desperately want.

With the loss of Chris Henry, Andre Caldwell becomes a more viable option in Cincinnati. Caldwell is the best route runner of this rookie class and comes from a professional-type system out of Florida. Caldwell could be a steal in later rounds of your drafts.

James Hardy has the chance to be a No. 2 receiver in Buffalo. That’s the good news. The bad news is that it’s still Buffalo, and they still don’t really have a definitive quarterback to get him the ball. Lee Evans will see plenty of double-teams, so the chances will be there.

Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly will both do well in the offense run in Washington, but only one will likely see the time. These are No. 3 or four receivers on their own team, which doesn’t leave much room on fantasy rosters.

Mario Manningham has all the potential in the world; he just has to be able to use it effectively. Most of his value right now is in keeper leagues.

This class of receivers, with just a couple exceptions, will be fighting for No. 3 spots on their own teams. In pass-happy offenses, this is okay. But most won’t see enough passes thrown their way to be adequate in their first fantasy seasons.

Tight Ends

The conversation here begins and ends with Dustin Keller and John Carlson. Both could be useful in fantasy, if only because there aren’t many solid pass-catching tight ends. Outside the top-five to 10, it’s like drafting a catcher in fantasy baseball: all the stats will look alike.

Quarterbacks

To quote one of my favorite bloggers, Dan Shanoff, we should just say, “Moving on…” But we’ll talk a bit about them.

I don’t trust Boston College quarterbacks. Want a bold prediction? Five years from now, Glenn Foley will still be the second-best quarterback in the NFL from Boston College (too much of Flutie’s career was CFL, doesn’t count).

I just don’t see Matt Ryan being successful. Yes, he’s a starting quarterback, but unless you need two of them each week, he won’t bring enough to the table.

He’s a first-year player with a first-year coach and a first-year starter at running back. Doesn’t exactly sound like a formula for success this season. Keeper-league draft pick only.

(And, no, that’s not my anti-Boston College bias coming through, I promise.)

I’d love to be able to tell you about Brian Brohm being the backup in Green Bay. Honestly, I might get to yet. I think Brohm is the better quarterback in the duel with Rodgers. While Rodgers is being given the job, expect some healthy competition.

If Brett Favre is involved, Brohm could still be the No. 2, as Rodgers may shoot his way out of town. I almost mean that literally.

Joe Flacco can be a solid starter in the NFL. I just don’t think it will be this season. Troy Smith will likely win the job to start with, but Flacco will be there. He has tremendous arm strength, a quick release, and great accuracy on his ball. Flacco could be the best quarterback in this class, period.

Let’s not discuss Chad Henne. He could be good, he could get eaten alive. Either way, you don’t want to draft him this year.

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Alright, that’s the base for the rookies. The beer at the ‘Table has gone warm. We’ll get a refill and be back with position breakdowns. Check out the full Roundtable blog.