NHL Playoffs: Round One Analysis, Round Two Predictions

Well it’s the end of Round One of the NHL playoffs and I went 6-2 in this round as compared to 7-1 last year. I didn’t expect the Washington Capitals to out-San Jose San Jose, and the Sharks themselves added enough character players to cover up for Joe and his two loafing line mates to prevent a defeat against a bad Colorado team.

This article is divided into three sections. In the first section, I'm going to list the players whose careers took a downward turn thanks to their performance in the first round of the playoffs.

In the second section, I'm going to try to assess the immediate future of the first-round losers.

In the third section, I'm going to try to continue my soothsaying ways successfully and predict the conference final combatants.

I. Players In Trouble

In compiling this section, it is wise to remember the human aspect of sports. It is easy for any critic like myself to sit back and say, "Can the bum!" based on their actual performance, and forget that people are only human and do not perform like automatic machines.

All these failures are example of players who made mistakes and for some reason could not rise in a pressure situation. I make lots of mistakes too in some situations, but I don't have thousands of critics/fans calling for my execution/firing.

Fans should also remember that in a lot of these cases, the player has a family to support.

That said, the nature of sports is ruthless with only one winner. In most of these cases, there is a continuous pattern of failure which fans will not tolerate if they want a winning team.
 
1.  Jose Theodore

He was on my list last year. Why he was ever started remains a mystery. Why he managed to stay in the NHL, even as a backup, either reflects a decline in overall goaltender quality or remains another mystery.

2.  Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, Danny Heatly

Normally players from winning teams shouldn’t be on this list but the “Floater Line” did its best to undermine the San Jose Sharks yet again.

Typical of their play was in the last clinching game. Thornton was personally humiliated on Colorado’s first goal, and in the third period, when the coach reunited the “big” line for only one shift, less than one minute later, the puck was in the San Jose net, scored by a Colorado line that until that point, hadn’t had a shot on goal. 

They were Colorado’s best allies in the series. Regardless of how San Jose does, these three should be traded immediately after the playoffs (if anyone else is stupid enough to want them) and if the general manager hasn’t woken up after all these years to how bad this group is in pressure situations, he should be fired first.

3.  Martin Brodeur

It’s always sad to see a great player decline after he has been great for so long, but Martin Brodeur is no longer the goaltender he was. He lost his starting job on Team Canada in the Olympics, and now has seen his team exit the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the last few years too early. 

He is no longer the difference-maker he once was. He can no longer help the Devils, who need a massive retooling. A trade to a team with a great offense that needs just enough goaltending to get by (Chicago? Tampa Bay? Los Angeles?) might give him one last shot at glory unless he decides to retire.

4.  Carey Price

He didn’t play much and it’s unfair to blame him in such limited time against the Washington powerhouse, but Montreal is now Jaroslav Halak’s team, due more to his own great play instead of Price’s poor play. Don’t be surprised if Price is traded in the offseason to strengthen the Canadiens elsewhere.

5.  Alexander Ovechkin

People won’t be mentioning him in the same breath as Sidney Crosby after this year.

Some people will now say he’s not even the best Russian in the NHL and that Evgeni Malkin is better.

He had a horrible Olympics, especially against Canada, which turned him invisible. He was expected to be the leader for Washington in a series against a bad Montreal team that got great goaltending, and much of the blame for the pitiful end of the Capitals will be laid rightly or wrongly at his door.

Some people believe that because of his play, Ovechkin has been nursing a secret injury.  That’s the only excuse that will save him from much condemnation and loss of status.

II. The Future of the Losing Teams

1.  Colorado Avalanche

They were the worst team of all the playoff teams, kept around by the horrible play of San Jose’s “star” players. Despite the best efforts of Thornton and company to sabotage their own team and let Colorado win, the Sharks managed to prevail. A better team might have swept them.

Nevertheless there are some positives for this team. Every player who had no playoff experience now has some and there were moments when Colorado looked good against any opponent.

They were also missing two of their best players who had injuries. In particular, Craig Anderson established himself as the successor to Patrick Roy. But this team needs lots more talent, even to get to the playoffs next year, never mind taking the next step to become a Cup contender.

2.  New Jersey Devils

A colossal disappointment for this team that managed to beat out Pittsburgh for the division lead, only to exit too early from the playoffs again. The worst thing to find out is that they cannot rely any more on their veteran players who carried them to glory in the past, particularly goaltender Martin Brodeur, and now face a massive retooling.

Even the coach, Jacques Lemaire, has decided to call it a career.

One immediate decision revolves around Ilya Kovalchuk. He was not enough to lift the New Jersey offense by himself. They got some, but not enough production from him in the playoffs and now must decide if they want to keep him and build around him or let him go and try something else.

This team faces a few dark years ahead as they try to get younger and become a team on the rise again, instead of being one in decline.

3.  Nashville Predators

The problem with this team is that, outside of Shea Weber, they have no stars.

No wonder the Predators have not made much of an impact with the Nashville fans, media and corporate community. The defeat will only reinforce the apathy of everyone to hockey despite the improved play this year. The fans will continue to think that the Predators made no progress and are still spinning their wheels.

The Predators need one or two star players who can produce in the clutch if they want to move forward in the playoffs, make an impact in Nashville, or even remain in the city.

4.  Buffalo Sabres

They are similar to Nashville in that except for Ryan Miller, Tyler Myers, and possibly Thomas Vanek, they are a bunch of no-names, and no “Don Cherry lunch pail” style team has ever won the Stanley Cup.

This team is hard working and is well coached, but sooner or later in the playoffs they will run into a team that works just as hard, but has more talent. To be an NHL champion, you can’t do it on the cheap and the Sabres need more star players to become a true contender.

5.  Los Angeles Kings

They did very well for a team that hadn’t made the playoffs for more than half a decade and had over half the team making their playoff debuts. The foundation is here to become a true contender in a few years.

The defense and, at times, the power play were particularly impressive and sometimes they showed they could play equally with a superior team.

Unlike Buffalo and Nashville, there are stars and potential stars on this team to build around. 

One potential trouble area might be goaltending, where Jonathan Quick looked good in some games and not a goaltender of the future in others. This team needs more experience, more physical toughness, and more star forwards to develop further.

6.  Phoenix Coyotes

It’s impossible to make a clear judgement about either this team’s on-ice and off-ice future.  Their best moment in the playoffs came in Game Six, where the whole team played an inspired game and forced a Game Seven against an experienced contender, Detroit. But that was quickly countered in the following game, which was like a men-against-boys affair. 

The one solid asset this team has is goaltender Ilya Bryzgalov, and as long as they have him they have a chance to make the playoffs. Like the Predators and Sabres, this team needs more star players that can come through in the clutch.

Next season will tell if this year’s success is a desert mirage, and whether the team’s existence in Arizona is the same thing.

7.  Ottawa Senators

If they had been playing anyone else but Pittsburgh, Ottawa might still be playing.  Pittsburgh is the team to beat, the best team in the playoffs, one that can start the next NHL dynasty, and the Senators managed to take them half way to elimination.

This team is well coached. Both goaltenders were good, but need more playoff experience.  Jason Spezza needs to be more consistent. The team was also missing three key players with injuries, and Daniel Alfredson played hurt. 

To advance further, this team needs to win its division to avoid such a tough opponent in the first round, be luckier with injuries, and draft another goal scorer.

Peter Regin could be a future star on this team. Alfredson is also getting old and there could be concerns as to how long he can continue to play at his current level. If Alfredson can continue and the younger players develop, better playoff years will come for this team.

8.  Washington Capitals

It’s not that the Washington Capitals lost, but they lost to one of the two worst playoff teams, a team that couldn’t beat such powerhouses as the New York Islanders, Carolina, and Toronto in the last three games of the regular season to squeak into the playoffs. 

Washington now has the odious record of losing more Game Seven playoff games on home ice than any team in NHL history.

This is more than just an ordinary defeat, but one that can tear the very soul of the team apart for years to come. Now everything is open to question on Washington, including coaching, individual player performances, goaltending, defensive play, heart, physical toughness, leadership, responding in the clutch, killer instinct, maturity, and overall team chemistry.

Washington announced itself last year as the team that could prevent the Pittsburgh dynasty, largely based on the idea that Alexander Ovechkin was the equal of Sidney Crosby.  But in contrast to Pittsburgh, their playoff performances have been strained and pitiful. All three playoff series have gone to seven games (lack of a killer instinct), two of them losses, the latest to a vastly inferior team.

Watching Game Seven, I noted how the commentators said that Montreal plays a team game, whereas Washington was relying on individual star performances—a bad way to play in the tougher playoffs. I also noted how bad Washington is defensively, which is more noticeable when they don’t score a lot of goals. Montreal may not have had a lot of shots and scoring chances, but when they got them, they were eye-openers. 

Also bad were coaching decisions like starting Jose Theodore for two games. They were lucky they were playing a bad team like Montreal. A better team might have eliminated them earlier, never mind challenging Pittsburgh.

Many people are comparing this defeat to Montreal’s ousting of Boston in 1971, but a better comparison is to Edmonton’s defeat by Los Angeles in 1982, when immaturity sparked panic.

For Washington there are two paths: they can take the path that Edmonton took after its defeat, learn from their mistakes, and gain more maturity; or they can guess wrong, go in circles like San Jose has done the past few years, trying to discover which players have the best spirit and who produces under pressure.

It may take a coaching change to affect the first option. For now they are paper tigers, not real ones.

III. Second-Round Predictions

Eastern Conference

Pittsburgh vs Montreal

Montreal beat the pretenders and now must play the contenders, the defending Stanley Cup Champions, who have all the things that Washington didn’t have: clutch play and leadership from their top players, a killer instinct, physical toughness, and good coaching. Halak won’t be enough this time.

Pittsburgh will find playing Canada’s other Eastern Conference representative much easier.  Pittsburgh will win in four games, five at the most.

Boston vs Philadelphia

This is the hardest series to predict. In the first round, Philadelphia played a team they had beaten consistently in the regular season and were able to repeat that in the playoffs. But there is no edge like that here, where the teams split their regular season games.

Both goaltenders established themselves as big time playoff performers whom their team can rely on.

The pitiful Boston offense is countered by a worse Philadelphia defense. Boston has home ice advantage, but that hasn’t meant anything in the Eastern Conference, where the top three teams have been ousted.

Unless one team shows a definite edge in any aspect of play, this series will be a long one. I think the play of Tuuka Rask, who has entered the playoffs with something to prove, will just be enough to get Boston by the Flyers in six or seven games. But if the opposite happened, it would not be a surprise.

Western Conference

Chicago vs Vancouver

Many Vancouver fans were hoping for a rematch. They may end up regretting it.

Chicago’s offense is just as potent as last year. Vancouver desperately wants to prove it is an elite team. What they have proved so far, this year and last, is that they are better than every first round losing team. Now they want to prove that they are on the next level and beat other elite teams.

So what has changed from last year’s matchup? Both teams have more playoff experience—an equal. The Sedins and Mikael Samuelsson are producing in the clutch—a plus for Vancouver. Chicago’s goaltending is worse—a minus for them. The Los Angeles series raised serious questions about Vancouver’s penalty killing—a potential big minus for them against a team like Chicago. 

Also Vancouver played a dopey style for stretches against Los Angeles which could be fatal against a team like Chicago. Chicago still has more stars on defense and their overall offense is better than Vancouver.

Vancouver should have a big edge in goaltending, but last year Chicago made Roberto Luongo look like the team’s weakness, instead of its strength, an image he still hasn’t shaken off despite winning the gold medal for Team Canada.

To decide who wins, irrationals must be considered. Does Chicago still have Luongo’s number? And sometimes, once one team “learns” how to beat another team the first time, it keeps beating them consistently for years to come. Ask the Kansas City Chiefs about the Miami Dolphins or the Cleveland Browns about the Denver Broncos.

On the other hand, with the Olympic victory, 2010 may be Luongo’s year. At times he looked like the goaltender everybody projected him to be against Los Angeles. But it was against Los Angeles, not Chicago.

Then there has been the clutch play of the Sedins and Samuelsson. I’m going a bit with my heart here instead of my head. I’m saying that 2010 is Luongo’s year. I’m banking on the clutch play of Samuelsson and the Sedins.  I’m saying that the Chicago goaltending is too bad for even their great offense to make up for.

I’m saying that Vancouver will win in six games.

San Jose vs Detroit

This is a much easier series to call. Detroit has won the big one and San Jose has not. But there is more to it than that.

San Jose has the added burden of carrying three players pretending to be a “top” line while actually contributing nothing in the playoffs year after year. They produced nothing against a bad team from Colorado and they certainly won’t against a harder hitting, experienced team from Detroit.

The octopus will not have to use seven tentacles to remove a shark with three loafers stuck to its back. Six tentacles will be needed at the most, if not less, and hopefully San Jose’s exit will finally knock some sense into their management, who will send the three champions of underachievement finally out the exit door.

The Sharks’ fans and the rest of team that worked its heart out against Colorado deserve something better than carrying a trio of disinterested freeloaders.