World Championship of Fantasy Football Draft Breakdown Part 1

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World Championship of Fantasy Football Draft Breakdown Part 1

by John Gustafson, john@fantasylion.com

I love fantasy football.. shocking, right? As most of you know I started drafting for my first league this year in the New Jersey Fantasy Football League (NJFFL) which is a dynasty league. On Thursday I’ll start drafing for my first redraft league. It’s a satellite league for the World Championships of Fantasy Football. The league winner gets an automatic bid into the 2011 WCOFF Main Event and a shot to win $300,000. WCOFF’s first satellite draft started last Thursday. I want to take a look at that draft and how each round has gone and get a better feel about what to expect for my draft. It’s always easier to breakdown a draft I’m not participating in because I can be more critical. I always feel bad when I say someone I’m playing in a league with had a bad pick, but I have no problem doing it for someone else’s draft. =) Today I’ll tackle the first 3 rounds and take a look at the 4th-6th rounds later this week. You can follow the live draft results by going to the league home page. You’ll find the live draft under the “League” tab. Ladies and gentleman, welcome to the 2010 WCOFF!

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ROUND 1

1. USFLSCOTTY- Chris Johnson, Ten RB

2. Wicked Klowns- Adrian Peterson, Min RB

3. Ws Marauders- Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac RB

4. monkeyville- Ray Rice, Bal RB

5. Coyote Streakers- Frank Gore, SF RB

6. Thunder Roadsters- Andre Johnson, Hou WR

7. The Gerbil King- Randy Moss, NE WR

8. Rainbow_Warriors13- Michael Turner, Atl RB

9. Big Daddy- Steven Jackson, Stl RB

10. Big Country- Jamaal Charles, KC RB

11. purestrength1- Reggie Wayne, Ind WR

12. Sprearmint Rhinos- Larry Fitzgerald, Ari WR

POSITION BREAKDOWN: 8 RBs, 4 WRs

BEST PICK: It’s hard to pick a “best pick” in the first round so for this round I’ll go with the best value. In that case, Big Daddy had the best pick with Steven Jackson at 9. I have Jackson ranked 5 overall at RB. He’s a very solid back who does it all and a good value towards the end of the first round. If I’m picking at the end of round 1 on Thursday, I’d love to get Jackson as I think he’s the 2nd best RB in the NFL behind CJ28.

WORST PICK: There’s a tie. Michael Turner and Jamaal Charles are not good values for the first round. Both could pay off and turn out to justify being picked this high, but both come with quite a few question marks. For Turner, he had a down year before getting hurt last year. What’s worse is his backup Jason Snelling came in for him and had some solid games so they may want to supplement Turner’s carries this year to keep him healthy. I don’t like taking guys early coming off injuries. Also Turner doesn’t catch the ball, big no-no for me.

As for Charles, I love the guy, he’s dynamite. But the Chiefs went out and signed Thomas Jones this offseason. Most who are drunk on the Charles juice don’t think it will affect Charles’ numbers too much. I disagree. Charles is the starter, but Jones will see his fair share of carries because Charles isn’t a big back and probably wouldn’t be able to carry a full workload over the course of the season. Because of Jones’ presence, I have Charles conservatively ranked at 16 overall at RB. I wouldn’t take Charles until the late second round.

OTHER OBSERVATIONS: No surprise with the first 4 picks. I’m expecting 95% of drafts to go like that. However, I’m a little suprised we didn’t see a QB go off the board in round 1. You almost always see that, even in these high stakes leagues. I’m not a fan of it, but this year there aren’t a lot of guaranteed studs at RB and WR so I have no problem laying up in the first round and taking Rodgers, Manning, or Brees. I’d much rather have one of them over Michael Turner or Jamaal Charles.

ROUND 2

1. Sprearmint Rhinos- Aaron Rodgers, GB QB

2. purestrength1- Peyton Manning, Ind QB

3. Big Country- Calvin Johnson, Det WR

4. Big Daddy- Marques Colston, NO WR

5. Rainbow_Warriors13- DeSean Jackson, Phi WR

6. The Gerbil King- Miles Austin, Dal WR

7. Thunder Roadsters- Shonn Greene, NYJ RB

8. Coyote Streakers- Brandon Marshall, Mia WR

9. monkeyville- Roddy White, Atl WR

10. Ws Marauders- Sidney Rice, Min WR

11. Wicked Klowns- Drew Brees, NO QB

12. USFLSCOTTY- Steve Smith, NYG WR

POSITION BREAKDOWN: 8 WRs, 3 QBs, 1 RB

BEST PICK: I really like the Greene pick towards the middle of the round, but the best pick in my opinion is Drew Brees at 2.11. Wicked Klowns (an Insane Clown Posse enthusiast I’m sure) paired AP in the first round with the Super Bowl MVP in Drew Brees. By doing so he ensured himself 2 of the top scorers from last year and a top 3 QB and top 2 RB. Wicked Klowns pretty much gave himself a lock for 40-50 points each week and is building his team on 2 guaranteed studs. With so much uncertainty this year, this is not a bad way to go. Brees was typically a first rounder last year so getting him at the end of the second round is a real nice value. Like me, the Klowns aren’t worried about no stinkin’ Madden Curse.

WORST PICK: Ironically enough, the worst pick in this round was Brees’ teammate Marques Colston at 2.4. Colston was the 6th WR taken in the draft. I have him ranked at 14. There’s 7 other WRs I would have taken over Colston at this point in the draft (Austin, Marshall, Rice, Jennings, Boldin, Jackson, White). It’s not that I don’t like Colston, it’s that the Saints have so many weapons, it’s a crapshoot determining who’s going to get the production in that offense week-to-week. Colston would be a WR I take in the 3rd round as my 2nd WR, but definitely not as my #1 in the 2nd round.

OTHER OBSERVATIONS: I thought it was interesting that only 1 RB was selected in round 2. However, with all the running back by committees (RBBC) in the NFL now, the days of going RB-RB are long gone. I love the WR position, but you usually see 3-5 running backs go in the 2nd round. I can’t blame these owners for going WR though. It’s a safe pick at this point in the draft and having a stud WR is a vital part of any team hoping to be successful.

ROUND 3

1. USFLSCOTTY- Dallas Clark, Ind TE

2. Wicked Klowns- Vincent Jackson, SD WR

3. Ws Marauders- Greg Jennings, GB WR

4. monkeyville- Cedric Benson, Cin RB

5. Coyote Streakers- Rashard Mendenhall, Pit RB

6. Thunder Roadsters- DeAngelo Williams, Car RB

7. The Gerbil King- Matt Forte, Chi RB

8. Rainbow_Warriors13- Ryan Grant, GB RB

9. Big Daddy- Steve Smith, Car WR

10. Big Country- Knowshon Moreno, Den RB

11. purestrength1- Joseph Addai, Ind RB

12. Sprearmint Rhinos- Antonio Gates, SD TE

POSITION BREAKDOWN:  7 RBs, 3 WRs, 2 TEs

BEST PICK: This was a tough one, but I’m going to give the edge to Team purestrength1. I have Addai at 7 for RBs and I’ve gotten a lot of crap for it. A lot of people are worried about Donald Brown, but as of right now, I’m not. Things could change this summer and if they do I’ll knock Addai a few notches. But for now, he’s the lead back on one of the best offenses in the NFL and he catches the ball. You can’t ask for more than that from your 1st or 2nd RB. purestrength1 is taking a bit of a gamble though as now he has 3 players from the Indy offense in Manning, Wayne, and Addai. The Colts offense is great however, so this should translate to at least 50-60 points most weeks for Team purestrength1.

WORST PICK: Matt Forte was easily the worst pick of this round. I have Forte generously ranked at 23 right now. The acquisition of Chester Taylor and Forte’s ineffectiveness last year have lead me to believe he will be challenged for his starting job and could possibly lose out as Taylor is a solid and proven back. To The Gerbil King’s credit, he does have 2 great WRs in Austin and Moss on his roster, so I could see why he would take a gamble on Forte. Running backs in Mike Martz offenses are usually fantasy studs. If Forte can overcome all the “ifs” he could be a high reward pick for The Gerbils.

OTHER OBSERVATIONS: The identities and strategies of the teams are starting to take shape. I like the 2 owners going TE in this round trying to beat the TE run to follow. The 3rd round is typically where you’ll see this take place. Sometimes I’ll use that strategy if I know I can make up for it later with an “ace up my sleeve” type player later in the draft. This year I’ll probably wait on a TE though as the position is pretty deep. Overall, this was a very solid round and I like a lot of the players that were selected.

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