Eskendereya Out For The Kentucky Derby: Run For the Roses Wide Open

Pictured here is jockey Calvin Borel sitting atop last year's Kentucky Derby Champion, Mine That Bird, moments after his shocking 50-1 longshot upset.

Fast forward a year later, and we may well be shaping up for another huge longshot being crowned as the Kentucky Derby champion. 

In the first four months of the 2010 season, we have really only seen a handlful of horses truly stamp themselves as being serious contenders for this year's Run for the Roses.  Now, with the untimely news that likely Derby favorite Eskendereya will not be running this coming Saturday, the picture has become all the more distorted.

This year's Derby prep season was rife with upsets and supposed Derby threats weretaken down on a weekly basis.........all except for Wood Memorial champion and expected Derby favorite Eskendereya.

Now, with Eskendereya out, this year's Derby will have as open a betting field as we saw last year when I Want Revenge and Quality Road were held out of running in last year's race.

So who is left?

A rather interesting question, that in reality is filled with more questions, as you start digging into the remaining contenders.  Let's take a peek at who will be considered the biggest contenders come Saturday.

Sidneys Candy:   Hard to argue with the recent form of this John Sadler trained colt bred out of the well known champion Candy Ride.  In three starts this year, Sidney's Candy has put away his competition to ride away with three solid victories.  The problem with these victories, however, is that they have all come at the expense of Sindey's Candy getting easy leads on easy fractions and left alone up front to literally walk home with wins in rather unimpressive times.

Come next Saturday, it is a guarantee that the pace for the Kentucky Derby will not go out in the first half mile in :48 and 2/5ths seconds.  As with most Kentucky Derbies, the pace up front is usually hot and frantic.  Many times at blistering fractions of :45 seconds, or even faster.  If Sidney's Candy is to 'fire' out in his normal :48 and 2/5ths, there is no way he'll be leading the Kenctucky Derby at the 1/2 mile mark.  Only then will we find out if he has the ability to pass his rivals coming down the stretch going the longest distance he has ever ran in his life. 

While Sidney's Candy will be a strong betting interest, and likely second favorite next weekend, I'll be looking elsewhere for the actual winner.

Lookin At Lucky :  The likely favorite this weekend is Lookin At Lucky.  Since his first race as a Maiden, Lucky has very much looked the part during his entire career to be a  likely Kentucky Derby contender.  He is coming into the Kentucky Derby after a tough performance in the Santa Anita Derby in which he finished third to Sidney's Candy while he was bothered with traffic and boxed in for nearly the entire race.  While the excuse can be made that he faced such a horrid trip during the Santa Anita Derby, it isn't like he will face a less challenging trip or less traffic in the Kentucky Derby either.

The other question regarding Lucky, is his breeding pedigree.  While he is smartly bred, it isn't a real inspiring pedigree that he'll be able to handle the full mile and a quarter that is demanded from a Kentucky Derby champion.  A statement could be made that a mile and a sixteenth to an eigth could really be his limitation.  While he looks to have the ability to run further, that question won't be answered until this Saturday.

Jackson Bend :  Going back to last October, Jackson Bend put in one of the best performances of any two-year old in winning the Florida Stallion-In Reality.  Since then, we have seen three second place finishes during his three-year old campaign. 

You have to respect this horse in that regardless of the competition or the conditions he always seems ready to fire.  He also has the stalking type demeanor that always seems to come in handy come the first weekend in May.

While Jackson Bend should get solid betting interest, he'll likely go off at 8-1 or better.  Maybe even 15 -1 type numbers that are very appealing for a horse that doesn't seem to quit and always seems ready to run.

American Lion:   In October of last year, this lightly raced colt breezed to a dominating 6 and 3/4 length victory at Keeneland, breaking his Maiden at the same time.

Immediately this solidly bred colt was pointed towards a solid Kentucky Derby run.  He didn't disappoint with his Grade III stakes win at Hollywood Park, and was sitting in prime position rolling into his three-year old season.

Then disaster kind of struck. 

American Lion was basically a non-factor in his two Derby preps at Santa Anita finishing a disappointing third and fourth to eventual winners in Coracortado and Sidney's Candy respectively.  While sitting comfortbaly close in the RB Lewis coming into the stretch, American Lion folded badly in his first try at two turns.  He then backed that up with a solidly beaten fourth place finish in the San Felipe.

Then hope sprung again in his gate to wire win in the Illinois Derby in which he simply outclassed a rather timid field.  While he did win, it was a supremely unimpressive time that definitely does not look like a true Kentucky Derby champion type effort.

The big question for bettors when dealing with American Lion, is how far he can progress after that victory?  His breeding is outstanding coming out of Tiznow and Storm Cat.  Therefore, distance should not be a problem.  However, if he is to win, he'll have to spike his 98 Beyer number earned in the Illinois Derby by at least six points.  Not out of the question, but he'll be running against the best field he has ever faced on Saturday.

Be sure to check the works on this entrant, as he could prove to be the most improved horse come Saturday, and an outside shot of being the actual winner.  Be sure to not leave this guy out on exotic tickets nonetheless.

Conveyance:   With only five starts in his career, this lightly raced colt will easily be one of the freshest.  Rolling to four straight wins to begin his career, Conveyance was becoming sort of an up-and-comer for Derby afficionados to really keep an eye on.

Then came the Sunland Derby at Sunland Park.  As a pretty heavy favorite, he assumed his normal position at the front of the field.  Then making the turn for home in his only career run of over one mile, he was impressively defeated by a hard-charging Endorsement. 

Thus the real question for Conveyance: will distance be a problem?  Looking at his breeding it definitely sparks as a huge interest.  While Indian Blessing has provided some solid routers, he has been more apt at breeding sprinters and milers.  His opposite side of breeding doesn't show any real route running capability at all.

While it may be tough to keep such a winning horse out, he may well be faced with serious distance questions for a race that is expected to have some seriously quick fractions up front.  Can Conveyance be held back and come off the pace?  Hard to see from a horse who has won all of his races on the front end expending soldly paced fractions.  If he is caught up in the early pace, which is very likely, I find it hard to believe that he'll be around come the final stretch run.

Dublin:   Hard to believe that a horse with only two wins in eight career races can be much of a factor in the Kentucky Derby.  But such is the case for the superbly bred Dublin.

While he hasn't shown much in his Derby preps, Dublin has racked up two thirds and a second during his 2010 campaign.  And only one of those races did he actually lose ground to the eventual winner coming down the stretch.

With breeding from Afleet Alex and Storm Bird, distance is definitely not a question.  Neither is hall-of-fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas. 

While Dublin hasn't won much, he has shown ability to sit just off the lead as well as come rushing from well behind.  If one is expecting a normal torrid Derby pace, the huge fractions up front could set up well for this deep closing colt that has a ton of ability.  Look for 'Wise Guys' to be on this guy even if he is going off at odds of 20-1 or even greater. 

Noble's Promise:   An interesting colt that supposedly screams speed, due to his breeding; has never led a race at the first or seconnd call in his entire career.

Then again, he has never been one to hold on late when he has gotten the lead either.

His Arkansas Derby prep as the favorite, and his eventual running of fifth, is hard to not recognize.  His rather meager Beyer figures, and all over the board type finishes, are tough to get over as well. 

While this horse looks to have a solid amount of talent, he has far from been able to put it all on the track.  Don't be shocked if his odds are at 20-1 or greater, and then again, don't be afraid to wager on him either.  His second place finish to Looking at Lucky two back, was lost by a narrow head.  Throwing in his likely 'bounce' for the effort in the Arkansas Derby, he could well be in position to move forward greatly after his Rebel effort as well.

Endorsement:   Talk about lightly raced.  This colt has only ran four lifetime races.  He also didn't break his Maiden until February 20th of this year. 

After that Maiden victory, he was plugged into the Sunland Derby in hopes of gaining entrance into the Kentucky Derby. 

He didn't disappoint. 

Sitting just off of the early running of Conveyance, Endorsement streaked the Sunland track in a final furlong of :11 and 4/5ths seconds under light urging and what looked to be a horse still full of run.

With breeding out of Distorted Humor and A.P. Indy, Endorsement has the pedigree of a Belmont Stakes champion of a mile and a half, let alone a mile and a quarter. 

This could be the most interesting horse for wagering amongst all of them.  Will he bounce?  Will he keep improving?  While many will find it tough for a horse that finally put it all together in his lone prep race for the Kentucky Derby to actually win it, he has some serious upside as well. 

Check the wagering boards on this one, it will likely be volatile early and often before the race finally kicks off.

Ice Box:   Are you looking for a closer?  I mean a really, really deep closer?  Than look no further than Ice Box.

Sitting 11 lenghts back in the Florida Derby at first call, this colt didn't rally until he really needed to.  The 20-1 shot then rolled home to spike fellow closer Pleasant Prince and the race favorite Rule in taking this important Derby prep. 

Without any impressive races before the Florida Derby, this seriously improving colt will likely be taken seriously form the tote wagerers.  Bred out of A.P. Indy and Tabasco Cat, this Nicholas Zito entrant looks to be a serious factor come Saturday.

If you liked Giacomo in 2005, you'll love Ice Box.  With seven races and three wins, without hitting the board in any other race, this entry seems like an all or nothing type wager.

Line Of David:   As ugly as his past performances may look, he has won three straight races and is definitely on the upswing. 

Having the lead is critical for this colt to win the Derby.  In his only three wins of his career, they have all come on the front end.  If you are looking for some pace, his :46 1/5ths split in his latest victory at the Arkansas Derby gives you a first look at how fast this early pace might be.

If Line of David is to win on Saturday, it has to come from the lead.  The owner, trainer, and jockey simply have no choice as he has never passed another horse in his entire career to date. 

While his win in the Arkansas Derby was impressive, it is hard to believe that he will be able to maintain fractions that will likely be in the :45 and change, and the 1:10 type fashion to pull off another shocker on Saturday.

Mission Impazible:   He is getting better, is greatly trained, and comes into the race off of what is easily the biggest win of his career. 

Breeding isn't a problem for the distance, but straight up talent may be.

With only his latest victory in the Louisiana Derby and a 4 1/2 furlong win at Keeneland to his resume, it is tough to back this colt as a Derby type winner.  In his other Derby prep before the Louisiana Derby, he was beaten soundly by a few in here, and one who won't even run.  He has yet to beat anybody of notice.  While he has the best trainer in the game coming into this one, it definitely seems like the deck is stacked against him.

Super Saver:   Much like Jackson Bend, this colt just doesn't seem to ever run a bad race. 

While he hasn't won all that much lately, including two tough Derby prep losses, this horse looks to have a ton of talent.

He is also trained by the best of the best in Todd Pletcher, and with a likely mount of Calvin Borel on top, we can't dismiss this guy's chances.  Nobody will likely forget the 'Bo-rail' run in last year's Kentucky Derby for a very, very, very long time.

With Derby wagerers likely remembering that ride for the ages, his wagering interest will likely be a bit of an underlay as they say. 

Kentucky Derby:   While there are many other wagering interests in this race, these look to be the one's to really take a peek at.  While I've left off a few others that aren't confirmed for the race, such horses as Awesome Act and Paddy O'Prado shouldn't be discounted either.  We should also see a filly in Devil May Care out of the strong Pletcher barn as well.

Either way, it should be another fantastic Kentucky Derby.  Hopefully the rain will stay away, and we'll be treated again to the greatest two minutes in all of sports.