The SEC East: Predicting the Division Based on Numbers

The SEC is a dangerous conference.  This is obvious, based on the National Championship results over the last few years. 

However, this year, the SEC race is more open then ever, especially in the east.  Reigning super-power Florida has questions entering the season, and the typical competing powers (Georgia and Tennessee) both are much weaker then usual, with Tennessee actually looking like a bottom two team in the East.

To predict the SEC East is like trying to predict the weather three months from now.  It is basically impossible. 

Most experts feel as though it will shake out with Florida on top again, with Georgia and South Carolina 2-A and 2-B.  Then it fills out with Tennessee behind them, with Kentucky and Vanderbilt fighting for last place. 

Every team has strengths and weaknesses.  However, who has the proven production to back it up?  Here is how I plan on breaking this down.

I have chosen categories that I feel reflect the team's potential for success.  These categories are passer rating, rushing touchdowns, receiving touchdowns, and scoring defense.  I have also included the recruiting ranking, in order to gauge potential.   

I have ranked the teams from one to six.  If the team receives a ranking of one, they will earn six total team points.  If they earn a ranking of a six, they will earn one point. 

Is this a perfect system for grading?  Absolutely not, and I will not argue the merits of that.  It does not take into consideration potential, and because I will not include players that are not returning in the rankings (except for team defense...it is tough to gauge the impact of the losses in that category) some scores may be lower then they will actually be.

Is it something worth thinking about?  Absolutely.

Passer Rating

The most effective way to judge a quarterback is his passer rating.  This will take into account all aspects of the quarterback in question. 

For this category, I will use the projected starter's statistics.  If the quarterback is new and has not played, they will automatically be given a last place ranking.

Is this fair?  Well, no, but this ranking is specifically being based on returning talent, and not potential. John Brantley is included, because he played enough to warrent a rating, and he earns the top spot. 

Can he do that over the course of a whole season?  The bet here is yes.

1.   John Brantley 194.9 (FLORIDA)

2.   Stephen Garcia, 119.33 (SOUTH CAROLINA)

3.   Nick Hartline, 114.4 (KENTUCKY)

4. Larry Smith, 88.01 (VANDERBILT)

6a. Aaron Murray, No Prior Experience (GEORGIA)

6b. No Established Starter (Multiple Candidates) (TENNESSEE)

Rushing Touchdowns

Another important indicator of overall offensive success.  Most teams that are considered elite rely on the running game for a wide variety of reasons.  Florida will miss Tim Tebow's running ability.

1. KENTUCKY (24 Touchdowns)

2. GEORGIA (17 Touchdowns)

3. FLORIDA (16 Touchdowns)

4. SOUTH CAROLINA (12 Touchdowns)

5. VANDERBILT (11 Touchdowns)

6. TENNESSEE (Two Touchdowns)

Receiving Touchdowns

Receivers and tight ends are an essential part to any balanced offensive attack.  The receivers must have good hands, be fast, and most importantly, produce touchdowns. 

1. TENNESSEE (24 Touchdowns)

2. GEORGIA (19 Touchdowns)

3. SOUTH CAROLINA (15 Touchdowns)

4. KENTUCKY (10 Touchdowns)

5. FLORIDA (10 Touchdowns)

6. VANDERBILT (Six Touchdowns)

Scoring Defense

Why scoring defense?  Scoring defense is the bottom line.  You can sack the quarterback 400 times or intercept the ball 10 times a game, but if the opposition is still finding ways to put up points then you are not doing your job. 

It is also a better reflection of the team as a whole, because there are times the special team or offense put the defense in difficult positions. 

1.   FLORIDA (11.5 points per game)

2.   SOUTH CAROLINA (20.4 points per game)

3.   TENNESSEE (21.0 points per game)

4.   KENTUCKY (22.8 points per game)

5.   VANDERBILT (23.3 points per game)

6.   GEORGIA (26.4 points per game)

Recruiting Class

The recruiting class is the best way to judge what sort of new talent a team has coming in.  Generally, a good recruiting class brings in someone who will immediately help the team in some way.  These rankings are based on Rivals.com.

1. FLORIDA (2,938 recruiting points)

2. TENNESSEE (2,048 recruiting points)

3. GEORGIA (1,581 recruiting points)

4. SOUTH CAROLINA (1,342 recruiting points)

5. KENTUCKY (742 recruiting points)

6. VANDERBILT (468 recruiting points)

Team Breakdown

After adding the scores from each category, the results are actually a bit surprising.  (Remember, a first place finish is worth six points, second is worth five, third is worth four, fourth is worth three, fifth is worth two, and sixth is worth one).

Florida comes away (again) as the heavy favorite to win the division, with South Carolina being the closest competition.

There is a group of three teams in the middle separated by a small margin in Kentucky, Tennessee, and Georgia.  That actually seems realistic to me, although I would not favor Kentucky in that group.  Swap Georgia and Kentucky and I would almost completely agree with this assessment. 

Once again, Vandy stands little to no chance of competing.

1.  FLORIDA (28 total points)

2.  SOUTH CAROLINA (20 total points)

3.  KENTUCKY (18 total points)

4.  GEORGIA (17 total points)

5.  TENNESSEE (17 total points)

6.  VANDERBILT (Nine total points) 

I am actually a bit shocked as to how this worked out.  Seems pretty logical, save Kentucky possibly being number three.  There is talent on that squad though.

I look forward to a fantastic 2010 season.