Which Formula One Leader Will Win the Championship?

For all intents and purposes, the 2008 Formula One season may as well be starting now. The first 10 races have left us with three drivers (Felipe Massa, Lewis Hamilton, and Kimi Raikkonen) tied on 48 points with one more driver (Robert Kubica) two points back.

Aside from a few wins and podiums for these drivers, the first half of season might as well not have happened, given the aforementioned knot at the top of the championship standings.

No one driver appears to have a distinct advantage over any other at the top. Felipe Massa has been more consistent this year, and is tied for the series’ lead with three wins, but is still capable of renaming himself Felipe “Mess Up” in a given race.

Kimi Raikkonen is the defending champion, but he doesn’t seem to be on his usual form this year. Lewis Hamilton has been dynamite in some races, but has inexplicably struggled in others. Robert Kubica isn’t driving the best car, but has made the fewest mistakes and been the most consistent.

I think you get the picture. What we have on our hands is maybe the most wide-open title chase ever, one year after we saw one of the best ones since the 1980’s. Just how will this 2008 season end up?

First, let me address what is the easier of the two title battles to predict at this point: the Constructor’s Championship. Scuderia Ferrari has built the best car on this year’s grid. The McLaren and BMW Sauber cars may be quick and competitive, but the Scuderia’s car seems to have the advantage in outright pace.

Given that McLaren is too far back to make a charge, and BMW Sauber isn’t as fast as Ferrari, look for Ferrari to bag this year’s Constructors championship.

That’s where the easy predictions end. Ferrari may have the best car, but that far from assures one of their drivers of a World Driving Championship. As we all know, the fastest car and team doesn’t always win, but the smartest driver and team will always win.

So, who am I predicting to win this year’s WDC? Will it be the Brazilian, the Finn, the Briton, or the Pole? Well, I am going to go out on a limb, as I did last year when I predicted (although then on Facebook Formula One group) Kimi Raikkonen would win the WDC, I will pick Lewis Hamilton to win the 2008 Formula One World Driving Championship for a couple of reasons.

First, he could have, and probably should have, won last year’s title. While he was clearly disappointed with coming one point short, the disappointment of barely missing a championship will prove to be helpful in the long run. He now knows what it is like to endure a title chase and what he should (and should not) do to win it.

Any athlete that has missed out on a championship, at least at first, will tell you that going through that experience is helpful in the future due to the knowledge gained from it. I expect Hamilton to apply that knowledge this year.

Secondly, there is the aspect of teammates. Hamilton will have the added benefit of a teammate who will help him in Heikki Kovalainen. Even though McLaren treats their drivers equally, that is only until one is clearly and definitely ahead of the other.

Even though bad luck as played a big role in this field, Kovalainen is clearly behind Hamilton and won’t be able to catch up before season’s end, leaving Hamilton as the team’s lone bid in the WDC. His duties will turn toward helping Hamilton try to win this year’s crown, which can be the difference maker in who wins in the end (see last year).

Additionally, Ferrari teammates Felipe Massa and Kimi Raikkonen will have to battle each other for this year’s crown, as Hamilton and Fernando Alonso did while at McLaren in 2007. It is very possible, as we saw last year, that two teammates could get too caught up in their battle, allowing a third driver (Hamilton in this year’s case) to steal the driving title.

For those reasons, I’ll pick Lewis Hamilton to be this year’s World Driving Champion, and the youngest in the sport’s history to do so (a title which, ironically, Alonso currently holds). Such an occurrence would be a nice headline grabber for the sport, plus it would send ITV (and James Allen in particular) out in a heap of euphoria.