LeBron James, Kobe Bryant Faceoff
Though the two will team up to play for Team USA in the 2008 Olympics, the battle over superiority between Cleveland’s King James and Lakers legend Kobe Bryant remains fervent. The arguments between fans of each player range from those over current statistics to historical statistics. Who is better now? How do the two compare at the same age?
I chose to use the WhatIfSports supercomputer to find an answer to the great debate.
To determine which mega-star reigns, various teams were created and simulations performed:
Starting Line-ups:
Cavs (07-08): PG Delonte West, SG Wally Szczerbiak, SF LeBron James, PF Ben Wallace, C Zydrunas Ilgauskas
Lakers (00-01): PG Derek Fisher, SG Kobe Bryant, SF Rick Fox, PF Horace Grant , C Shaquille O'Neal
Lakers (07-08):PG Derek Fisher, SG Kobe Bryant, SF Vladimir Radmanovic, PF Lamar Odom, C Pau Gasol
For a historical perspective, teams from each player’s fifth professional season were pitted against each other. NBA champions, the 2000-2001 Lakers set the best post-season record in the history of the NBA at 15-1. Defending Eastern Conference champs, the 2007-2008 Cavaliers made an appearance in the NBA playoffs, losing to the eventual champion Boston Celtics in seven games.
James led the NBA in scoring in the 2007-2008 season with 30 points per game and was named to the All-NBA First Team. He also averaged 7.9 rebounds and 7.2 assists playing in 3,028 minutes over 75 games and scoring a total of 2,250 points in the season.
For the 2000-2001 season, Bryant was named to the All-NBA Second Team and played a large role in the NBA finals victory. He averaged 28.5 points, 5.9 rebounds and 5.0 assists playing in 2,783 minutes over 68 games and scoring a total of 1,938 points in the season.
When the teams were simulated against each other, the results showed the Lakers as victorious over the Cavs in 57 percent of the games. The 2000-2001 Lakers averaged 100.8 points per game, while the Cavaliers averaged 99.6 points per game.
To determine each player’s importance to his team, 07-08 LeBron James and 00-01 Kobe Bryant were swapped in the simulations; otherwise, the teams remained the same.
James teamed up with Shaq and the rest of the 2000-2001 Lakers to win 69 percent of the games over Bryant and the 2007-2008 Cavs. The Lakers and Cavaliers averaged 103.2 and 98.2 points per game respectively.
The statistics show that the Lakers team increased victory percentage by 12 percent with the addition of James or that the Cavaliers decreased winning percentage by 12 percent without him.
Each player was returned to his franchise, and the teams competed against an "average" NBA team.
The 2000-2001 Lakers beat the average team in 62 percent of the games, and the Cavs were victorious in 69 percent of the games.
The star players were swapped, and the teams faced the average team once again.
The results determined that Kobe and the Cavs won 49 percent of the games against the average team; James and the Lakers increased to a winning percentage of 65 percent.
It is evident that the loss of James significantly reduces the Cavs performance; his addition slightly amplifies the Lakers.
For a current comparison of the two players, the same simulations were performed. For the second set of simulations, the 2007-2008 Lakers were pitted against the 2007-2008 Cavaliers.
The 2007-2008 Lakers made an appearance in the NBA Finals. The team lost to the Boston Celtics in six games. During the season, Bryant was the NBA MVP and named to the All-NBA First Team. He averaged 28.3 points, 6.3 rebounds and 5.4 assists playing in 3,192 minutes over 82 games and scoring a total of 2,323 points in the season.
In play between the two actual 2007-08 teams, the Lakers beat the Cavs in 68 percent of the games, averaging 105.1 points per game, compared to the Cavs' 99.3 points per game.
The players were swapped, and James increased the Lakers' winning percentage by 10 percent, bringing it to 78 percent.
The most interesting argument came from simulations against the average team.
When Kobe Bryant and the Lakers faced the average team, they won 68 percent of the games. The Cavs were triumphant 57 percent of the time.
By swapping the players and performing the same contest, the results showed little variance. James and the Lakers won 69 percent of the games, and Bryant and the Cavs won 56 percent of the games, giving James a slight edge over Bryant.
From an experience perspective, James appears to be the more valuable player five years into the league. Currently though, the two players are very comparable, which justifies the intensity and validity of arguments for both players- even the supercomputer had trouble deciding. Ultimately, James' experience and ability as a floor general as exhibited through his passing and ball-handling, as well as his edge in rebounding, more than make up for his minor relative deficiencies in scoring efficiency and on the ball defense (LeBron is a much better defender than many may think).
In the end, though both formidable opponents, the simulations say LBJ conquers.
Whatifsports specializes in answering the great “What if?” questions in sports by simulating games between historical teams, and has exciting simulation games for MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL, college basketball and college football.
The WIS Playbook is a collection of sports articles generated by authors from within the WhatIfSports community. In the Playbook, you will find unique content that varies from our typical predictions and hypothetical matchups.
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2 months ago
Still doesn't mean that he IS the best. Kobe will hold that title for the next 4-5 yrs then LeBron can take it. Until then it really isn't any competition.
2 months ago
I have a B.S., and i am in the process of getting a master in mathematics, and it is unbelievable how lame statistics can be, you alter something on such a quantum level and skew things so horribly to get the desired results (that's how tobacco companies operate). It doesn't take but one small alteration of the data used to completely fabricate results that are biased. Also lebron plays in the EASTERN CONFERENCE!! give me a break, don't rely on stats to make your arguments for anything, one small situation, that statistically or probabilistically, shouldn't occur, can and will, each situation, and game should be judged on performance, not an average, or statistcis,... By the way, what kind of statistical model does this program use, i would be curious.....
from 2 months ago
Hey, Joe
Would that be the same "EASTERN CONFERENCE" that won the All Star Game and served the Lakers' butts up to them royally in the Finals. The Cavs gave the Celtics a better series, AND the Cavs do better against Western Conference teams than Kobe and the Lakers do against Eastern Conference teams (at least last year). How much longer are you guys going to keep making the same tired argument, that don't hold water no more?
from 2 months ago
I think we all know what your B.S. stands for, joe.
Also, if you think statistics can be so easily manipulated by changes on the "quantum level", then you should have no problem showing us all that Brian Scalabrine is statistically a better player than Michael Jordan ever was. Go on, joe, show us how simple it is to "completely fabricate results that are biased".
In the case of tobacco companies, they actually suppressed the results of studies that showed a causal relationship between smoking and various respiratory problems. In other words, the statistics told the truth, but the companies hid the results. In other cases, they would publish only partial findings that appeared to vindicate their position. Again, they were hiding a major part of the truth confirmed by statistics in such instances.
from 2 months ago
B.S.= Bachelor of Science, with holding results huh?? almost exactly what i was talking about... people from boston have a couple problems, reading, writing, and thinking...
from 2 months ago
Hey joe, I know you are a future Master of Mathematics and all that fancy stuff, so you might want to know that a "couple" is commonly referred to two, not three. You wrote: "people from boston have a couple problems, reading [#1], writing [#2], and thinking...[#3]". Maybe that wasn't such a rudimentary mistake...perhaps you were trying to show us how numbers can be used to trick people into believing false conclusions. If that's the case, then you are one clever person indeed!
Attention people: joe is an intellectual giant who should not be messed with! He will crush you with his flawless logic, his perfect grammar, and his zen-like mastery of deceptive statistics.
By the way, thank you for explaining what your B.S. stands for. Based on your responses, I think you are using statistics in some mysterious way to yet again confuse the rest of us simpletons into thinking that B.S. represents something other than that which plops out of a bovine's backside.
2 months ago
Andy (this is not to you, joe), don't be ridiculous. Who was it that didn't play (any relevant minutes) in that 2008 All-Star game due to a pinky injury?
Secondly, you're mixing things up for yourself. It's common knowledge that the Western Conference is the better one between the two. However, the Eastern Conference is the one with two of the best teams (Boston and Detroit). From the third team downward, in the eastern conference, it's practically a JV league in comparison.
Third, professional basketball is a game of matchups. Lebron James is a more difficult matchup for the Celtics because his biggest strength is his ability to drive to the basket and either score, get the foul, or both. Kobe's choice of basketball, on the other hand, played right into Boston's defense. If you go back and watch the tapes, you'll notice that the Lakers did well when they were driving to the basket, but the moment Kobe decided and began to take and miss more of his jumpers, the Lakers were dead in the water. Boston can credit their defense and the Lakers' lack of an effective offense for that championship.
Bottom line is, Kobe Bryant is the more complete player between the two. If his legs suddenly give out on him (which has happened over the last few seasons), he's capable of using different aspects of his game to score anyway. At this stage of his career, if Lebron can't drive to the basket, he's at least 80% less effective. Nobody is saying that Lebron will forever be in Kobe's shadow. He will get better, and as he continues to learn from Kobe and improve his game, he should eventually become the better player.
I watch both players and I can say that I appreciate both of them for what they are capable of. I enjoy the action packed, locomotive type offense that Lebron plays, but I appreciate that Kobe has turned the game of basketball into a mix of science and art (with some action included). He's deferring a lot more to his teammates these days since he's got a lot more options (players who've joined, others who've matured), but if you'd like to see some of his more amazing individual performances, I'd recommend that you watch some of the old Laker tapes (including the Kobe-Shaq era).
Don't get me wrong, Lebron is great, but I think a lot of people forget what Kobe has done throughout his career, including the years where he was as old as Lebron is now. Kobe has had more time to complete his individual ability to play the game. At some point down the road we'll probably be having the same discussion about Lebron and some future player. For now let's just appreciate the fact that we get to watch both of these guys play.
2 months ago
Statistics are tricky. You can't measure LeBron and Kobe based on Stats alone because both players play according to what is needed on the floor.
Kobe doesn't need to score as much as LeBron because Kobe has the better supporting cast. And he still scored 28 ppg.
They have different playing styles and play for drastically different teams in drastically different conferences and adjest accordingly.
But, I don't think anyone can debate the Kobe Bryant is the best pure scorer in the NBA. I don't think anyone will debate that LeBron will be the best scorer.
Kobe is a better on-ball defender. LeBron, with his massive frame, is getting much better.
The question isn't who the best player is now, but when (not if) will LeBron catch Kobe?
from 2 months ago
adjust*
2 months ago
Kobe "Tiny Left Eye" (aka "TLE") Bryant is the most overrated player the NBA has seen for the past 25 years. Has he ever led a team to a championship? Where would the Lakers have been this year without the mid-season gift of Gasol? No way TLE could have carried his team past the first round without Gasol. Even with Gasol, the Lakers needed a blatant "no call" against the Spurs to move past the former champions.
TLE is obviously adored by thousands of pubescent boys living in southern California, but that doesn't make him a better player.
Take a look at player efficiency ratings on the NBA site, one of the best overall indicators of a player's performance. Overall, LebRon James ranked first; TLE ranked fifth. You think the Eastern Conference is weak? Well, use the "splits" filter and you'll see that TLE was ranked tenth against Eastern Conference teams. That means TLE stuggled even more against the supposedly "weaker" Eastern Conference. Guys like Marcus Camby (what is he, 39 years old now?) had a higher efficiency rating against the teams from the East.
Please, stop the ridiculous comparisons. LebRon has easily surpassed TLE as the better player. TLE cannot carry a team the way that LebRon can. I think the author of the article showed that LebRon is the more valuable team player.
from 10 days ago
yO gaz GET UR FACTS STRAIGHT, EVEN LEBRONSE, ADMITS THAT KOBE BRYANT IS THE BEST PLAYER IN NBA PERIOD
2 months ago
ummm..... ok?!? This satisfies those "kobe-hata's' amongst us all, but frankly are meaningless except for those fantasy-league nerds that look at the 'rebound percentage quotient' and break down stats for hours on end to get the best 'adjusted per-minute production efficiency average' or whatever.
Frankly fantasy nerds might go bonkers over those stats, I'd take the on court performance of living Kobe over the real-life Lebron. Thanks for the geek-stats anyways...
from 2 months ago
I do not hate TLE. What I hate are all the gushing school boys who rave that TLE is the best athlete ever to walk this planet. Because of all their posts about TLE being better than Jordan, being better than LebRon, being better than anyone who has ever played a professional sport, I can easily claim that TLE is overrated. A few weeks back I responded to an article on BR where the author claimed that TLE was the most athletic individual in the world. IN THE WORLD! Tell me that people do not overrate TLE and I will easily point you to dozens of bloggers who will prove my point.
Funny how anyone who does not think TLE is the best athlete in the world, or at least the best player in the NBA, is automatically labeled a "kobe-hata" by people like you.
By the way, Bryant does have a tiny left eye (TLE) so that is not hating on the man either. It's a funny but accurate nickname I have given him to intentionally stir up you and others who walk around with 24-hour wood for TLE.
from 2 months ago
Wow gaz you let bloggers make your opinions for you by the looks of it....
from 2 months ago
Pardon my ignorance, but I fail to understand what you are trying to suggest.
I don't see how my response to LakerMike reflects the opinion of other bloggers, but please feel free to explain it to me.
2 months ago
This fails to take into account so many things but a few spring to mind...
How can you compare the personal statistics of either the teams or the individuals when so much has changed in the NBA in the meantime and Lebron was the sole star on what was basically a fairly average team while Kobe was playing second fiddle to one of the most dominant centres ever who was in his prime.
Lebron had one of the best statisitcal seasons on record in '07/08 thats no secret.Its also well documented that Kobe scaled back his game statisitically becasue he was playing with better players.
Finally you cant just simply swap players and compare the results...teams are built around chemistry and roles around their star players.You have to keep in mind what else is there...the cavs with Kobe might leave some gaping holes in certain areas which the lakers with James might not.
I dont know who is better and I'm not arguing for either player in particular but what I do know is your analysis is so flawed it doesnt even support or indicate anything.It offers nothing of value particularly if theres not a huge difference in the results but huge and obvious possibilities for error.
about 1 month ago
Kobe's stats across the board are better vs the west than they are against the east. So this whole "Lebron plays in the East" crap is BS(not the Academic B.S. here). And if you need me to explain this more than its not worth you being on this board or being an nba fan for that matter.
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