College Football: Top 10 Over/Under Win Total Locks of the Year

The following 10 teams are locks to win over the assigned win total Vegas gave them.

For any degenerate out there that doesn't understand the concept, here is an easy example.  Let's say the sports book puts the over/under for a team at nine games.  If the bettor puts money on the over, that team must win 10 games for the better to win money.

Now if the bettor bets the under, that team is only to win eight games or fewer.  If the team wins nine games, it's a push and the money is given back.

So here are the locks of the year.

10. Missouri

Over/Under Odds: 10 wins

What’s not to like about the Missouri Tigers this year?  Returning Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year Chase Daniel (4,306 yards, 33 TDs) and first team Freshman All-American Jeremy Maclin (2,776 all-purpose yards) will give opposing defenses all the trouble they can handle.

The Tigers have perfected the spread offense and have the best captain to run the offense in Daniel.  With a shifty running back in Derrick Washington and four returning offensive linemen, the Tigers will light up the scoreboard.

Although not much of the success the Tigers had last season was credited to their defense, they return eight starters, including their top three tacklers—linebacker Sean Weatherspoon (130 tackles, first team All-Big 12), free safety William Moore (117 tackles, second team All-American), and linebacker Brock Christopher (106 tackles).

The Tigers begin the year with four games at home or on a neutral site.  Out of their 12 regular season games, only four are away.  The toughest task on the road for the Tigers this year will be at Texas on October 18.  The Tigers do not play Oklahoma in the regular season and are hoping to win the feeble Big 12 North.

Turnovers played a key role in the Tigers' success last season at plus-13.  If the Tigers find themselves with a negative turnover margin, they may struggle a bit.

Projected Record: 11-2 (one game over assigned total) 

9. Florida

Over/Under Odds: 10 wins

Look for QB Tim Tebow to repeat as the Heisman winner and win his second BCS National Championship.  Tebow is not only a threat through the air, but will beat you on the ground as well.

The spread attack offense implemented by head coach Urban Meyer wreaks havoc on opposing defensive coordinators because you basically pick your poison.  Either you let Tebow sit in the pocket and pick you apart, or you bring the pressure and let him evade all of the defenders with the option attack.

It also helps to have USC transfer RB Emmanuel Moody in the backfield to take some pressure off Tebow and let him pound out his 1,000-yard season.

The Gators have very talented receivers, led by 2007 first team All-SEC selection Percy Harvin and JUCO transfer Carl Moore from Sierra College in Rocklin, CA, who was rated the top JUCO WR prospect in the nation.  Meyer got Moore to go to Florida by also offering his girlfriend a gymnastics scholarship.

The Gators on defense will be led by junior LBs Brandon Spikes and Dustin Doe, who have a great knack on the football field.

Although the Gators travel to Tennessee, Arkansas, and Florida State, they get LSU and Miami in the Swamp, while playing Georgia in the Biggest Cocktail Party (you can only imagine Bruce Pearl in attendance) in Jacksonville.

With all that said, the Gators have one of the most talented teams in the country, but with the power of the SEC and two tough non-conference foes in Florida State and Miami, we will see if the Gators eat or not.

The Gators' special teams will make plays all year long with KR/PR Brandon James.  Newcomers for the Gators in 2008 to have an impact for the team will be LB Brendan Beal, DB Will Hill, DL Troy Epps, and OL Matt Patchan.

Projected Record: 11-2 (one game over assigned total) 

8. Clemson

Over/Under Odds: 9.5 wins

The Tigers undoubtedly have the best backfield in the nation this year with James Davis (1,101 yds, 10 TDs) and C.J. Spiller (809 yds, 3 TDs), otherwise known as Thunder and Lightning, leading the way.

Clemson returns eight starters on both offense and defense who look to be in the top categories of rushing and passing on both sides of the ball.

WRs Aaron Kelly (1,081 yds, 11 TDs) and Tyler Grisham look to get loose in the secondary for senior QB Cullen Harper, who has matured over the past few years.  Cullen may split time with red-shirt freshman Willy Korn, who has 4.6 speed and a rocket for an arm.

Clemson is considered one of the most athletic teams in the nation with their size and speed, but a cause for concern for the Tigers this year will be their O-Line. The Tigers lose four starters from last year, and one of those holes will be filled by a redshirt freshman.

Even though the Tigers may struggle a bit on the O-Line, they can't be getting any worse by practicing every day against their own D-Line, which ranks in the top 10 in the nation, led by standout freshman Da’Quan Bowers, Ricky Sapp, and Jarrett Crittenton.

The secondary for the Tigers will be a strong point with all four men returning, led by CB Chris Chancellor.

The Tigers benefit from a relatively soft non-conference schedule and open up with their first five games at home or on a neutral site.  I’m sure The Citadel and South Carolina State will be barnburners at Clemson.

Their toughest task will be back to back games on the road in the first weeks of November, first going to Boston College, and then visiting Tallahassee the next week to square off with the Seminoles in the Bowden Bowl.

Newcomers in 2008 for the Tigers who will have an impact are OL Antoine McClain, OL Dalton Freeman, TE Dwayne Allen, and DB Spencer Adams.

Projected Record: 11-2 (one-and-a-half games over assigned total)

7. USC

Over/Under Odds: 10.5 wins

Although the Trojans only return four starters on the offensive side of the ball, it seems that every year they get the top recruits, such as Joe McKnight last season.  McKnight awed the crowd all year with his tremendous ability to burst through holes and make big plays, like the 80-yard TD run in the Rose Bowl against Illinois.

Mark Sanchez will be under center for the Trojans and will try to get the ball to his playmakers as often as possible.  WRs Patrick Turner and Vidal Hazelton are big, physical receivers who will cause problems for undersized DBs.

The Trojans defense will be its strong suit and will be anchored by LBs Rey Maualuga (first team All-Pac-10) and Brian Cushing.  FS Taylor Mays is a ball-hawker who has great NFL potential.

The toughest task on the year for the Trojans will be the home contest with Ohio State, but the advantage the Trojans boast is that they have a bye the week before and after the game.

The Pac-10 will be very competitive this year, but the Trojans get both Cal and Oregon at home, with their toughest road trips coming at Oregon State or Washington State.

For the most part the Trojans have a relatively easy schedule, mainly because of the home games against Ohio State, Cal, and Oregon.  With the suffocating defense the Trojans own, it will be tough for any team to score off the Trojans.

The list of the top newcomers for the Trojan is endless, but the ones expected to fill holes immediately are OL Matt Kalil, WR D.J. Shoemate, TE Blake Ayles, and DL Nick Perry.

Projected Record: 12-1 (one-and-a-half games over assigned total)

6. Ohio State

Over/Under Odds: 10 wins

When looking at Ohio State’s roster, not much has changed from last year's BCS National Championship Game appearance against the LSU Tigers, where the Buckeyes lost 38-24.  The loss marked their second consecutive BCS National Championship defeat, the year before losing to the Florida Gators, led by the dynamic duo of QBs Chris Leak and Tim Tebow.

The Buckeyes return 10 starters on offense and nine starters on defense, leaving only three spots to be filled in the starting lineup.  One of those spots will be filled by highly touted freshman Mike Adams, on the offensive side of the ball at right tackle.

The Buckeyes return Heisman hopeful Chris “Beanie” Wells to anchor the backfield, with composed senior Todd Boeckman under center.

Just when you thought the Buckeyes couldn’t get any better, their defense will once again yield the fewest amount of yards in the nation, led by senior LB James Laurinaitis and lockdown CB Malcolm Jenkins.

The toughest task of the year for the Buckeyes will be a showdown at the LA Coliseum against the USC Trojans on September 13.  If the Buckeyes get a win against the Trojans, look for them to go undefeated in Big Ten play and make their third consecutive trip to the BCS National Championship Game.

The Buckeyes also catch a break this season with Purdue, Penn State, and Michigan, all of whom are expected to do well this season, making the trip to the Horse Shoe.

Incoming freshmen that will have an important impact for the Buckeyes this coming season include QB Terrelle Pryor—although he may not get as many snaps as he would like—OL Mike Adams, OL Mike Brewster, WR DeVier Posey, and LB Etienne Sabino. 

Projected Record: 12-1 (two games over assigned total)

5. Auburn

Over/Under Odds: 9 wins

The Tigers survived an up and down season last year, starting 1-2, going to the Swamp and knocking off the Gators, and finally beating Clemson in the Chick-fil-A Bowl and ending the year at 9-4.

After the schedule Auburn faced in 2007, along with the QB play of Brandon Cox (Tiger fans should be on cloud nine that he graduated), I would be shocked if they did not win 10 games this year.  Last year the Tigers traveled to LSU, Florida, and Georgia, which could be argued are the toughest places to play.  No other team can say they did that. 

In last year’s bowl effort against Clemson, sophomore QB Kodi Burns' stellar play gave hope to Tiger fans for this coming year to see how far he can take the team.  Along with Burns on offense, powerful RBs Ben Tate and Brad Lester will pound out first downs, take a good number of carries, and punish teams with their hard-nosed style of football.

Auburn installed a spread offense two weeks before their bowl game against Clemson last year.  They looked a little confused in the beginning stages of the game, but when the more athletic Burns got the bulk of the snaps in the second half, the system seemed very smooth, and Clemson seemed to be on their heels on defense.

Auburn returns nine men on offense, including all five starting O-Linemen and WRs Rodgeriqus Smith and Montez Billings, who are deep threats and can make plays.

On the defensive side of the ball, not too many names will jump out at you, but the Tigers always have athleticism and speed.  Most notably, DE Antonio Coleman and CB Aairon Savage fit the mold for the Tigers defense.

Although the SEC is by far the toughest conference in college football, Auburn will be the team that edges by the likes of Tennessee, Georgia, and LSU, mainly because those three teams all travel to Auburn, where the Tigers are 47-10 over the past seven years.

Newcomers for the Tigers in 2008 include DL Raven Gray, RB Reggie Hunt, WR Harry Adams, and LB Da’Shaun Barnes.

Projected Record: 11-2 (two games over assigned total)

4. South Carolina

Over/Under Odds: 8 wins

I know, I know: Three SEC teams in my forecast, and I did not mention Tennessee, Georgia, or LSU—but here is my reason.  Georgia has the third toughest schedule in the nation, LSU has a redshirt freshman under center with an inexperienced backfield, and Tennessee travels to UCLA, Auburn, Georgia, Vanderbilt, and South Carolina.

But enough about those teams—let's focus on the Gamecocks, who may surprise some people this year.  South Carolina returns 17 total starters, seven on the offensive side and 10 on the defensive side.

The defense for the Gamecocks will be very strong and must stay strong for the Gamecocks to hold any value in the tough SEC.  The Gamecocks will be led on defense by LB Jasper Brinkley (first team All-SEC, 2006) and Rodney Paulk.

All of the Gamecocks' secondary will return, and the defense will be in the top 10 in the nation in passing yards allowed.  CB Captain Munnerlyn (first team All-SEC) and FS Emmanuel Cook will look to make big plays with interceptions and fumble recoveries and contribute to the defense’s success.

On the offensive side of the ball, QB Chris Smelley will need to step up and fill the void left by Blake Mitchell.  Although Smelley and Mitchell split time last year, both struggled at points in their given time to perform.  WR Kenny McKinley has the best talent of any WR in the nation and will try to make Smelley’s job easier with acrobatic catches.

The toughest task on the year for South Carolina will be the trip to Gainesville, FL and the Swamp in the second-to-last game of the year.  The Gamecocks catch a break this year as they host Arkansas, Georgia, LSU, and Tennessee.

The Gamecocks' success relies heavily on Smelley—if he moves the chains, look for the Gamecocks to move up in the polls.

Projected Record: 10-3 (two games over assigned total)

3. Fresno State

Over/Under Odds: 8.5 wins

In the 12 years as the head coach of Fresno State's football program, Pat Hill has never won the WAC conference title.  This is the year Hill gets his title, as 10 offensive starters return to a team that finished 9-4 last year and knocked off a talented Georgia Tech team in the Humanitarian Bowl.

Led by QB Tommy Brandstater and potent RB Ryan Mathews (900 yards, 14 TDs), the Bulldogs will put up points in bunches.  WRs Marion Moore, Bear Pascoe, and Seyi Ajirotutu can all make game-changing plays.

All but one of the starting O-Linemen from last year are returning, so Brandstater will be given the time to pick apart defenses and let his playmakers make plays.  The O-Line will be the strongest part of the team, and if they open up holes for Mathews, he will have a very successful year.

Although the Bulldogs lose top tackler Marcus Riley (132 tackles), they return seven starters, three of which are junior defensive backs.

Fresno is known for its speed and athleticism and finds a way to win bowl games, winning four out of their last five.

The Bulldogs do not have an easy schedule—they travel to Rutgers in the first week and two weeks later host Wisconsin, who have a great rushing attack in P.J. Hill and an experienced O-Line.  Two weeks after Wisconsin, the Bulldogs travel to UCLA, then host the always dangerous Hawaii offensive attack the following week.

In the final regular season game, the Bulldogs trek to Boise for a much-anticipated battle with the WAC championship possibly in the grasp.  If the Bulldogs put some wins together in the early part of the season, they will run the table and beat Boise.

Projected Record: 11-2 (two-and-a-half games over assigned total)

2. Oklahoma

Over/Under Odds: 10 wins

The Sooners are led by gunslinger Sam Bradford, who was the most efficient passer in college football last season, boasting 36 TD passes to only eight interceptions.  It helps to have receivers of the likes of Juaquin Iglesias (907 yards) and TE Jermaine Gresham (11 TD receptions), both of whom are returning.

Bradford is also elated to welcome back all of his starting offensive line, which is the main reason why I believe the Sooners will be very successful this year.  The O-Line is massive up front, averaging 6'5" and 317 pounds.  Last year the line opened holes for 191 rushing yards per game and only allowed 14 sacks all season.

Led by LG Duke Robinson and LT Phil Loadbolt, the Sooners O-Line has combined for 130 starts, which is the most in the NCAA this year.  Look for sophomore RB DeMarco Murray to led the NCAA in rushing yards this year, especially with the holes that will be opened up for him.

The Sooners are stacked on defense with DE Auston English, LB Ryan Reynolds, and S Nic Harris.  DT Gerald McCoy received Big 12 Defensive Freshman of the Year honors, and he is expected to have a huge year as well.

The Sooners' schedule is in their favor.  The front-runners to contend with Oklahoma in the Big 12, Kansas and Texas Tech, both make the trip to Norman.  Like every year, the Red River Shootout against Texas will be held in Dallas at a neutral site.

You may be wondering about Missouri, but the Sooners and Tigers do not meet in the regular season, hopefully setting the stage for an epic Big 12 conference title game.

Besides the neutral site matchup against Texas, the toughest game on the road for Sooners will be at Washington.  Look for Washington to surprise some people this year with second-year QB Jake Locker under center and Tyrone Willingham in his fourth year at the helm.

I know many fans are wondering how that will be their toughest road game, but take a look.  The rest of the games on the road for the Sooners are Baylor, Kansas State, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma State.  I may be a Pac-10 fan, but I know the Sooners have the number on those teams.

Texas Tech in Norman on November 22 will be a game to keep tabs on.

Newcomers for the Sooners who look to have an impact immediately will be LB J.R. Bryant, DL R.J. Washington, RB Jermie Calhoun, and WR Jameel Owens.

Look out for the Sooners this year!  They will be crowned BCS National Champions.

Projected Record: 13-0 (three games over assigned total)

AND THE 2008 OVER/UNDER LOCK OF THE YEAR IS (Degenerates, put the kids' college fund on this team):

1. Utah

Over/Under Odds: 8.5 wins

If the Utes can get by Michigan in the first week of the season at the Big House, they will run the table the rest of the reason and cause problems for the BCS in yet another year.  Utah is in a non-BCS conference (Mountain West) but has the opportunity to put some wins together with a strong offense and players returning from an injury-plagued team last year.

The Utes return eight starters on offense and six on defense.  Senior QB Brian Johnson will conduct the offense, but the bulk of the load will be carried by RB Darrell Mack (1,204 yards, 12 TDs), who can deliver a blow to any opposing tackler.

The Utes run a spread offense with WRs Brent Casteel and Brandon Godfrey being heavily relied on to catch short to intermediate passes and move the chains.

K/P Louie Sakoda has unlimited range and can pin opponents deep in their own territory.

The backbone of the Utes defense will be their secondary, led by CB Brice McCain, CB Sean Smith, and FS Robert Johnson.  DL Paul Kruger and NT Aaron Tonga will secure the defensive line and try to clog up holes so LB Stevenson Sylvester can make plays.

As mentioned earlier, the toughest task for Utah will be their first game at Michigan.  In conference play, the Utes travel to Air Force, Wyoming, New Mexico, and San Diego State.  Utah hosts UNLV, Colorado State, and BYU.

A non-conference game that may give the Utes trouble is Oregon State, but the game will be played on Utah’s home turf.

Newcomers for the Utes looking to have an impact are WRs David Reed, Aiona Key, and DL Dave Kruger.

Projected Record: 13-0 (four-and-a-half games over assigned total)