A lot of people have the opinion that preseason polls don't matter.
Well this is a look at preseason polls and just how much they do matter in winning a national title. Overcoming a low, or even non-ranking in a preseason poll is the most difficult obstacle for an undefeated team to overcome on the road to the national championship. With the addition of the BCS, this has become even more important since if you aren't number one or number two, you have no shot at a title. Strength of schedule also has become more important in winning a title.
With the help of my buddy Stuart Carter, let's take a look at the importance of preseason polls in college football, using Auburn's 2004 season as a reference.
Preseason to No. 1
Always a popular debate among college football fans is the current system of ranking the teams, which includes preseason polls. For Auburn fans, this topic became a primary issue when the 2004 Auburn Tigers were left out of the BCS National Championship game. By the end of the 2004 regular season, the so-called experts in an attempt to justify the matchup of Oklahoma and Southern Cal questioned Auburn’s strength of schedule.
We could debate all day long who deserved to be in the BCS Championship Game in 2004, but in the end a worthy team was going to be left out. This is why under the current BCS system preseason rankings are sometimes the first major step toward being crowned No. 1 at the end of the season. Being ranked in the top five to start the season won’t always get you there but it can increase your odds.
History of preseason rankings...
From 1960-2007 there were 57 teams crowned No. 1 by the AP, UPI or BCS. Of those 57 teams, 27 (47.3 percent) began the season ranked in the top five of the Associated Press Poll. More than 75 percent (43) began the season ranked in the top 10 and 84 percent (48) were ranked in the preseason top 15. Only six teams started the season unranked and three of those teams were from the decade of the 1960s. This included Minnesota in 1960, USC in 1962, Michigan State in 1965, Clemson in 1981, BYU in 1984 and Georgia Tech in 1990.
Broken down by decade, here are the average preseason rankings of the eventual national champion.
1960-1969 10.0
1970-1979 4.7
1980-1989 11.7
1990-1999 6.3
2000-2007 7.4
When you consider that nearly half of the national championship teams were ranked in the preseason top five and 75 percent were ranked in the top 10, it’s indicative that preseason rankings play a major role in deciding the eventual champion. This is the very reason why Auburn was left out during the 2004 season. Auburn began the season ranked No. 17 in the AP Poll while Oklahoma and Southern Cal held the top two spots. Auburn was able to climb the polls but unfortunately for the Tigers, they finished the regular season third in the polls.
Preseason No.1 and No. 2
From 1960 through 2004 there have only been two seasons that the preseason No. 1 and No. 2 stayed in the top two slots before the bowl games. It happened during the 1970 season when Ohio State and Texas started the season No. 1 and No. 2 and remained in the top two slots by time the last regular season game was played. It did not happen again until 2004. For Auburn, it was simply bad timing to go 12-0 before the bowl games. Any other season other than 1970 or 2004 and Auburn plays for the national championship.
Strength of Schedule...
In terms of strength of schedule, the 2004 Auburn Tigers had it tougher than more than 70 percent of the eventual teams crowned No. 1 from 1960-2007. Of the 16 teams that had a greater strength of schedule, only four of them finished the season undefeated and untied. Thirteen teams actually had a strength of schedule below .500, which was a primary reason those 13 teams combined for a record of 149-0-1. The 1980 Georgia Bulldogs had the weakest strength of schedule followed by Brigham Young in 1984.
A primary factor in winning it all is the schedule. The 1983 Auburn Tigers proved it was not worth the risk of playing a difficult schedule being snubbed by the voters with Miami ’s Orange Bowl victory over the Nebraska Cornhuskers. What Auburn accomplished during the entire 1983 season did not carry the same weight as Miami’s bowl win. The 2006 Florida Gators had the greatest strength of schedule among the other mythical national champions but it was Southern Cal’s loss during the last week of the regular season that gave the Gators a shot at Ohio State in the BCS Championship.
Get more college football talk at my blog, Gridiron Guru.
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2 months ago
Good stuff Justin. Must have taken a while to get all these numbers.
Key importance here: pre-season polls are hugely important in the over-all outcome of many seasons, but may not be accurate. Often teams, like Auburn, are snubbed because of a bad pre-season prediction.
I wonder how many times a team has gone through a season winning more than they should just simply based on an intimidating pre-season poll ranking. On the flip side, how many times have good teams that were unranked in pre-season gotten overlooked simply because people thought they were not going to be good?
from 2 months ago
Thanks. Yea it was interesting. I was just blown away at the horrible timing for Auburn to have their greatest season ever.
Of course preseason polls reflect good teams, so good teams win titles.
But you better be in that top 7 in the nation or your chances are slim.
from 2 months ago
Thanks. Yea it was interesting. I was just blown away at the horrible timing for Auburn to have their greatest season ever.
Of course preseason polls reflect good teams, so good teams win titles.
But you better be in that top 7 in the nation or your chances are slim.
2 months ago
Yeah, Auburn 2004 says it better than anything else.
from 2 months ago
Yea it really does. If Auburn has that season in any other year in the last 40 years, they are playing for the national title. How unlucky to have that great season at the absolute worst time.
2 months ago
What's also frustrating about preseason polls is that for the most part, they represent predictions for what will happen by the end of the season, not a subjective ranking of how good the teams are.
For example, a lot of voters may think Georgia is the best team in the country, but not vote them number one because they think the Dawgs' schedule is too hard for them to go undefeated.
It's just frustrating that these predictions for the end of the season are so influential in dictating those very end-of-season polls.
It's like if the Kentucky Derby were to let the horse with the best odds have a head start in the race.
from 2 months ago
You echo my frusterations as well. Preseason polls are exactly that, PRESEASON polls. They shouldn't be predictions on the season as to where teams will finish.
You should start the season ranking the best teams, regardless of what their record might be of their schedule. If they have a tough schedule, it will play out that way. But you shouldn't rank a team low because you think they might finish a certain place.
2 months ago
I agree with your article, but I wish the powers that be would put an end to preseason polls. The first polls should come out at about week 5 or six like the BCS.
from 2 months ago
I agree with that 100%.
Unfortunately, preseason polls still interest us the fans, so they're going to come out until they stop selling papers. I guess there's a slim chance that the AP might change, seeing as they removed their poll from the BCS after that controversy.
from 2 months ago
I definitely agree with your opinion... In fact, I am willing to take it ONE step farther:
Just throw the rankings out the door, lolz :)
2 months ago
Good article. I hate preseason rankings altogether. It's like starting a race with everyone at different starting points. There's also confusion of what preseason rankings are. Are they a starting point or are they a prediciton of how they will finish?
Preseason polls are still around because the ESPN, ABC, CBSs want it. They can sell their early matchups. Even though a top 10 team in Sept can be a 6-6 team come Dec.
2 months ago
BCS is just BS. Preseason rankings should be thrownout the window and rankings should come out after 3 or 4 games have been played. The bowl games then should be changed to a playoff system (very easy fix) then you can crown a real NC (National Champion), not a MNC. ( Mythical National Championship
from 2 months ago
"BCS is just BS. Preseason rankings should be thrownout the window and rankings should come out after 3 or 4 games have been played. The bowl games then should be changed to a playoff system (very easy fix) then you can crown a real NC (National Champion), not a MNC. ( Mythical National Championship"
I couldn't agree more with your comment :)
2 months ago
Obviously, preseason polls aren't going anywhere. And it's for the same, bottom line reason the playoff isn't happening anytime soon. Money. There's too much involved in preseason talk, hype, debate, interest, etc. TV, magazines, and newspapers sell it, and we can't get enough.
The problem with the BCS eliminating the preseason influence is the polls that carry so much weight in the formula. Even if the Coaches Poll waits until 4-5 games into the season (which they won't because of money), it would still be influenced by the hype that all the other polls and media outlets produce before the season starts. It would be just like the Harris Poll. They basically just look at those sources that do have preseason rankings and start from there.
There's another huge problem with the BCS formula: the polls that make them up. I certainly don't think the AP is completely unbiased or flawless, but compared to the Coaches Poll, it's great. At least the AP writers watch the majority of the games. It's common knowledge that SIDs do a lot of the voting. It's not the coaches fault entirely, they simply don't have time to keep up. A great example of the ridiculousness of the Coaches Poll is Steve Spurrier's vote for Duke in every poll. I think it's funny, but come on. That is not the place for funny.
2 months ago
Good stuff Justin, I was just in the middle of writing a similar article on my page when I stumbled across yours.
2 months ago
there once was a team who lost at home to an unranked opponent giving up 50 points. 170 hours later they moved from 7 to 2 in the bowls and the ncg having lost twice in their last 7 games.
there was another team who at the same time had won 6 straight by 75 points and went down in the polls. even when 2 of the 3 teams in front of them lost.
did that answer all the questions presented in this article?
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