Facts Uncovered: Why Injuries Stopped Arsenal Title Victory

A week has passed since Arsenal's defeat to Spurs and I am one of the many bitter Gooners who is still frustrated at what could have been.

I haven't been able to face going to work since that match and after deciding that I may return after the weekend, seeing the collapse of the lifeline handed to Arsenal after Chelsea's defeat to Spurs and the inevitability that I will have to face the idiotic brand of football fan that can only be associated with Manchester United, my decision to work from home this week was reinforced.

This morning I did a little research and, if I'm honest, my findings annoyed me somewhat.

I felt I had to vent and that some positives may be taken from my ramblings. You will have to decide whether you agree or not but this is my way of getting over it.

You will also probably realise that this is as much of a hate filled rage at Manchester United as a passionate rallying cry to all Arsenal fans.

Anyway, here goes:

Robin Van Persie has missed 23 Premier League games this season. In the 11 games leading up to his injury he had scored seven goals and assisted seven. His hold up play and the ability to bring others into the game as the focal point of Arsenal's attack meant that the Gunners were averaging 3.26 goals per game. 

Then came injury.

The average came down to 1.77 goals per game. 

Of course this is where squad depth comes into play. If football was a fairy tale then Arsenal's second choice centre forward would have come in to save the day.

He was also injured. Nicklas Bendtner missed 12 of the 23 league games that Van Persie was out for. 

In their absence Arsenal coped admirably but points were dropped and the lack of a centre forward was apparent in the two defeats to Chelsea and the match with Manchester United at the Emirates in January. Those matches were crucial.

Bendtner came back and Arsenal looked better for it. Fans were given hope. In the 10 league games since his return from injury he has scored five and assisted five (Not counting the sub appearances against United and Chelsea).

Bare in mind Super Rooney has only picked up three assists this season. Of course, he's scored 26.

Now for a little comparison between Arsenal's fragile Dutchman and England's only hope for winning the World Cup.

 These stats can't ever really be taken seriously as it's pure speculation. However, I'm going to throw them out there anyway.

Rooney, who has managed to play in 30 of Manchester United's 35 games so far this season, has scored 26 (as I've already stated) and assisted three. For the sake of making the math easier I'm going to state that if Van Persie had played in 33 games and maintained his level of form he would have scored 21 and assisted 21 in those 33 games.

Of course we all know it doesn't work like that but it makes interesting reading.

Maybe it's easier to point out that if Wayne Rooney had been injured in the 11th game of the season and returned in game number 34, he would have only scored seven of his Premier League goals this season, which leaves him on the same total as...I don't need to say. It's okay, Berbatov would have kept United in the title race with his 12 goals and four assists in 30 games. 

In 11 of the 12 games that Van Persie and Bendtner both missed, the makeshift option was Andrei Arshavin. This meant that Arsenal effectively lost their first choice left winger in this run of games. I'm not going to elaborate on the lack of Andrei in his natural position, but you only have to look at his performance in the Porto match when he finally returned there.

 

It's frustrating for us Arsenal fans out there when we hear the Manchester United fans trying to blame the fact that Rooney missed the crucial title decider against Chelsea (RVP missed both Chelsea games and the second against United) or that they are still trailing Chelsea because of a run of a small number of games without a recognised central defender.

To be fair Nemanja Vidic and Rio Ferdinand have only played six games together this season but it's not too bad when you've got Jonny Evans coming in. Arsenal have a good young centre back as well. What's his name? He was one of the highlights of last season's poor performance...Johan Djourou. Oh yeah, out for the season. Shame.

Still I'm proud of the Arsenal, who also lost Fabregas for eight of the games that Van Persie missed. They made it to game 34 being just three points behind the leaders having had to cope with all of the above.

It was extremely disappointing that when it came down to the crucial run-in we were missing Gallas, Fabregas, Arshavin, and Song (disgrace how he wasn't in the running for young player of the year) and then Vermaelen went off injured against Spurs.

At least we got to see Van Persie for 20 minutes, and what a fine 20 minutes it was. It showed us what we were missing.

 

I think with any three of the above fully fit Arsenal would have had enough to beat Spurs and Wigan and would be level with Chelsea at this point. Don't even get me started on the fact that they had to play our third choice left back play seven games in a row earlier this season.

What happened at Wigan was unforgivable. The lineup put out had enough to win that game and it was embarrassing to throw away at lead like that.

The silver lining could be that a few players will learn from what happened in those final minutes and hopefully Wenger will learn that Fabianski isn't a reliable deputy to the already shaky No. 1 at the club.

That said, for me the Arsenal lineup on that day summed up the luck they've had with injuries. People can point the finger and give the easy answer by saying that the squad wasn't strong enough. Maybe they're right, but at times Arsenal haven't just missed first team players, the squad players have been missing as well. Ramsey, Gibbs, Djourou, to name a few.

I think Arsenal can take a lot from the season. There seemed to be a strong mental attitude in the squad and the amount of late winners and equalisers scored, along with the fact that Arsenal remained in the title race despite the fact that they haven't fielded their strongest 11 in any game this season, showed this.

Players like Alex Song, Abou Diaby, Nicklas Bendtner, and Aaron Ramsey showed a great improvement on last season while Fabregas hit another level all together.

The major disappointment was the performances against Chelsea and Manchester United where Arsenal enjoyed a lot of possession without being able to do anything with it. They were punished and it was frustrating to see Arsenal suffer from defensive lapses collectively and individually in all four of those matches. 

However, the first leg against Barcelona should give the team the confidence to put those performances behind them. Arsenal's boys were battered and had their fair share of luck in that match. They went down 2-0 and found themselves in a similar situation as they did against Chelsea and United, but this time they came back.

Hopefully that will be in their heads if they face similar circumstances in the future. That day they did have an answer and it was against the best team in Europe.

So what does this all prove? Other than the fact that I have too much time on my hands this morning....

You can only speculate but I personally think that Arsenal would have won the league if it wasn't for the injuries this season. They're only a few players away from having a title winning squad and although some have not impressed, others have come on leaps and bounds this year.

As a fan, I hope we will prosper like Barcelona, a club that didn't win a trophy for six years between 1999-2005. Like Arsenal at the moment, they gave exciting youngsters such as Victor Valdes, Xavi, Carles Puyol, and Andres Iniesta crucial first team experience. We have to remember how young this Arsenal team is.

There is a sense that Arsenal could have done something in the January transfer window. Maybe those who claimed this were right. However, there's always a flip side though, and it's easy enough to apply the Championship Manager "can do better" attitude when looking at the situation from the outside.

Wenger could've signed a striker but he was right in saying that you still have to pay the wages for your injured players and anyone else who is added to the squad. United would have done it though wouldn't they?

Maybe that's one of the many reasons that they are in such a shocking financial state? Not the main reason but one of them. I don't know if you've seen Arsenal's financial records at the moment but it's all pretty healthy. Wenger is probably right when he claims that Arsenal isn't the only top-four club in decline. 

When signing players you have to consider the long-term effect.

It's easy enough to say we need a player now but what happens afterwards? What would have happened if Arsenal had signed a striker for £10m plus a £70,000 a week, only for the player to be warming the bench when the brilliant Robin Van Persie came back to fitness?

That is how clubs get into financial trouble. Arsenal fans should be delighted that the man in charge at their club is well aware of the financial ramifications of too many players on high wages. Need I write about Leeds and Portsmouth?

On a personal note I'm hopeful that Chelsea will hang on. I think Arsenal would've overtaken them if it wasn't for injuries, but at the end of the day there aren't many Chelsea fans in my area and the summer will be more peaceful if United aren't crowned Champions.

Keep your heads up fellow Gooners. This will all be forgotten in August.