NBA Draft: College Players Shouldn't Declare in Fear of an NBA Lockout

As of today, 56 underclassmen have declared for the NBA draft.  

That's not even considering seniors or international players that will end up declaring by April 25.

There are only 60 spots in the NBA draft.

Unless a prospect withdraws his name for consideration by May 8, he loses his college eligibility.  The draft isn't occurring until late June. (Hell, by May 8, the lottery hasn't even happened yet.  Chalk this up to another brilliant NCAA rule change.)

See where I'm going with all of this?  If this many underclassmen stay in the draft, there's going to be a boatload of disappointed, undrafted players come NBA draft night. Are you ready for an influx of talent, D-League?

This happens every year—far too many players throw their names into the draft, eventually realize they're not all going to be first round picks, and withdraw their names before its too late.

Only this year, most of those "should withdraw" guys are likely to end up staying in the draft.  

Why?  A number of them have cited "concerns about a potential NBA lockout next year" as a motivating factor to declare for the draft this year.

I'm here to say that's garbage.

Let's make one thing clear from the start: No matter what happens with a lockout next year, there will be an NBA draft held in 2011.  That should put to rest any concerns of players being forced to stay in school an extra year, with two years worth of college prospects declaring in 2012.

To get a better idea of how rookies' contracts would be affected by a lockout, let's remember the last lockout in the NBA from the 1998-99 season, when the League shortened its season to 50 games.

Rookies back in '98 (including Paul Pierce, Vince Carter, and Antawn Jamison) earned their full salaries, despite the shortened season.

As long as the next year's lockout doesn't last the entire season, the 2011 rookies will earn their full rookie salaries.

So, when's the last time the NBA locked out for an entire season?

Oh, right.  Never.

In other words, the only thing prospects have to fear, in terms of being able to enter the league next season, is the potential of an unprecedented full season lockout.

Can we please stop repeating the "players who come back one year might have to come back two years" nonsense?  

Instead, here’s something to consider for those players leaving now because they’re scared of 2011: Anyone who leaves this year may end up hurting themselves more than helping if a lockout occurs.

An NBA rookie’s contract is only guaranteed for two years under the current CBA.  If a rookie under-performs his first season, the team has from only July through October 31 to pick up the player's third-year option.  Considering that the lockout would begin on July 1, it's not unreasonable to say that team owners may have slightly bigger things on their mind than renewing underachieving rookie contracts after next season.

Long story short, if a rookie doesn't live up to expectations next season, a lockout could cost him a second guaranteed contract.  

The players' big fear with the lockout, instead, is the (slight) possibility that they're drafted in 2011, but don't start earning paychecks until 2012.

Now, the reason the league's facing a lockout in the first place is because the collective bargaining agreement between the NBA and its players is set to expire July 1, 2011. The two sides aren't remotely close to common ground as of now, leaving players to already begin preparing for a lockout after next season.

When a new bargaining agreement is negotiated, owners are sure to lobby for less guaranteed money in players' contracts, as one bloated mistake of a contract (Gilbert Arenas for the Washington Wizards or Elton Brand for the Philadelphia 76ers, perhaps?) can suffocate a franchise for a half-decade under the current CBA.

But, there's one thing that seems unlikely to undergo heavy renovations, and that's the rookie salary scale. NFL fans routinely refer to the NBA's slotted rookie salary scale as an example of how to fix the NFL's broken rookie contract system...mainly because this rookie salary system works .

Players earn a fixed amount of money based upon where they're drafted; first-round picks are guaranteed a two-year contract with a third-year team-option, and teams have the option of signing their second-round picks to the same deal.  The NBA devised a simple, effective way to keep vultures (agents) away from the bargaining table for the first few years, and it works like a charm.

Some franchises near the top of the lottery may begrudge the amount of guaranteed money for a player (upwards of $5 million per year for the top picks in the draft), but again, it's only a two year deal.   Joe Alexander found that out the hard way this past season, as the Bucks declined his third-year option before trading him to Chicago in February.

Even if the NBA decides to modify the contract structure of rookies, the ones that'll be most affected are the lottery picks, and it's impossible to begrudge a guaranteed lottery pick for declaring for the draft anyway .  (Put it this way: If someone offered me millions of dollars to drop out of college and follow my life's passion, I wouldn't have thought twice before leaving?)

But lottery picks aren't the ones declaring when they shouldn't be.  I'm writing this for all those borderline first-round picks that could be lottery picks next year, or the borderline second-round picks who would solidify their place in the draft with one more year of college experience.

If you honestly think you're ready to go on and compete at the next level, then who are we, the fans, to stop you?  

But if you're basing this on an uninformed financial decision, figuring a guaranteed contract now is better than a possibly locked out contract next year, remember that you're relying on the unprecedented to occur for you not to earn your rookie salary.

And if you're truly not prepared for the next level, you could be costing yourself your best shot at a successful NBA career.