Will There Really Be a Chase?

In seven weeks there will be two different reactions from the NASCAR faithful. When the championship standings are reshuffled after the twenty-sixth race of the year at Richmond International Raceway, many will be saying "Thank goodness" that Kyle Busch doesn't have a one million and one point lead, that's if you're one of the people rooting for one of the other eleven chasers or just waiting for Busch's big downfall.

If you are a Kyle Busch fan then you'll probably be heard saying "This is not fair," and yes it does sound familiar because Jeff Gordon fans were screaming it last year.

When NASCAR created the Chase for the Championship in 2004 the drivers were seeded exactly how they were in points after twenty-six races, just separated by five points. That, ladies and gentlemen, was a true chase.

Last year's Chase for the Championship and this year's will prove the flaws there are with the new rules. In 2007 Jeff Gordon dominated the regular season, as Kyle Busch has this year, except when the Chase started Gordon was seeded second in points behind Jimmie Johnson and had a twenty point deficit to overcome since Johnson had two more victories than Gordon. Johnson would run away with the title because he kept winning, just as Kyle Busch is.

The final race had the two separated by 86 points which mathematically kept Gordon in the hunt but not realistically. All Johnson had to do was log laps.

This year when the Chase begins Kyle Busch would have a 50 point advantage on Carl Edwards and Kasey Kahne, that's only if the 42 other competitors can keep him from winning between now and September-very unlikely.

It's true that Kyle Busch is not the champion and he shouldn't be crowned yet. So here's why the Chase for the 2008 Championship will and will not work.

Why It Will:

For the first time since who knows when, the point gap between first and second will be less than three digits. This will give someone, anyone, a chance to steal the title that everyone believes Kyle Busch already has his name on.

The last ten races will also be the time that if Kyle Busch's dream season is going to become a nasty reality, that's the time. Fans love to see an underdog win and this year with Kyle on the track, everyone's an underdog.

These are the races that the drivers in the top twelve will be waiting for, to show what they've got and take home the championship.

However the biggest reason the Chase will work as it did last year is that fans will watch because no matter what it will be exciting. They could turn their TVs off and prepare for next year since Kyle has a commanding lead as Gordon did last year-but in seven weeks, that lead disappears. And for a while it becomes exciting again.

Nothing is a sure thing yet and everyone's going to want to tune in to see if Kyle Busch can keep the dream going.

Why It Won't:

Lets say that the Chase for the Championship started today; Kyle Busch would lead second place driver(s) Carl Edwards and Kasey Kahne by fifty points and lead twelfth place driver Jeff Gordon by seventy. That's a lot of points and a big lead to start and the way that Kyle's been running, by the end of the first race he could and probably will have a hefty point lead.

There goes the excitement.

Kyle Busch would need to sit at home or take a vacation in order to give anyone a real chance to slug it out for the title for the full ten weeks going into south Florida on November sixteenth.

The NASCAR sanctioning body wanted to give 12 drivers an equal chance at the title and tighten the point standings for excitement. Except in order for it to be a real chase the points need to go back to being five apiece and then everyone will be able to see how good they are and if Kyle Busch can keep the momentum going when it matters most.

And it gives no one a chance to breath, the time to log laps is over, go out and get it if you want it.