I want to start by offering my apologies for the lack of an All-Star-Game post today. If you want a good recap of how Minnesota performed in the game, be sure to head over to Seth Speaks or Josh's Thoughts.
I was going to focus my post today on the All-Star Game, but I thought everyone would have a much better time speculating about the future of the Minnesota Twins and Seattle's Adrian Beltre.
I posted yesterday about third base, and came to the conclusion that the Twins should trade for Beltre.
After discussing things over with Twinkie Town's Jesse Lund, we came to the conclusion that a three-team trade would work the best. The only question that remained was which third team Seattle and Minnesota would deal with.
After hours of research, I have come up with what I think are two of the more likely possibilities. The first of which involves the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Here is the groundwork of the possible trade:
Minnesota gets:
Adrian Beltre, 3B, from Seattle
Yunesky Sanchez, SS, from Arizona (Double A Mobile)
Seattle gets:
Michael Cuddyer, RF, from Minnesota
Luke Hughes, IF, from Minnesota
Tim Raines, OF, from Arizona (Triple A Tucson)
Konrad Schmidt, C, from Arizona (High A Visalia) OR Sean Coughlin, C, (Single A South Bend)
Arizona gets:
Livan Hernandez, SP, from Minnesota
Raul Ibanez, LF, from Seattle
Let's dig through this now, and I'll explain my reasoning behind everything.
Seattle is in a rebuilding mindset. They want to get rid of Raul Ibanez because he is 36-years old, and they have Shawn Garrett waiting in AAA Tacoma, should they fail to acquire a left fielder in any trade this year.
On top of that, his $11 million contract expires at the end of 2008. They would try to get what they can out of him before he walks. The Arizona Diamondbacks would love Ibanez. He could fill in for an injured Eric Byrnes this year and would allow them to free up Conor Jackson.
The Diamondbacks, despite struggling of late, still have a probable chance at winning the NL West, and would jump at the opportunity rent a player like Ibanez, if even for half a year, to help them secure the division and make a playoff run.
Seattle would also love to get rid of Adrian Beltre and dump his $13.4 million contract on someone else. That is their main goal, but if they could get a good prospect and an immediate impact player in return, they may offer to foot a portion of the "Beltre bill".
While Minnesota would hate to part with Cuddyer and Hughes, the opportunity to be able to start Beltre at third through 2009 is certainly appealing. The Twins would also receive shortstop prospect Yunesky Sanchez. He shows some promise and is young, but he isn't a top prospect in the league. It wouldn't matter all that much, though, as long as Minnesota got Beltre.
The outfield in the Twin Cities is crowded anyway, thanks to the recent call-up of Denard Span. As much as it pains me to say it, Cuddyer could be replaced. As to Hughes, he probably wouldn't crack the major leagues for a few years in this organization, but could probably make the Mariner team in 2009 if given the chance.
The Mariners are also in need of a catcher. Kenji Johjima and his .213/.237/.292 line are not pleasing to Seattle fans. A prospect like Schmidt would be a sight for sore eyes. Or, if they preferred younger player, Coughlin is also very promising.
Now to Livan Hernandez.
This is the perfect opportunity for the Twins to unload this veteran pitcher on a team that needs an end-of-the-rotation guy. The first three in the Arizona rotation have been lights-out in Webb, Haren, and Davis. Micah Owings has also emerged this year and has been a solid fourth pitcher.
Randy Johnson, however valuable he is to getting people in the stands, has been nothing short of awful. His ERA of 5.23 and his record of 6-7 have left many things to be desired. Arizona has the need for a fifth man and Hernandez could fit that bill perfectly.
Now, I have no clue how Arizona would handle a situation like this, nor do I care to discuss it. I haven't the foggiest idea how the Diamondbacks would go about getting rid of the Big Unit, but they would have to for this deal to succeed.
Let's review. Minnesota gives up a great prospect and an impact outfielder, and gets in return one of the best third baseman in the league and a shortstop prospect.
Seattle gives up two good players; one of which is old, the other has a huge contract. They don't want either age or big contracts as they are in a rebuilding mindset. They get, in return, a great MLB-ready outfielder that is very cheap, two top prospects, and another prospect.
Arizona gives up one great prospect and two other good prospects for an innings-eating starting pitcher and a veteran outfielder.
Any thoughts on this possible trade? What tweaks would you make? Can you see this happening?
comments (37) write a comment »
write a new comment
about 1 month ago
That's pretty impressive. If the Twins were to somehow work this kind of a deal out, it would be a major coup. I wouldn't change a thing, but I am not sure anyone will take Hernandez right now (or Cuddyer, for that matter).
Creating a rotation controversy involving Hernandez, a former D'Back, and Randy Johnson, a current D'Back and future HOF, might not be palatable to the Arizona front office. I am also not 100% convinced Hernandez would be a vast upgrade in comparison. Then there's the box office impact to consider, as you point out yourself.
However, if Arizona were willing to accept this deal, I think the Twins would be stupid to say no. No chance Seattle balks, either.
from about 1 month ago
I agree. If this trade went through I would not envy the Dbacks position in the least.
Thanks!
about 1 month ago
As a M's fan, I hope this trade doesn't go through. Beltre is one of the only Mariners working to improve and Raul is one of the only solid players on our team. I think we'd need more for them then that.
from about 1 month ago
You would still want him and his $13.4 million salary?
about 1 month ago
"Micah Owings has also emerged this year and has been a solid fourth pitcher."
Owings has been terrible. That's where Hernandez would fit in. Send Owings to Triple A and put Hernandez in the rotation. I'm a Cardinals fan, so I could care less about the Diamondbacks.
Beltre isn't one of the best 3Bs in the league. He's actually, in my opinion, quite awful. He had one good season in LA (his walk year) and the Mariners are learning from their mistakes of signing a crappy 3B who had one good year.
If I were the Mariners, I wouldn't get so greedy. I'd say take out the last person from the Mariners and Twins gets, and then Hernandez. No Sanchez, no catchers and no Hernandez. The Twins still have a chance to win this thing and they don't need to give up their most consistent pitcher AND one of their best players for a bad 3B and a minor league player.
Take out those names, and it's more than likely fair. Maybe take out Hughes and replace him with Sanchez. That way, the Twins are trading Cuddeyer straight up for Beltre, and the Mariners are trading Ibanez for a prospect and a former Major League player.
from about 1 month ago
I'm going to have to agree with the comment below. Beltre is great. While he might not be the best 3B in the league, he will put up 20 HR consistently.
As to Owings, he's putting up number I would expect of a fourth starter: 6-8, 5.02 ERA, 100.3 IP. I wouldn't call him "awful" just yet.
about 1 month ago
I have to dissagree with Joel about Beltre being a poor third baseman. True, he will probably not even scrape the production he had in 2004 with the dodgers, but he'll give you 20+ homers, and he got the gold glove last year. He's probably got the strongest 3b arm in the league. He's also still relatively young at 29, and $13 million isnt too far off what he could get as a free agent today anyways.
And to respond to the post, though it sounds like a fairly even trade all around, Shawn Garrett is not the answer to the mariners in left field. I doubt he is even on the radar of the M's front office. The only outfielder in triple A that may be able to have an impact is Wlademir Balentien, even though he had an awful average in his time with the M's, he still hit 5 bombs. If the M's are going into rebulding mode, they need some offensive prospects
from about 1 month ago
Thanks for the comment. You are one of the few who agree that this is a pretty even trade all around.
Thanks!
about 1 month ago
Seattle doesn't need a catcher - not only is Johjima signed through 2011, but their best prospect, Jeff Clement (their #1 pick in 2005) is a catcher! Do your homework before saying Seattle needs a catcher...
about 1 month ago
Shawn Garrett? What did you do, just look at the AAA roster? Garrett will be 30 in November -- he's not a prospect whatsover. If you don't have knowledge of what a team's farm system is like, read a few articles, do some research instead of trying to make it sound like you know what you're talking about. I you can't do even a minimum of research then perhaps you should leave the writing to writers...
from about 1 month ago
Actually... I've seen this team play 15 or 20 times this season and Shawn Garrett is a heck of baseball player. I did some digging and he has been on the verge of the big leagues three of the last four seasons and endured some injuries a few years back that evidently through him out of whack pretty good. He's the only switch hitter on this team and when he's played, he's shown he can produce.
He may not be the answer, but the only reason he is not considered a "prospect" is because of his age. Tough to be a 29 year old prospect. Talent-wise, he's a more consistent OVERALL player than W.B. or anyone else on this roster.
Just my opinion, but obviously you've been to more than 15-20 games this year?
about 1 month ago
That is well thought out. However, the Twins are very unlikely to part with Cuddyer after just signing him to a long term contract. The Twins probably would not part with Hernandez either because he is such an influence on the young rotation. All the young pitchers on the team has said he has made a huge impact on them. However, I do not know who they would trade for Beltre. Most of the players have been very important to the team's recent success. It will be very interesting to see what Bill Smith does.
from about 1 month ago
Thanks for the comment. Like I said above, I feel this trade deadline will reveal a lot about the future of the Twins and whether or not they will be major players in future trades.
It could also demonstrate his commitment to winning.
about 1 month ago
Beltre has been a bust since being picked up as a FA!
from about 1 month ago
I'm curious as to how you would classify this as a bust.
He is hitting .259/.329/.440 this year, and his career average is .271/.327/.458. He had one great year, before he was picked up the Mariners, were he hit .334/.388/.629 in his walk year with the Dodgers.
How does one good year classify a player as a bust?
about 1 month ago
They gave him how many million?
from about 1 month ago
He is making $12 million this year. Randy Johnson is making $10 million. Giambi is making $21 million this year. Bobby Abreu is making $14 million this year.
Actually, on the Mariners, Carlos Silva will make $11 million next year. Miguel Batista is making $9 million.
The Mariners have the ninth richest payroll in baseball. They can afford to spend $12 million on a guy who bats .259/.329/.440.
from about 1 month ago
Fair enough, but that doesn't necc. justify his exorbitant salary.
from about 1 month ago
In today's market, his salary is actually quite reasonable, IMO.
about 1 month ago
The Mariners don't need a catcher they already have Jeff Clement and Shawn Garrett? Are you kidding me?
from about 1 month ago
If you are talking to me, I said that Seattle needs a catcher. J, above, said that they don't.
from about 1 month ago
I was responding to the article. Why do you think that Seattle needs a catcher?
from about 1 month ago
Because Kenji is hitting .213/.237/.292.
Jeff Clement is tearing up the minors, but only hit .165/.258/.349 in his 34 big league games. As to Garrett, he's 30 years old.
They need someone from outside the organization.
about 1 month ago
Beltre is one of the better offensive 3rd basemen in the MLB, probably in the top 5 defensively, and is only 29 years old.
The prospects you listed the Mariners receiving, none of them rank in either Arizona or Minnesota's top 30 prospects.
Schmidt is an almost 24 year old hitting .250-ish at A ball.
Coughlin is similar but 22 years old
Raines is 28 and has struggled in the bigs.
Hughes is also almost 24, and is small. His size probably puts him in the middle infield, but who knows if his bat translates.
How about this as a set of prospects.
From Twins
Deibinson Romero, 3b
Loek Van Mil, RHP
From D'Backs
Javier Brito, 1b
from about 1 month ago
Sorry, but you don't seem to have a handle on Minnesota's prospects. First off, Luke Hughes is in the top ten. There are numerous lists out there that prove this. Here is one that was just updated last night:
http://www.sethspeaks.net/
As to Romero and Van Mil, neither of them are in the top 50.
from about 1 month ago
I based my judgement off of Baseball America's preseason rankings, which I feel are more credible than "Seth's"
Minor League Ball's preseason rankings don't have Hughes in the top 20, nor did they have Van Mil
AmrchairGM's top 10 doesn't include either
Hughes has never had a season like this before, and considering the Mariners already have Betancourt at SS, and either Lopez or eventually Triunfel at 2nd, Hughes value would probably be low for the Mariners, but I could be wrong.
I'd look at corner infielders, outfielders, and of course pitching for the prospects that would net Beltre.
from about 1 month ago
Two things. First off, Seth Stohs is easily the best minor league blogger, of the Twins certainly, of the MiLB probably.
Second, Baseball America's Preseason Rankings are exactly that: preseason. This is more than half way into the season, and much has changed.
Anyway, I re-did this trade and took out Livan, Cuddyer, and Ibanez. Check it out!
about 1 month ago
Interesting deal here Andrew... I definitely can see 'Zona going after a major bat as their offense needs a spark. As for Hernandez... I don't know. I don't know how much rotation help they need, but it's still interesting thinking.
about 1 month ago
Andrew, I don't know what team you've been watching but Randy Johnson is a number 2 starter on any team other than the Dbacks and Red Sox. He has been nothing short of dominant but has suffered from a lack of run support. To say that he has no business even being a number 5 starter is just stupid-silly. If anything, Owings has been the one who has completely lost command. Did you see him walk 6 and hit 3 the other night? Sure he pitched out of it but we were playing the Nationals. To even consider getting rid of Johnson in favor of someone like Livan makes no sense. Since allowing Hammock to catch for Johnson, he has been back to his old self. He only suffered because of Montero.
On top of that, Livan didn't want to re-sign with AZ at the end of last year, why would he want to come back to AZ this year. After pushing the team to the NLCS, he obviously wasn't happy with such a successful team, there is no indication that he should come back when we are significantly worse than we were last year. Also, Livan is just another slow finesse guy which is not what the Dbacks need. He is one more excuse to keep Montero on the roster.
Sure the Ibanez deal makes a bit of sense but it really doesn't provide a better bat. Jackson is hitting better than Ibanez and provides similar defense. A guy like Kenny Lofton is much more appealing than Ibanez simply because he provides a true lead off hitter and an upgrade in LF.
from about 1 month ago
You can't blame lack of run support on a 5.23 ERA.
If you give up that many runs a game you can't blame your offense.
from about 1 month ago
He had a 5.00 ERA and won 17 games with New York....sounds to me like he had plenty of run support.
He had two bad outings, one where he gave up 7 runs in 3.2IP and another where he gave up 7 in 4.1IP. Those ballooned his ERA. Also, in that 4.1 IP game, the inning where he gave up the runs also featured two errors by the Dbacks.
Simply put, when Hammock catches for him, he's lights-out. The Montero experiment was a bust but it wasn't Randy's fault. ERA means nothing. A 1.41 WHIP is decent and a 3:1 K:BB ratio is solid.
Let's take a guy like Jon Lester, a guy who most teams would love to have. He has a 1.33 WHIP and a 2:1 K:BB ratio. Which is more effective? Both are pretty much the same but Johnson has better control and strikes out more guys. Johnson gives up home runs but the stadium. lgERA is 4.51 so Johnson isn't horribly off the mark when it comes to giving up runs. The only reason guys like Webb and Haren are so successful is because they are sinker ball pitchers.
from about 1 month ago
The 2006 Yankees averaged 5.74 runs a game, while the 2008 Diamondbacks are only averaging 4.4.
And a WHIP of 1.41 isn't decent, it's pretty bad. Barry Zito has the lowest in the league with 1.79, Johnson has the 29th worst of all starting pitchers who qualify. As a matter of fact, there are 70 other starting pitchers who have allowed less walk and hits per inning than the Big Unit.
from about 1 month ago
You must not understand how WHIP works.
Walks + Hits / Innings Pitched. A LOWER number is better. 1.79 > 1.41 : Johnson's WHIP is better.
As far as I can tell, Danny Haren's 0.95 WHIP is the best in the league. Hamels is down there too with a 1.02. Guys with WHIPs like Johnson's include:
Aaron Harang (1.40), Randy Wolf (1.40), Roy Oswalt (1.38), and Jason Marquis (1.43)
I'm pretty sure a team with those four, along with Johnson, would dominate NL hitters.
from about 1 month ago
I know what WHIP is. We all know how bad a pitcher Zito is, I wasn't comparing Zito and Johnson and saying Johnson was worse.
I was saying that Zito was the worst in the league, and showing that Johnson wasn't far behind him.
Lol, I know what WHIP is...
from about 1 month ago
There is kind of a huge difference between 1.79 and 1.41....0.38 actually. That pretty much translates to an extra baserunner every other inning.
Any comment on Johnson's WHIP being similar to the four guys I mentioned? Because I think that really would make for a dominant rotation. But according to you, these are guys whose days are numbered and should just be dumped.
Let's look at a different stat: K - (BB+HR) Higher the number, the more effective the pitcher is. Basically this stat removes fielders from the equation; no blaming poor defense or defensive shifts. Historically great pitchers have high numbers. We are talking about the things that are in control for the pitcher alone.
(Generally considered the best pitcher in the NL this year)
Volquez: 126 - (56+5) = 65
(The lowest ERA in the NL West)
Lincecum: 135 - (47+7) = 81
(The Dbacks' rotation)
Haren: 112 - (22+10) = 80
Webb: 112 - (33+8) = 71
Owings: 85 - (35+12) = 38
Davis: 61 - (38+7) = 16
Johnson: 95 - (28+15) = 52
(Generally the best of the worst in the NL)
Barry Zito: 62 - (60+9) = -7
(The guy you wanted to start instead of Johnson)
Livan Hernandez: 45 - (23+15) = 7
Sure Johnson isn't lights out like he used to be (1999:264, 2000:248, 2001:282, 2002:237) but compared to the rest of the NL and his own team, he definitely deserves to be a number 5 starter, if not the number 3.
from about 1 month ago
I don't know what the purpose of this discussion is. Can we just agree that Johnson is an average pitcher? I think that's a concession from both sides.
from about 1 month ago
The point is that you called him "nothing short of awful" when he is clearly average if not above average. To suggest that a guy like Owings should be kept around over Johnson and then insist that Livan would be an upgrade is just wrong. I'm not a big Johnson fan but I appreciate what he brings to the mound every fifth day for the Dbacks.
write a new comment