2010 Big 10 Race Wide Open

It's that magical time of year when spring games are coming to a close, football fans are abuzz with hopes and dreams, and virtually anything is possible. 

The regular season is over four months away. 

Until the pigskins start flying, we can imagine that all the new talent gracing our favorite teams' rosters will gel perfectly with returning veterans and transform our teams (or maintain in some cases) into conference and national powerhouses. 

In the backs of our minds, we know that's not really the case. 

There are those teams within the Big 10 that have the tools and experience to play for a conference title and there are those who are more than one recruiting class away from even thinking about it. 

It's still fun to hope.

Reading through the myriad blogs, articles, and comments however, you might get the impression that the conference race is a fairly closed deal. 

Depending on the site visited you'll see prognosticators bouncing between an Ohio State/Iowa showdown in late November for the conference title, a Penn State/Ohio State race into the final week of regular season play, or an occasional Ohio State/Wisconsin race. 

That about sums up the depth of the predictions.

Certainly Ohio State needs to be in any discussion.  After all, they are the five-time defending conference champs and have plenty of talent on the roster to make it six-in-a-row.  Don't allow your vision to be narrowed to just the boys in Silver and Crimson out of Columbus. 

The race in 2010 is still wide open.

The Real Contenders

Ohio State  

As I mentioned before, the discussion does have to start with the Buckeyes. Not only have they won or shared the conference title each of the last five years, they're also bringing back a lot of key contributors from last year.

The offense returns junior QB Terrelle Pryor who, with two years of experience under his belt, should be looking forward to his best year in a Buckeye uniform. 

Along with him, RB Brandon Saine returns to add to his 5.10 yard-per-carry average from last year. 

DeVier Posey and Dane Sanzenbacher come back to anchor a receiver corps that could explosively dangerous if/when Pryor decides to unleash the football.

Defensively, the Buckeyes return all-star linebackers Ross Homan and Brian Rolle, along with defensive backs Chimdi Chekwa and Devon Torrence.  The lines on both sides should be good, leaving very few holes for opponents to exploit.

The schedule is comfortable, but has its share of pitfalls. 

Miami (Fl) comes to Columbus on September 11th. The Buckeyes travel to Madison to face the Badgers on October 16th. Then there's the consecutive games against Penn State and at Iowa in mid-November that should decide the conference title. 

Everyone else is entirely beatable, if not a sure bets for the Buckeyes. 

They just have to watch out for the likes of Purdue on October 23rd and Michigan in their annual rivalry game.

The title is theirs to lose, but that doesn't mean it'll be an easy cruise to Pasadena (or Glendale, as Buckeye fans are hoping.) 

Any of the other contenders could unseat the Buckeyes, and last year's gaffe against Purdue showed that anything can happen on any given Saturday.

Iowa

Surprisingly, for all the attention the Hawkeyes have gotten thanks to an 11-win 2009 season and subsequent dismantling of Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl, I haven't seen many prognosticators picking Iowa to win the conference title. 

The truth is, the Hawkeyes need to be seriously in the discussion.

The offense brings back senior QB Ricky Stanzi, who may not have had the greatest stats in the conference the last few years, but has a record of 18-4 as a starter at Iowa. 

Stanzi is the hands-down leader of the Hawkeye offense and gets the best out of his teammates. 

The Hawks are loaded at RB with three capable options. 

Adam Robinson returns from his 834 yard season with a wealth of experience. He'll likely continue to split carries with true sophomore Brandon Wegher who posted 641 yards of his own and had a breakout game in the Orange Bowl. 

Helping them is the return of Jewel Hampton, who relieved Shonn Greene very capably in 2008, but sat out last year with a torn ACL. 

The receiver corps is amongst the most talented in Hawkeye history with Derrell Johnshon-Koulianos, Marvin McNutt, Collin Sandeman, and star-to-be Keenan Davis. 

Defensively, the Hawkeyes return most of their star studded group from last year. 

The entire line, anchored by All Big Ten end Adrian Clayborn, is intact.  The linebackers replace departed stars A.J. Edds and Pat Angerer, but still have Jeremiah Hunter and some great talent that's been patiently waiting their turn on the field. 

Safeties Tyler Sash and Brett Greenwood, who terrorized opposing offenses last year, are both back. 

The corners miss Amari Spievey, but shouldn't drop off too badly, especially with Sash/Greenwood helping back them up.

All-in-all, Iowa returns most of their best players from a year ago and, if the O-Line can play even as well as they did last year, this group should be able to hang with anyone in the conference.

The schedule is lighter than a year ago. 

Iowa State is never an easy opponent and going to Arizona the next week (Sept. 18) won't be easy. 

Iowa gets Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Ohio State all at home.  Traveling to Ann Arbor could be iffy, but winnable as will the November 13th trip to Northwestern. 

There are plenty of pitfalls, but the toughest opponents come to Iowa City.

The Hawkeyes know how close they came to winning the conference title last year.  They won't be taking for granted how tough it will be to take that extra step this year.

Penn State

The main talk around the Nittany Lions, in conjunction with a conference title, seems to center around their history. 

They're Joe Pa's crew, so they're bound to be in the hunt, right? 

The Lions will be in the hunt, but not just because they're the products of a living legend. 

Gone is QB Daryl Clark but, with all due respect to Clark's talent, that could end up being a good thing. 

Clark was fine against weaker opposition, but got rattled against the better defenses. Whoever replaces Clark, as long as they can keep their composure, may well be an improvement for the Lions.

Returning for the offense is RB Evan Royster, who had a slightly down year last year and still put up 1169 yards and averaged 5.70 yards-per-carry. 

With a likely increased workload, Royster could top the rushing leader board by the end of the season.

Derek Moye, Graham Zug, and Chaz Powell return to the fetch the ball from the sky.  All had solid seasons a year ago and should be improved. Should Joe Paterno opt for more of a passing QB, rather than running QB, these guys could explode this year.

The defense does miss all three linebackers, but they're not exactly "rebuilding."

This is Linebacker U and there is plenty of talent that will be ready to step in and continue the tradition. 

The line should be fine, anchored by Ollie Ogbu and filled out with plenty of young talent.  The returning secondary can account for 30 of the 50 broken passes from a year ago. 

They'll be just fine.

The thing that jumps out at me with Penn State is the balance they have between offense and defense. 

They have a strong rush attack, a dangerous pass attack, a good rush defense, and a dangerous pass defense.  They may not sit atop any of those statistical categories at the end of the season, but they'll solidly contend in all of them, and that will keep them in the title hunt all year long.

The schedule isn't all that bad, but does include some pretty tough road games. 

National title talk will either ramp up or die out completely after September 11th when the Nittany Lions travel to Alabama to take on the defending champs. 

They also have to travel to Iowa City on October 2nd and to Columbus on November 13th. 

They get to bring Michigan, Michigan State, and Northwestern into Happy Valley.  They miss Wisconsin and the rest of the schedule is very winnable. 

If Penn State can split the Iowa/Ohio State matches and beat the teams they should beat, the Nittany Lions could be punching a ticket back to Pasadena for January 2011.

Wisconsin

The Badgers have few excuses for not challenging for a conference title in 2010.  Almost everything is in their favor.

The offense brings back the majority of its Big Ten leading offense. 

QB Scott Tolzien is back under center.  Last year he completed 64.3% of his passes for 16 TDs and 11 INTs. 

Also returning is RB John Clay, who led the Badgers to the best rush attack in the conference last year.  With over 1500 yards rushing and 18 touchdowns, Clay should be in the discussion for several major awards, including Heisman Trophy (in my opinion.)

The only contributing receiver that left the Badger camp was TE Garrett Graham. 

Nick Toon, Isaac Anderson, Lance Kendricks, and David Gilreath are all back again.  As long as the line can give Tolzien an opportunity to get rid of the ball, he's got plenty of talented receivers/tight ends to choose from.

The defense returns seven of its top ten tacklers from 2009.  LB Culmer St. Jean, DB Devin Smith, and LB Chris Borland return from the top five. 

There will still be a few holes to fill for a defense that ranked fourth in the conference in total defense last year. 

LB Jaevery McFadden will be missed, as will DE O'Brien Schofield.  Still, while this is a defense that won't wow many people, it should be sufficient to give the offense opportunity to win games.

The schedule is the one factor that could elevate Wisconsin into the league of elites.  The Badgers open up on the road at UNLV, then return home for (what should be) a relatively easy stretch that sees them facing San Jose State, Arizona State, and Austin Peay. 

Their conference schedule sees road dates at Michigan State (October 2nd,) at Iowa (October 23rd,) at Purdue (November 6th,) and at Michigan (November 20th.)

They should win at least three of those dates. 

Their toughest home dates are against Ohio State (October 16th,) and Northwestern (November 27th.) 

That's about it.  No one else on the schedule should even keep it close.

Wisconsin's schedule really comes down to three games: Ohio State, at Iowa, and Northwestern.  Win two out of those three and they've got an inside track to Pasadena seeing as how they haven't been there since 1999.

Michigan State

Yes, I'm really putting Michigan State in this group.  Last year, they faltered mightily, but they've got some things going for them that could actually see them wielding the conference trophy when the smoke clears in November.

For starters, the Spartans bring back one of the better QBs in the league — Kirk Cousins. 

Cousins completed 60.4 percent of his passes and tossed 19 touchdowns despite sharing time with Keith Nichol. 

Nichol is a receiver now, so Cousins should get pretty much all the snaps, and he has some help.

Larry Caper made big strides last year and will return this year with a ton of experience.  Should he struggle, fellow sophomore Edwin Baker boasted 5.02 yards per carry last year and is more than ready to pick up where he left off.

The Spartans return the majority of their leading receivers, including B.J. Cunningham, Mark Dell, and Keyshawn Martin.

Defensively, Michigan State brings back one of the best linebackers in the nation in Greg Jones.  They also bring back Chris L. Rucker into the secondary, along with Trenton Robinson.

They've got some strides to make defensively, for sure.  Still, there are pieces there for Mark Dantonio and company to work with. There are signs that this year's unit will be improved over last year's .

Don't forget that three of their seven losses last year were by a field goal or less.  The loss at Wisconsin was only by eight.  

This is a team that was very close to having a ten-win season.

The schedule isn't a cake walk, but it could be much worse.  Their toughest out-of-conference game is against Notre Dame on September 18th at home.  They also get Wisconsin at home and miss Ohio State altogether.

They do however, have to go on the road to play Michigan, Northwestern, Iowa, and Penn State.  The Spartans should win at least two of those, could easily win three, and have the potential to win them all if the defense improves and they get a little luck.

It would be foolish to write Michigan State out of the title hunt with the weapons they have at their disposal.

Sleepers?

It might have been a little more prudent to put Michigan State in this category.  There are one or two teams around the conference that could sneak into the Rose Bowl while no one's looking.

Northwestern

The Wildcats made a run at the title in 2008, but came up short in the long run. 

Last year, they were two wins short of that goal, but still had a 5-3 conference record. Their still looking for their first bowl win since 1949, and having that win come in Pasadena is a little bit of a long shot. 

"Long shot" isn't "impossible" though.

QB Mike Kafka has moved on and Dan Persa is taking over. 

Persa completed 58.8 percent of his passes and tossed two touchdowns and two interceptions. He only had 34 attempts though. His legs will do as much for the Wildcats as his arm will.

Running backs Arby Fields and Scott Concannon aren't show stoppers, but they're adequate and they're young. 

The receivers will have a slightly different look without Andrew Brewer and Zeke Markhausen, but Drake Dunsmore got quite a few touches last year, and both Sidney Stewart and Jeremy Ebert are returning. 

The offense isn't exactly filled to the brim with all-stars, but it has enough pop to keep defenses honest.

Defensively, the Wildcats were middle of the pack in 2009. 

They stayed around fifth or sixth in the conference in every major defensive statistic.  Expect more of the same in 2010. 

Northwestern returns four of their top five tacklers from 2009, and seven of their top ten.  They'll sorely miss Corey Wooton at end, but return Quentin Davie and Nate Williams at linebacker. 

There's plenty of young talent all around the field and we should see marked improvement in just about every category except maybe "sacks."

There's no Ohio State on the schedule, but the Wildcats do have to travel to Penn State and Wisconsin. 

They get Iowa at home though, as well as Michigan State and Purdue. 

I don't expect this Wildcat team to upset the Nittany Lions, nor slow down John Clay and the Badgers.  They have proved they can beat the Hawkeyes though, and they have the tools to knock off the Spartans. 

If they can win the games they're supposed to win, beat the two biggest contests that come into their stadium, and strip one away from either PSU or Wiscy, Northwestern could slip in the back door to Pasadena.

I wouldn't put money on them to represent the Big Ten in the Granddaddy of Them All, but I wouldn't count them out either.  Stranger things have happened.

Michigan?

No.  Sorry Wolverine fans, but this isn't quite the year.  You're getting close, though.

Spoilers

Michigan

Here's where the Wolverines fit for 2010.  They may not do enough to win a conference title, but they can certainly make life miserable for some of the top contenders.

I won't get into the entire breakdown of the team like I did for those above.  It's not necessary here.

Keep this in mind: Michigan lost to Iowa by only two points on the road. The week before that, they lost to Michigan State by only six, again on the road. They lost to Purdue by only two points. They lost to Ohio State by 11, which isn't nearly as bad as it may sound considering Michigan was led by a true freshman quarterback and was still trying to put all of Rich Rod's pieces together.

Tate Forcier has a year of experience under his belt and a little pressure from new recruit Devon Gardner.  QB shouldn't be a position of concern for Michigan this year. 

The running back position could be interesting now that Brandon Minor has moved on, but with Forcier under center, the option will be there and I don't worry about the ground attack.

The question will be on defense. 

Last year, Michigan was near the bottom of the Big Ten pile when it came to defense. Rodriguez brought in 17 new defensive recruits, but how many of them will be ready to go come September is anyone's guess. 

If they can make even marginal improvements on defense, Michigan should be able to pick up a couple additional wins over last year. 

More importantly, one good defensive stand could have ended Iowa's conference title dreams much sooner than Ohio State did last year.  They could spoil the party for absolutely any of the top contenders.

Purdue

Yes, Purdue, and not just because they upset the Buckeyes last year. 

Purdue has fielded some dangerous offenses in recent years.  They've just never been able to put together an explosive offensive performance with a decent defensive one. 

This year, the Boilermakers have a lot of potential on offense again.  Ralph Bolden could be one of the premier running backs in the Big 10, if he would be given a real chance to carry more of the load. 

There is a huge group of veteran receivers who are more than capable of opening up the air game. 

The question is, who will be throwing to them? 

Joey Elliott has moved on and Purdue is auditioning for the next great quarterback to follow in the mold of Drew Brees.

I'm not naive enough, nor self depricating enough to suggest that Purdue will challenge for a conference title. Hardly. 

They do have the talent and fire down below to knock off some of the contenders, though. Buckeye fans can claim that their team was looking ahead last year (and there may be a measure of truth to it,) but the game I saw had a highly motivated Boilermaker team playing up to their full potential and getting the kind of win they're truly capable of.

If this team ever figures out how to put it all together for more than one game, they could be really dangerous to anyone in the Big Ten.  Look for some very interesting stuff from Purdue this year.

What about....?

Minnesota?

The Golden Gophers have talent.  They have a solid quarterback in Adam Weber; a solid running back in Duane Bennet (and DeLeon Eskridge;) and good receivers in Dajon McKnight, Troy Stoudemire, and Hayo Carpenter.  

They've got a lot of holes to fill on defense though, and I strongly question how good they'll be against the top teams in the conference. 

I would be pretty surprised to see the Gophers become bowl eligible again. 

Their schedule is pretty tough. They have USC on September 18th, a decent Northern Illinois team the week after, road trips to Wisconsin and Michigan State, and back-to-back matches against Penn State and Ohio State. 

Plus, they get to end the season against Iowa, which hasn't gone well for them the last couple of years.

The last couple of years, Minnesota has relied extremely heavily on Eric Decker.  When he went down with injury each of the last two years, the Gophers struggled or outright folded.  Now he's gone for good and, if they don't find a way to work as a total team, they'll get buried before they even really begin.

Illinois?

The Fighting Illini have had many chances to work their way into the conference title discussion. 

With Juice Williams and Arrelious Benn, plus a stable full of competent running backs, they've had the talent to do some special things. 

What they got was a surprise Rose Bowl appearance after the 2007 season, followed by two disappointing seasons that culminated in a three—nine showing last year.

Williams has moved on now and it still doesn't look like Ron Zook has figured out how to right the ship.  There's not a lot going on in Champagne to make me believe that Illinois is in for a turnaround. 

Indiana?

The Hoosiers have some things to be happy about. 

Ben Chappell is back under center and there's some exciting things potentially happening with the running game. 

The receiving corps should be pretty decent as well.

Again, defense is the question. 

Indiana blew several leads last year and handed away some wins. 

Head Coach Bill Lynch is focusing very hard on finishing their games strong. It's possible that Indiana could surprise some people this year and give some teams real fits. 

This is a very strong Big 10 conference though, from top to bottom, there's plenty of talented players and coaches. 

A "pretty good" Indiana team can look "pretty awful," when they're constantly getting beat by the likes of Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Michigan State.

Look for improved play from the Hoosiers, but don't look for them to seriously challenge any of the front runners.

Agree with me or disagree, this is the beauty of college football in April. Nobody really knows much of anything. 

One thing I will argue fervently right up until kickoff time though, is that the conference race is anything but decided. 

There are at least four teams that can battle for that top honor and several teams that are capable of ruining those title dreams.  Whoever you like, don't get too confident just yet; the race is still wide open.